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永安期货纸浆早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:01
纸浆早报 | | 文化用纸 | | 包装纸 | | 生活用纸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 双胶指数 | 双铜指数 | 白卡指数 | | 生活指数 | | 2025/09/23 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/24 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/25 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/26 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | 双胶利润率估算 双铜利润率估算 | | 白卡利润率估算 | | 生活利润率估算 | | 2025/09/23 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.6876% | | 2025/09/24 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.7258% | | 2025/09/25 | 1.9958% | 15.6563% | -12. ...
基本面持续偏弱,浆价震荡寻底
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 07:14
风险提示:供应端出现意外收缩 基本面持续偏弱,浆价震荡寻底 杨枭 首席分析师(化工) 从业资格号:F3034536 投资咨询号:Z0014525 行情回顾 三季度纸浆价格持续震荡 港口木浆库存高于往年同期 资料来源:iFind 资料来源:隆众资讯 4,200 4,700 5,200 5,700 6,200 6,700 7,200 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 元/吨 纸浆期货主力合约收盘价 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2025 2024 2023 2022 万吨 u 港口库存持续高于往年同期凸显出了今年纸浆供需的疲软。在此情况下,三季度纸浆盘面整体偏弱,7月 反内卷带动商品整体上扬使得纸浆跟随上涨,但随着反内卷的退潮,纸浆再次跌回低位。 周 基本面分析——供给端 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12 ...
永安期货纸浆早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:51
Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 25, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On September 24, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5044.00, with a 0.71885% increase from the previous day. The converted US dollar price was 618.06. The Shandong Yinxing basis was 566, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 581 [3] Import Profit Calculation - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion was -145.57, for Canadian Lion was -533.29, and for Chilean Yinxing was -91.92. The previous day's exchange rate was 7.12 [4] Price Averages - From September 18 - 24, 2025, the national average prices for softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong regional average prices also remained unchanged [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) remained unchanged from September 19 - 24, 2025 [4] Profit Margins - The double - offset profit margin on September 24, 2025, was 1.9642%, the double - copper profit margin was 15.6172%, the white card profit margin was - 12.6135%, and the living paper profit margin was 6.7258%, with a 0.0382 change compared to previous data [4] Price Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 1370.00, the softwood - natural price spread was 210, the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 1785, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4034 [4]
需求疲弱,成本支撑,纸价低位震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:52
需求疲弱,成本支撑,纸价低位震荡 银河化工 研究员:朱四祥 期货从业证号:F03127108 投资咨询证号:Z0020124 目录 1 227/82/4 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 基本情况①价格: 70g双胶纸企业含税均价为4742.9元/吨,环比持平。② 供应端:本期双胶纸产量20.9万吨,较上期增加0.4万吨, 增幅2.0%,产能利用率56.7%,较上期上升1.0%。行业盈利水平仍较低,工厂转产情况存在,部分新增装置生产趋稳,行业货源供应 有所增量。需求端疲弱:下游消费提振动力不足,部分印厂开工水平不高,用户采买积极性一般,刚需补单为主。③针叶浆现货含税均 价5650元/吨,环比上期下降0.8%;阔叶浆现货含税均价4191元/吨,环比上期上涨0.1%。 ...
高库存,高产量,纸价走势乏力
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:51
高库存,高产量,纸价走势乏力 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 银河化工 研究员:朱四祥 期货从业证号:F03127108 投资咨询证号:Z0020124 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 基本情况①价格:双胶纸产量20.5万吨,较上期增加1.0万吨,增幅5.1%,产能利用率55.7%,较上期上升2.8%。② 供应端:双胶纸产 量20.5万吨,较上期增加1.0万吨,增幅5.1%,产能利用率55.7%,较上期上升2.8%。行业盈利水平仍较低,工厂转产情况存在,部分 新增装置生产趋稳,行业货源供应有所增量。需求端疲弱:出版招标订单释放有限,零星低价压制市场预期。③针叶浆现货含税均价 5694元/吨,环比上期下降0.3 %;阔叶浆现货含税均价4189元/吨,环比上期持平。 【逻 ...
