Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the paper industry [4]. Core Insights - In the short term, the report anticipates an increase in pulp costs and prices due to overseas supply shocks and changes in the supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets. In the long term, the cost of domestic pulp is expected to decrease due to changes in the pulp structure, benefiting leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, and Nine Dragons Paper, are expected to benefit from the full industry chain resource layout and operational advantages [7]. Domestic Pulp Prices and Global Supply-Demand - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic pulp prices. In 2024, domestic consumption of broadleaf pulp, softwood pulp, chemical pulp, and unbleached pulp is projected to be 2,353, 826, 656, and 95 thousand tons, respectively [9][11]. Supply Shocks and Price Impact - Supply shocks have significantly impacted short-term pulp prices, with an average of approximately 2 million tons of capacity permanently shut down annually since 2017. The report notes that supply disruptions are influenced by market factors, strikes, natural disasters, and equipment failures [76][79]. Long-term Cost Structure Changes - Changes in the pulp structure are expected to lower the long-term cost base in China. The report highlights that the price gap between softwood and broadleaf pulp has widened, with broadleaf pulp's demand share increasing by 10 percentage points to 74% [4][103]. Cost Curve Changes and Pricing - The cost curve is primarily determined by wood costs, with logistics and energy costs also playing significant roles. The report indicates that logistics costs account for 10-20% and energy costs for 15-20% of total costs, with leading pulp manufacturers optimizing costs through strategic location layouts [5][29].

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 13, 2025, was 5302.00 [3] - The conversion to US dollars was 645.26, with a daily increase of 0.72188% [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 558, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 598 [3] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 51.55, while that of Lion was -392.78, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -51.65 [4] - The exchange rate on the previous day was 7.18 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Trends - From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper also remained unchanged during this period [4] - The profit margins of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper showed varying degrees of decline [4] Group 4: Price Spreads - On August 13, 2025, the price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was 1670.00, the spread between softwood and natural pulp was 460, the spread between softwood and chemimechanical pulp was 2035, and the spread between softwood pulp and waste paper was 4284 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp market lacks clear guidance, and pulp prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the ongoing deadlock in the supply - demand fundamentals, high port inventories, abundant spot market supplies, no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates, the price of the pulp 2511 contract is predicted to fluctuate between 5110 - 5320 this week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices declined. Among them, broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai decreased by 0.97%, 1.22%, and 1.22% respectively. Chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, natural pulp declined, and sugarcane pulp increased. The chemical mechanical pulp Kun He in Shandong was quoted at 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the natural pulp Jin Xing was quoted at 4900 yuan/ton, down 2.0%; the sugarcane pulp in South China was quoted at 4000 yuan/ton, up 2.56% [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated horizontally within a 100 - point range last week, closing at 5192 yuan/ton on the weekly line, with no change from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 122.0 million lots, a decrease of 49.9 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 29.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 million lots [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The contango of the futures - spot basis widened slightly. The basis contango between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 688 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton wider than the previous week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, up 1.1% from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 12.2 million lots, a decrease of 0.879 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 3.15 million lots, an increase of 0.43 million lots [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week's pulp production was 47.9 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons (0.21%) compared to the previous week. It is expected that the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp will be about 20.7 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.5 tons [21]. - **Weekly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.3%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 86.7%, a decrease of 1.2% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a 2.51% increase compared to the previous month [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp**: In July 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 89.6 tons, a 4.8% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, a decrease of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 91.7 tons, a 2.92% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, an increase of 2.4% [31]. - **Monthly Production Margin of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production margin of broad - leaf pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a 3.87% increase compared to the previous month. The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.0306 million tons, a 0.48% increase compared to the previous month and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 18.5777 million tons, a 4.2% increase compared to the same period last year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 27.86 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons (0.14%) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, a decrease of 0.1% [41]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.28%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, a decrease of 1.3%. Offset paper production was 21 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (6.06%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.0%, an increase of 1.6% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, white cardboard production was 30.7 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (3.02%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.74%, a decrease of 1.94%. Corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a decrease of 0.91 tons (1.93%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.9%, a decrease of 1.22%. Boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons (1.51%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.68%, an increase of 1.32% [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Tissue paper prices remained stable, while cultural paper prices declined. Whiteboard paper and white cardboard prices were basically stable. Corrugated paper prices increased slightly, and boxboard paper prices remained stable [51][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, an