8月26日盘中，纸浆期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至5092.00元。截止发稿，纸浆主力合约 报5096.00元，跌幅0.66%。 新世纪期货：预计纸浆价格盘整为主 上一工作日现货市场价格横盘整理。针叶浆最新外盘价维持在720美元/吨，阔叶浆最新外盘价维持在 500美元/吨，成本对浆价支撑减弱。造纸行业盈利水平处于偏低水平，纸厂库存压力较大，对高价浆接 受度不高，需求处于淡季，刚需采买原料，利空于浆价。纸浆基本面呈现供需双弱格局，目前价格处于 关键点位，预计纸浆价格盘整为主。 新湖期货：浆价或低位盘整 新世纪期货 预计纸浆价格盘整为主 新湖期货 浆价或低位盘整 国信期货：纸浆可考虑逢低做多思路对待 国外浆厂生产相对正常，我国进口量平稳，港口库存依旧维持近年来相对高位，近期去库节奏有所加 快，需要关注港口库存拐点。新一轮外盘报价提涨，业者存有一定惜售挺价情绪，进口针叶浆现货市场 贸易商存试探性提涨现象，但下游纸厂利润水平承压，接受度有限，浆价小幅调整。8月下旬开始面临 淡旺季转换，采购情绪可能会发生变化，操作建议等待回调结束，可考虑逢低做多思路对待。 纸浆期货主力小幅下跌0.66%，对于后市行情如何，相 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - offset paper market remained stable overall, with limited changes in market transactions due to increased wait - and - see sentiment among industry players as the double - offset paper futures approached. Although production increased slightly, demand did not improve, and inventory rose. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices due to cost and profit considerations [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Double - offset paper prices**: The prices of 70g double - offset paper in various regions remained unchanged on a daily and weekly basis. For example, the price of 70g double - offset paper of Chenming Yunbao in Hebei was 4900 yuan/ton, with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3]. - **Copperplate paper prices**: The prices of 157g double - copper paper were stable daily, but most had a week - on - week decline. For example, the price of 157g double - copper paper of Taiyang Tianyang in Beijing was 5100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.97% [3]. - **Pulp prices**: The prices of some types of pulp declined. The price of coniferous pulp of Yinxing in Shanghai was 5850 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decline of 0.85%. The price of Russian - brand coniferous pulp in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai region was 5150 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.90% and a weekly decline of 2.83% [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Market situation**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable. Dealer shipments did not improve significantly, and new orders from downstream printing factories were average. The wait - and - see sentiment increased as the futures approached [5]. - **Price in Shandong**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - whiteness double - offset paper in the Shandong market was 4850 - 4900 yuan/ton, and the price of some natural - whiteness double - offset paper was in the range of 4500 - 4700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day [5]. - **Wood chip market**: The purchase price of wood chips was mainly stable, with individual price increases. The purchase price of poplar chips in some northern regions was in the range of 1120 - 1400 yuan/absolute dry ton. Some pulp mills in Shandong planned to resume production, but the increase in market supply was not significant [5]. - **Inventory and production**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.60% compared to last Thursday. The weekly operating rate was 48.52%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The production increased by 0.1 million tons to 20.8 million tons, a growth of 0.5%. The production enterprise inventory was 117.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [5][8]. - **Logic analysis**: Some paper machines were transferred or cross - scheduled, and there were planned maintenance on some production lines. Seasonal printing orders were coming to an end, and social orders were not boosted. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices to ensure profits. Pulp prices remained low, with high port inventories and sufficient supply [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides four figures, including double - offset paper production, in - factory inventory, social inventory, and production profit, with data from 2021 - 2025 [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of global supply shocks and changes in supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets on domestic pulp prices in China, highlighting the long-term benefits for integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy capabilities [1]. Group 1: Domestic Pulp Price Dynamics - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic prices. The demand for commodity pulp accounts for less than 40% of total wood pulp demand, with softwood pulp making up 35% and hardwood pulp 55%, which has seen rapid growth in recent years [2]. - China has become the largest buyer in the global market, increasing its market share from 12% to 44% over the past 20 years, giving it significant bargaining power. The fluctuation in domestic wood pulp demand and the rising self-sufficiency in pulp production also impact global commodity pulp demand [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Price Influences - Since 2017, an average of 2 million tons of pulp capacity has been permanently shut down each year, with supply reductions expected to exceed 2 million tons annually post-2020 due to market factors, strikes, equipment failures, and natural disasters. The rising costs of wood pulp in Europe and America have widened the price gap between softwood and hardwood pulp [3]. - The structural changes in pulp usage are expected to lower long-term average costs, with hardwood pulp demand increasing by 10 percentage points to 74%, and the use of non-wood pulp materials like bamboo pulp rising to 12.1% in domestic life paper production [3]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Trends - The cost curve for pulp production is primarily determined by wood costs, with eucalyptus becoming more prevalent and driving down hardwood costs. However, domestic real estate demand is suppressing wood prices, which may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price increases [4]. - Logistics costs account for 10-20% of total costs, and leading pulp manufacturers can optimize costs through strategic location choices. Energy costs represent 15-20%, with top manufacturers able to sell surplus electricity [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward driver in the market mainly comes from the reduction of overseas supply of hardwood pulp, but this factor has basically been priced in. Port inventories are high and de - stocking is not smooth, with weak spot market transactions. Downstream demand is mainly for essential purchases, and paper mills' production profits are low, with a possibility of a lackluster peak season. