上期所计划 2025 年中暂停布针品牌针叶浆入库，现有约 22 万吨布针 仓单将在 2025 年底注销 15 万吨，预计 2026 年交割量大幅减少，盘面 价格将锚定更高价品牌，利好高品质纸浆。 近期纸浆期货价格回落，主因实际需求未明显改善，针叶浆港口库存增 加，贸易商套期保值操作加剧现货市场流动性紧张，短期内纸浆市场预 计维持偏弱格局，需关注现货市场成交情况。 文化纸（双胶纸）市场受纸浆期货回调、招标价格低于预期及部分品牌 市价松动影响下跌，但头部企业发布涨价函，盘面或超跌修复，2026 年文化用纸市场预计处于周期低位，静待反弹。 2026 年纸浆行业供应端压力或减小，新增产能约 200 万吨，但终端消 费疲软，需关注投机需求和真实消费传导，港口库存压力较大，上半年 投机需求或不强劲，对国内纸浆期货偏利空。 纸张消费增量主要驱动力为白卡纸和生活用纸，文化用纸增量不明显， 市场大格局或维持区间震荡，新增产能减弱，港口库存较高，文化用纸 对纸浆消费提振有限。 Q&A 纸浆及造纸行业展望 20251124 摘要 近期纸浆期货市场的主要变化和原因是什么？ 最近文化纸（双胶纸）市场从 4,300 元/吨跌至 4,10 ...

11月20日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，纸浆期货主力合约开盘报5400.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，纸浆主力最高触及5402.00元，下方探低5288.00元，跌幅达2.25%附近。 11月19日，上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单205216吨，环比上个交易日减少8067吨；纸浆厂库期货仓单6000 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 后市来看，纸浆期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 新世纪期货指出，上一工作日现货市场价格偏稳运行。针叶浆最新外盘价下跌20美元至680美元/吨，阔 叶浆最新外盘价上涨20美元至540美元/吨，成本对浆价支撑减弱。造纸行业盈利水平处于偏低水平，纸 厂库存压力较大，对高价浆接受度不高，需求表现不佳，目前纸厂刚需采买原料，利空于浆价。预计浆 价偏弱震荡为主。 11月19日，纸浆前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓19.84万手，空单持仓20.84万手，多空比 0.95。净持仓为-1.00万手，相较上日增加1111手。 新湖期货表示，考虑到短期上涨主要系对于1月合约仓单不足的担忧所致，但当下盘面价格已经接近俄 针以外的高质量品牌现货价格，其将一定程度上限制上行高度，叠 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，截至10月29日，10月70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4735元/吨，环比下跌66元/ 吨，跌幅1.37%，9月底华南地区投产的40万吨新产能逐渐放量，局部供给压力增加，对纸价利空为 主，国庆假期后，华南地区30万吨新产能试机，加重业者偏空心态。箱瓦纸方面，截至10月29日，中国 AA级瓦楞纸120g市场月均价2962元/吨，环比涨幅6.51%，同比涨幅12.88%，主要原料废纸市场表现偏 紧，原料结构性问题难以缓解，纸厂采购成本增加明显，纸厂多轮上调价格以缓解亏损压力 木浆：阔叶浆外盘继续报涨，国内价格上涨放缓 10月进口木浆现货市场均价涨跌各异，浆市交投偏刚需。第一，上海期货交易所纸浆期货市场偏弱运行 与终端需求不振共同拖累针叶浆价格震荡下行。第二，阔叶浆外盘连续报涨带来成本支撑，叠加国庆节 后有规模纸厂采购推动阔叶浆均价微幅探涨。第三，受再生纤维浆进口检测加严影响，部分需求转向本 色浆，带动其价格上行。第四，进口化机浆因流通货源有限与下游采购意愿低迷相互制约，价格承压走 低。 风险提示 海外木浆供应链扰动、下游消费需求不及预期等。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 文化纸：新投产能释放，需求疲 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 19, 2025, was 5396.00, with a change of -0.22189% from the previous day [3]. - The closing prices and related data from November 13 - 19, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations and changes in basis and dollar - converted prices [3]. Group 2: Import Profitability - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp is - 136.75, for Canadian Lion pulp is - 425.04, and for Chilean Silver Star pulp is 16.68 [4]. - The calculation is based on port dollar prices, Shandong region RMB prices, and the previous day's exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the national and Shandong region average prices of different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, etc.) remained unchanged [4]. - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper also showed no change during this period [4]. Group 4: Profit Margin Estimates - The profit margin estimates for different types of paper (double - offset, double - copper, etc.) remained stable from November 14 - 19, 2025 [4]. Group 5: Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous -本色, etc.) are presented, with some showing minor changes from November 13 - 19, 2025 [4].