increase of 2.33% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, an increase of 1.29% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, an increase of 1.25% compared to the previous month [58][60]. - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the predicted domestic demand was 3.23 million tons, the predicted consumption was 3.215 million tons, and the actual pulp consumption was 3.321 million tons, an increase of 3.94% compared to the previous month and 3.3% compared to the same period last year [64]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (2.71%) compared to the previous week. Among them, Qingdao Port's inventory is 1.385 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.42%); Changshu Port's inventory is 485,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (5.64%); Tianjin Port's inventory is 60,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (3.23%) [67][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 244,200 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.69%) compared to the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 225,000 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.75%) [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level. However, the overall demand improvement in the pulp market is still poor. The port inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the de - stocking rhythm is slow. It is in the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient. The market is in a dynamic game with cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Prices**: As of July 10, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,806 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week, with the decline narrowing by 0.88 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,066 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5,115 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week, with the decline widening by 0.16 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp was 3,767 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, with the decline remaining the same as last week [12]. - **Pulp Import Volume in May**: According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the pulp import volume in May was 3.016 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import volume of hardwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [16]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - **European Port Inventory in May**: According to Europulp data, the total European port inventory in May 2025 increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [23]. - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of July 10, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained the same as last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased by 0.85 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 1.01 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 4.44 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points. The port has been accumulating inventory in the past two weeks, and the pulp port inventory is at a high level in recent years, with a slow de - stocking rhythm. Currently, it is the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the profitability improvement of paper enterprises is poor. The downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the spot market trading is not active. There is also certain cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The price of pulp has declined, resulting in insufficient cost support and weak paper prices. The expected trend of offset printing paper next week is generally stable with a slight downward bias [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Price**: The average tax - inclusive price of 70g offset paper enterprises is 5,028.6 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive price of 157g coated paper enterprises is 5,675.0 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [5][32]. - **Supply**: Offset paper production is 195,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 3.0% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 54.6%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. Coated paper production is 77,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons or 1.3% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous period [5][13][19]. - **Demand**: The release of publishing tender orders is limited, and sporadic low prices suppress market expectations. The release of autumn publishing orders for offset paper is slow, and social orders are still sluggish. The overall terminal consumption fails to meet expectations, and the downstream printing factory's operating level is not high [5][6]. - **Cost**: The average tax - inclusive spot price of broad - leaf pulp is 4,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of coniferous pulp is 6,079 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of natural pulp is 5,043 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [5][37]. - **Strategy**: The expected trend of offset printing paper next week is generally stable with a slight downward bias [7]. Core Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The profitability of the offset paper industry is still low, with factory conversion occurring, and the market supply tends to be stable. The profitability of the coated paper industry is relatively stable, and other factories mostly schedule production as planned, with little change in capacity utilization, which remains at a low level [6][19]. - **Demand**: The release of autumn publishing orders for offset paper is slow, social orders are still sluggish, overall terminal consumption fails to meet expectations, the downstream printing factory's operating level is not high, and users' consumption of base paper inventory is slow, with no obvious intention to stock up in large quantities. Under the impact of electronic media, social demand for coated paper is still weak, and users mostly make rigid purchases [6][23]. - **Cost**: Rumors of low foreign prices for broad - leaf pulp are spreading again, intensifying the bearish sentiment among industry players and putting pressure on the pulp market trend. The decline in pulp prices has led to a stable and slightly stronger gross profit margin for coated paper [6][19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Offset Paper Supply**: The production volume has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. The profitability of offset paper has improved due to the decline in pulp raw material prices [13]. - **Offset Paper Inventory**: The overall on - site inventory has continued to decline slightly but remains at a high level in recent years. The inventory of offset paper production enterprises has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period [14][16]. - **Coated Paper Supply**: The production volume has increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate has increased slightly. The gross profit margin of coated paper is stable and slightly stronger due to the decline in pulp prices [19]. - **Coated Paper Inventory**: The on - site inventory of coated paper has decreased slightly. The inventory of coated paper production enterprises has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period [20][23]. - **Paper Prices**: The average prices of offset paper and coated paper enterprises have remained stable [32]. - **Imported Pulp Prices**: The prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and natural pulp have declined, while the price of chemimechanical pulp has remained unchanged [37].