纸浆:供需基本面略有改善,浆价小幅反弹
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 06:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and the pulp price has rebounded slightly. The pulp futures price of contract 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 5180 this week [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp remained stable, while the prices of broad - leaf pulp increased slightly. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained unchanged compared to the previous week [11][14] - **Pulp Futures**: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight up - and - down oscillation and rebounded last week, closing at 5018 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (or + 0.56%) [15] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 632 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing by 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [19] - **Log Futures**: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a slight oscillatory rebound last week, closing at 805.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (or + 0.88%) [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 51.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons (or + 7.69%). The production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased, and it is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 23.2 tons and that of chemimechanical pulp will be about 22.0 tons this week [22] - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rates of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp both increased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will not change much next week [25] - **Monthly Production**: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly, with wood pulp production rising and non - wood pulp production remaining flat [27] - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the capacity utilization rates of chemimechanical pulp and broad - leaf pulp both decreased [32] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp increased month - on - month, and the loss of chemimechanical pulp decreased [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume increased year - on - year [37] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of household paper decreased slightly, while those of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased. It is expected that the production of household paper will be about 27.9 tons, offset paper about 20.6 tons, coated paper about 8.5 tons, and white cardboard about 36.0 tons this week [39][43][46][47] - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: The gross profit of household paper decreased, while that of white cardboard increased slightly. The loss of offset paper decreased slightly, and the gross profit of coated paper increased [49][53] - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In August 2025, the actual pulp consumption increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price**: The prices of household paper and cultural paper remained stable, the price of whiteboard paper increased slightly, and the price of white cardboard remained basically stable [57][60] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port has all increased [61][63] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous week, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.27% [65]
能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 06:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short - term. High port inventories, slow de - stocking, and weak demand prevent significant price increases, while firm foreign offers, cost support, and potential pre - National Day restocking limit the downside [99][100] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 508,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (9.5% YoY); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,432,000 tons, up 14,000 tons (1.0% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 49,000 tons, down 9,000 tons (15.5% YoY). The total inventory of major ports was 2,112,000 tons, up 50,000 tons (2.4% YoY) [5][6] - Chile's Arauco company's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quoted price remained at $700/ton, broadleaf pulp Star increased to $540/ton, and natural pulp Venus remained at $590/ton [6] - Chenming Group's Shouguang Base No. 8 plant with an annual output of 800,000 tons of high - grade coated paper started operation. Sichuan Xianhe New Materials plans to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper production capacity [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 632 yuan/ton, down 4.24% MoM; the basis of Russian Needle was 182 yuan/ton, up 1.11% MoM; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, down 6.25% MoM [18] - **Monthly Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 298 yuan/ton, down 3.47% MoM; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 80.00% MoM [24] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The needle - broadleaf spread narrowed. The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The price of pulp futures first rose and then fell. The price of broadleaf pulp showed a narrow - range upward trend [28][34] - **Supply**: The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with some increases. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp decreased. In July, the European port inventory decreased slightly, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased seasonally. In July, the export of coniferous and broadleaf pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, etc. changed [45][54][60] - **Demand**: The demand for downstream base paper was weak. The white cardboard market was relatively better, the offset paper market was bearish, and the household paper market was weak. In August, the retail sales of terminal demand areas for pulp increased seasonally [99][84] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of major ports was at a medium level this year, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased slightly [96][87]
纸浆周报:低位震荡,关注需求企稳情况-20250919
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 08:28
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Low-level Fluctuation, Pay Attention to the Stabilization of Demand - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2511, rebounded from the bottom and then declined, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Price - As of September 18, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44%, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.02%, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to August - In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.545 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.36 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [16] Port Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points [20] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [24] Downstream Pulp Operating Rates - Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption. Non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of September 18, the operating load rates of double-coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.29, 0.66, 0.16, and 2.51 percentage points respectively week-on-week [30] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume showing a stable performance. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of pulp export quotes for September: softwood pulp Silver Star at 700 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Venus at 590 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Star up 20 US dollars/ton to 540 US dollars/ton. With the new round of export quotes rising, some industry players are reluctant to sell and hold prices. There is a tentative price increase in the spot market of imported softwood pulp, but the profit margin of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the conversion period between the traditional off-season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the stabilization of downstream demand for a real "reversal". The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long position at low prices [35]
纸浆早报-20250917
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:16
General Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - Closing price on September 16, 2025: 5068.00 [3] - Price changes from September 10 - 16, 2025: 0.52314%, 0.40032%, -0.51834%, 1.32265%, 0.23734% respectively [3] - Discounted US dollar price on September 16, 2025: 621.53 [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis on September 16, 2025: 582 [3] - Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing basis on September 16, 2025: 612 [3] Import Pulp Price and Profit - Calculated with 13% VAT, import profits of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion and Chilean Yinxing are -145.57, -533.29 and -212.83 respectively [4] Pulp and Paper Price and Margin - From September 10 - 16, 2025, there is no change in the national average price of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp, as well as the average price in Shandong region [4] - From September 11 - 16, 2025, there is no change in the prices of cultural paper (offset index, coated index), packaging paper (white card index) and household paper (household index) [4] - From September 11 - 16, 2025, the changes in estimated margins of offset paper, coated paper, white card and household paper are -0.9701, -1.6070, 0.0368 and -0.4202 respectively [4] Pulp Price Spread - On September 16, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper are 1460.00, 250, 1825 and 4074 respectively [4]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250916
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 00:47
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 0.91% overall, with the pre - settlement price at 5276 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5324 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The offer price of Shandong Yinxing is 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's August wood pulp export quotes were stable compared to June. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased month - on - month by 3.2% and year - on - year by 4.1%. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month by 7.9% and year - on - year by 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week. The downstream cultural paper market is running weakly, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of pulp futures rose 0.91%. The 05 contract rose 0.76%, and the 09 contract rose 0.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable. Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Arauco's August quotes were stable compared to June. In July, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major producing countries increased. China's pulp imports in August decreased. The inventory as of September 11 increased. The downstream cultural paper market has resumed production, but new orders are limited, and the pulp market will continue low - level fluctuations [8]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which will improve the standard system and promote the healthy development of the industry [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]