消息面 截至2025年11月13日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量为211.0万吨，较上期累库10.2万吨，环比上涨 5.1%,同比上涨21.3%。 机构观点 银河期货： 纸浆期货高位震荡，现货市场针叶浆价格略有松动，阔叶浆价格上涨，进口浆市场活跃度一般。中国纸 浆港口库存增加，需求疲软，成本支撑强但高库存和弱需求限制上行空间，短期估值偏谨慎。 国投安信期货： 目前纸浆的估值仍在低位，中长期有一定的改善预期，近期资金推涨的意愿较强，经过连续上涨之后， 01合约基本追平现货价格，短期上涨空间或受限，但盘面做多热情仍在，且市场传言因新年度仓单偏 少，有一定的逼仓风险。操作上多单谨慎持有。 11月14日讯，本期瓦楞纸产量49.92万吨，较上期下降0.9万吨，降幅1.77%；产能利用率66.7%，较上期 下降1.2个百分点。 11月14日，上期所纸浆期货仓库仓单214368吨，环比上个交易日减少1493吨；纸浆期货厂库仓单6000 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core View - In the short term, pulp prices are trending stronger due to low warrant quantities and rising overseas quotes in November. It is recommended to monitor the cost digestion performance of downstream paper mills and adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,482 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,870 - 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing quotation was 5,520 - 5,530 yuan/ton [7]. - Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quote for softwood pulp would be raised by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow [7]. - As of November 6, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.31% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port decreasing [7]. - The performance of downstream base papers remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while other base papers mainly replenished inventory as needed. Tendering for offset paper publications was ongoing, but social demand was limited [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 12, during the 8th CIIE, the sub - forum "Promoting Green Trade Liberalization and Accelerating Global Green Transformation" of the 8th Hongqiao International Economic Forum was held. Zhai Jingli, Vice President of Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), was invited to attend and discuss with domestic and foreign political, business, academic, and research guests [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price spreads, needle - broadleaf price spreads, inter - delivery spreads, warrant totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and spreads of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][18][25][26][27]

Group 1: Report Information - Researcher: Yang Lulin from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Data Sources: Zhuochuang Information, Steel Union Data [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the double-offset paper market have remained stable recently. Weekly production has increased, and inventory has risen slightly. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the implementation of these letters needs to be closely monitored [5]. - In the short term, the positions and trading volume in the futures market are low, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 4: Double-Offset Paper Futures Data - On November 4, 2025, the price of OP2601 was 4,266, a day-on-day decrease of 0.42% compared to November 3. The position of the main contract was 943, a day-on-day increase of 0.11% [3]. Group 5: Spot Price Data Double-Offset Paper - Shandong High-White Swan: 4,675 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Ben-White Tianyang: 4,475 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Ben-White Peony: 4,450 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Guangdong High-White Blue Leaf: 4,600 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Beijing High-White Ruixue: 4,725 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. Coated Paper - Guangdong Chenming Snow Rabbit: 4,650 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Guangdong Huaxia Sun: 4,900 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Guangdong Jindong Dongfan: 5,300 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Chenming Snow Rabbit: 4,650 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Sun Tianyang: 4,800 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. Group 6: Papermaking Raw Material Data - Shandong Broadleaf Goldfish: 5,500 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Coniferous Silver Star: 4,250 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Coniferous Russian Needle: 5,100 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Guangdong Broadleaf Goldfish: 4,300 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Coniferous Moon: 3,700 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Chemical Mechanical Kunhe: 5,350 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. Group 7: Double-Offset Paper Supply and Demand Data Production - On September 19, 2025: 20.7 million tons [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 20.3 million tons [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 21 million tons [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 20.87 million tons [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 20.5 million tons [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 19.48 million tons [4]. Capacity Utilization - On September 19, 2025: 53% [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 56.9% [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 55.7% [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 52.93% [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 54% [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 56.69% [4]. Factory Inventory - On September 19, 2025: 131.5 million tons [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 122.7 million tons [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 122.7 million tons [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 130 million tons [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 121 million tons [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 119.6 million tons [4]. Social Inventory - On September 19, 2025: 58 million tons [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 53.2 million tons [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 53.4 million tons [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 54 million tons [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 53.1 million tons [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 53.6 million tons [4]. Production Gross Margin - Chemical Mechanical Pulp-Based: On September 19, 2025, it was 437; on October 24, 2025, it was 512; on October 17, 2025, it was 572; on September 26, 2025, it was 528; on September 12, 2025, it was 541.25; on September 5, 2025, it was 614 [4]. - Broadleaf Pulp-Based: On September 19, 2025, it was 270; on October 24, 2025, it was 329; on October 17, 2025, it was 203; on September 26, 2025, it was 240; on September 12, 2025, it was 264; on September 5, 2025, it was 360 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, there will still be a differentiation phenomenon in the spot market. Hardwood pulp will be relatively firm under cost support, while softwood pulp will be weaker than hardwood pulp due to high inventory and demand substitution. Downstream base paper issued price increase letters in November, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The overall demand has slightly improved, and it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: In October, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and stable hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood decreased, while the price of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish remained stable, and the price of Bird increased slightly. The price of chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, while the price of natural color pulp and bagasse pulp increased [11][14]. - **Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis**: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has basically shown a convergent triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to fluctuate and rebound within the convergent triangle in November [17]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: In October, the main - continuous contract of pulp futures increased, while the overall increase of wood pulp spot price was less than that of pulp futures, so the basis discount decreased significantly [20]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: In October, the main - continuous contract of log futures first rose and then fell, with a monthly decline of 3.61%. The weighted trading volume increased, and the weighted open interest decreased [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: It is expected that the total pulp production in November will be 231.