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continues to decline, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction price changes of hardwood pulp in the future. The strategy is to operate within a range, focusing on the support at the previous low, and lightly testing long positions near the previous low, with a stop - loss if it breaks through [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 58.0% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories looking to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract closed at 5178 yuan/ton (-98). In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5200 yuan/ton (-100), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-50). Chilean Arauco notified August prices, with a 50% reduction in supply for softwood pulp Yinxing at 720 US dollars/ton, hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 US dollars/ton, and natural pulp Jinxing at 590 US dollars/ton. The spot market trading sentiment was poor, and downstream demand from paper mills remained weak [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 20, 2025, SP2509 was at 5096 yuan/ton (-100), SP2511 at 5136 yuan/ton (-42), and sp2601 at 5380 yuan/ton (-40) [8]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Prices of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Shandong Russian Needle decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong Jinyu decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4150 yuan/ton [8]. - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: The prices of some finished papers such as white cardboard and offset paper decreased. White cardboard decreased by 2.29% to 4260 yuan/ton, and offset paper decreased by 2.92% to 5533.33 yuan/ton [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the paper industry [4]. Core Insights - In the short term, the report anticipates an increase in pulp costs and prices due to overseas supply shocks and changes in the supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets. In the long term, the cost of domestic pulp is expected to decrease due to changes in the pulp structure, benefiting leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, and Nine Dragons Paper, are expected to benefit from the full industry chain resource layout and operational advantages [7]. Domestic Pulp Prices and Global Supply-Demand - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic pulp prices. In 2024, domestic consumption of broadleaf pulp, softwood pulp, chemical pulp, and unbleached pulp is projected to be 2,353, 826, 656, and 95 thousand tons, respectively [9][11]. Supply Shocks and Price Impact - Supply shocks have significantly impacted short-term pulp prices, with an average of approximately 2 million tons of capacity permanently shut down annually since 2017. The report notes that supply disruptions are influenced by market factors, strikes, natural disasters, and equipment failures [76][79]. Long-term Cost Structure Changes - Changes in the pulp structure are expected to lower the long-term cost base in China. The report highlights that the price gap between softwood and broadleaf pulp has widened, with broadleaf pulp's demand share increasing by 10 percentage points to 74% [4][103]. Cost Curve Changes and Pricing - The cost curve is primarily determined by wood costs, with logistics and energy costs also playing significant roles. The report indicates that logistics costs account for 10-20% and energy costs for 15-20% of total costs, with leading pulp manufacturers optimizing costs through strategic location layouts [5][29].

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 13, 2025, was 5302.00 [3] - The conversion to US dollars was 645.26, with a daily increase of 0.72188% [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 558, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 598 [3] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 51.55, while that of Lion was -392.78, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -51.65 [4] - The exchange rate on the previous day was 7.18 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Trends - From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper also remained unchanged during this period [4] - The profit margins of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper showed varying degrees of decline [4] Group 4: Price Spreads - On August 13, 2025, the price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was 1670.00, the spread between softwood and natural pulp was 460, the spread between softwood and chemimechanical pulp was 2035, and the spread between softwood pulp and waste paper was 4284 [4]

行业 纸浆日报 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635738 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（P ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Nanhua Pulp Industry Risk Management Daily, dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 58.0% [2] - For inventory management with high - level softwood pulp inventory, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management when paper - making enterprises have low inventory, it is recommended to buy pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Spot Prices - The main contract closed at 5264 (+38) today [3] - In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5250 yuan/ton (-0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-0) [4] - Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of hardwood pulp for long - term contract customers only due to rising costs [4] - Market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream paper mills maintain rigid procurement [4] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The market currently lacks obvious driving factors, but the fundamentals of pulp have marginally improved with the approaching downstream consumption peak season, overseas mill production cuts, and inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [5] Group 5: Price Quotes - Futures contracts: SP2509 closed at 5216 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 14 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.1% increase; SP2511 closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day and 18 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 2% increase; sp2601 closed at 5488 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day and 84 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.55% increase [7][10] - CFR quotes: Softwood pulp was 870 US dollars/ton on August 11, 2025, unchanged; hardwood pulp was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged [10] - Domestic spot prices: Various types of softwood and hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, and natural pulp have different price quotes, with some showing slight increases or remaining stable; domestic finished paper prices also vary, with white卡纸 down 2.29% week - on - week and some other papers showing small changes [9]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年8月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 资料来源： 卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四下降0.90%，本周降幅环比收窄0.41个百分 点。本周社会面订单整体变化有限，经销商备货偏谨慎，纸厂出货节奏一般。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在49.18%，环比下降0.95个百分点，本周趋势由稳转 降。周内多数纸厂正常排产，江苏 ...