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The total supply will be 736.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The demand is expected to increase slightly [24][25]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In October 2025, the domestic pulp production increased. It is expected that the pulp production will decrease in November [26]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volumes of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp increased, while the import volume of natural color pulp decreased. The import average price of pulp continued to decline [32][35][38][40]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In October 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp continued to rise [46][48]. - **Wood Pulp Usage**: The wood pulp usage of household paper and white cardboard increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The wood pulp usage of offset paper increased slightly, while that of coated paper decreased slightly [50][53]. - **Downstream Paper Production**: In October 2025, the production of household paper, offset paper, and white cardboard increased, while the production of coated paper decreased slightly. It is expected that the production of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard will increase in November [56][58][60][64]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In October, the price of household paper remained stable, the price of cultural paper continued to decline, the prices of white board paper and white cardboard increased, and the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper also increased [67][69][71]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: In October, the overall port inventory increased, with Qingdao Port reducing inventory, Changshu Port increasing inventory, and Gaolan Port reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decrease in November [73][77]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: In October, the pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the pulp market had a pattern of strong supply and weak demand for softwood pulp, with high inventory and slow de - stocking suppressing the rebound. The double - offset paper was in the off - season, and it was difficult to implement price increases. The pulp market's "structural increment" was still concentrated in hardwood pulp [4][5]. - For the pulp market in November, the upper limit was suppressed by high inventory and old warehouse receipts, while the lower limit was supported by the foreign market quotation and the price increase of white cardboard. For double - offset paper, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction still relied on paper mills' active production cuts [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Paper Pulp Market Review - In October, the domestic spot pulp price showed a pattern of "differentiated oscillations, weak softwood and stable hardwood". Softwood pulp led the decline due to high port inventory, weak demand, and financial market pressure. Hardwood pulp rose slightly supported by foreign market price increases and tight immediate supply. Unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed sideways movements, and domestic chemimechanical pulp rose rapidly in the second half of the month due to wood chip shortages, while non - wood pulp fluctuated slightly with wood pulp [10]. - The pulp futures 01 contract in October showed a "first - down - then - up" oscillating trend. Influenced by factors such as factory shutdowns, paper mill price increases, and exchange rate changes, the closing price at the end of the month increased by about 1.5% compared to the beginning of the month, and the daily average amplitude of the main contract was about 1.2% [15][17]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply - **Import**: In September, China's paper pulp imports reached 295.2 million tons, a historical peak for the same period. The forecast for October arrivals remained at around 3 million tons. It was expected that the annual imports would exceed 36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [21]. - **Domestic Production**: In October, domestic paper pulp production was 2.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4%. It was expected that the annual production would reach 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4% [21][22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the sample inventory of mainstream ports was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. If the November imports decreased as expected, the inventory was expected to continue to decline slightly, but it was difficult to fall below the critical level of 1.9 million tons [23][24]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand - **Cultural Paper**: In October, the apparent consumption of cultural paper decreased, and the demand for pulp continued to decline. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would decrease by about 5% [27]. - **Packaging Paper**: In October, the consumption of hardwood pulp in packaging paper increased rapidly. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by 8 - 10% [27][28][29]. - **Household Paper**: In October, household paper maintained high - level production and sales. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by about 6% [30][31]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - **Double - Offset Paper**: In October, the average market price of double - offset paper was 4,643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, there was still a risk of price decline [32]. - **Coated Paper**: In October, the average price of coated paper was 4,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. In November, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels [32][34]. 5. Cultural Paper Price Analysis - **Production**: In October, the production of double - offset paper was 890,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.3%. The production of coated paper was 353,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 58.8%. In November, the planned production of both was expected to increase slightly [36][37]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The inventory of coated paper was 371,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. If the price increase letters were not implemented in November, the inventory would continue to rise [38]. - **Profit**: In October, the losses of double - offset paper and coated paper expanded. In November, although paper mills issued price increase letters, it was difficult to reverse the loss situation [39]. - **Cost**: In October, the cost of wood pulp and energy increased, squeezing the profit space of paper mills. In November, there was still upward pressure on costs [40]. - **Import and Export**: In September, the imports and exports of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. In October, the export volume was expected to remain low [40][41]. - **Downstream Demand**: In October, the demand for cultural paper was weak. In November, the spring textbook tender volume was expected to decline, and the demand was difficult to provide upward momentum [42]. 6. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Paper Pulp Fundamental Analysis**: In November, attention should be paid to the port de - stocking speed. If the inventory fell below 1.9 million tons, the basis would converge, and the futures price would rise; otherwise, the near - low - far - high reverse spread would be maintained [46]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the SP2511 contract on rallies and long the SP2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, mainly use the 12 - 1 reverse spread idea. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [47][49]. - **Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis**: In November, the supply and demand of double - offset paper remained loose, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction relied on paper mills' active production cuts [50]. - **Double - Offset Paper Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the OP2601 contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51][54].