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In June, the prices of pulp and paper have stabilized after a decline, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices showing weakness during the off-season [3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices and costs have stabilized with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. As of June 27, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 5153 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton (0.90%) month-on-month and down 573 CNY/ton (10.01%) year-on-year [5][8] - Supply and demand are expected to improve marginally as the publishing order cycle approaches, although the overall demand remains weak [10] - Profitability is stable as the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper was 1.81%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from May [21] White Cardboard - Prices initially increased before declining, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4088 CNY/ton, a 0.29% increase from May but a 6.17% decrease year-on-year [24] - Supply and demand are expected to widen, with a forecast of increased production and limited demand during the traditional off-season [28] - Profitability has improved due to a decrease in costs, with the gross margin rising by 1.46 percentage points from May [37] Boxboard Paper - The market price for boxboard paper has decreased, with an average price of 3503 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton (0.31%) from May and down 3.68% year-on-year [40] - The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to increased supply pressure and weak demand [44] - The profitability of the industry is under pressure due to rising costs and declining prices [40] Pulp - External prices for pulp are declining, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to persist. The new external prices for needle pulp are set at 720 USD/ton and for bleached pulp at 620 USD/ton [6][8] - The demand side remains weak, with paper mills adopting price-cutting strategies to optimize raw material procurement costs [6][8] Waste Paper - Prices have fluctuated, with overall supply and demand remaining weak. The market is experiencing a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand [4][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]

Group 1 - The main contract for pulp futures showed a fluctuating trend, closing at 5064.00 yuan with a decrease of 0.47% [1] - New Century Futures expects pulp prices to remain weak and fluctuate [2] - Guotai Junan Futures suggests a range-bound trading strategy due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [3] Group 2 - Southwest Futures reports a significant decline in the pulp futures market, with both needle and broadleaf pulp prices dropping [4] - The overall production of downstream products is decreasing, contributing to a sluggish demand for raw paper [4] - High port inventory levels and increased supply pressure from Brazil are negatively impacting market confidence [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The port inventory of pulp shows a cumulative trend, the supply pressure continues to intensify, the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, the pulp consumption in the base paper market fails to effectively recover, paper mills mainly digest raw material inventories, and the operating rate remains at a low level. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5110 - 5290 this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the market price of pulp spot was narrowly sorted. The prices of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp in Shandong area generally declined, with coniferous pulp silver star, kelip, and beimu down 0.81%, 0.80%, and 0.78% respectively; broad - leaf pulp goldfish, alpine down 0.49% and 1.20% respectively. The prices of natural color pulp and bamboo pulp also decreased slightly, with natural color pulp Venus down 2.91% and southwest bamboo pulp down 3.19% [8][11]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 first rose and then fell last week, closing at 5198 yuan/ton, down 0.50% for the week, with weighted trading volume and open interest increasing [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than the futures price, the basis discount continued to narrow slightly, with a discount of 858 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton narrower than last week [18]. - **Log Futures Price Review**: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a wide - range shock last week, closing at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.13% week - on - week, with trading volume increasing and open interest decreasing [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%. It is expected that the domestic broad - leaf pulp production will be about 21.2 tons and the chemimechanical pulp production will be about 19.8 tons this week [4][22]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Last week, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.5%, a week - on - week increase of 3.6%; the domestic chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In May 2025, the domestic pulp production was 199.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%; the wood pulp production was 165.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [29]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization Rate**: In May 2025, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.9%, a month - on - month increase of 8.68%; the chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 84.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In May 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 660.9 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.77%; the production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 418 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 192.55 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 301.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% and a year - on - year increase of 6.95%; the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 1555 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6% [39]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the offset paper production was 20.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [43]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the whiteboard paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, the white cardboard remained flat, the corrugated paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the boxboard paper decreased [46][49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the tissue paper price remained stable, the cultural paper decreased slightly, the whiteboard paper decreased slightly, the white cardboard remained stable, the boxboard paper remained stable, and the corrugated paper decreased slightly [50][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization Rate**: In May 2025, the tissue paper and white cardboard capacity utilization rates decreased month - on - month, the offset paper slightly increased, the copperplate paper decreased, and the domestic pulp actual consumption slightly decreased [60][63][66]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the domestic port inventory showed a cumulative trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 218.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Among them, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port continued to accumulate inventory, and Tianjin Port reduced inventory [67][69]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 24.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong area increased slightly [71].

截至2025年6月13日当周，纸浆期货主力合约收于5242元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持7980 手。 本周（6月9日-6月13日）市场上看，纸浆期货周内开盘报5282元/吨，最高触及5424元/吨，最低下探至 5230元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.79%。 消息面回顾： 国信期货：据海关总署，2025年5月我国进口纸浆301.6万吨，1-5月累计进口量同比增加2%。进口木浆 业者调低局部地区部分牌号现货价格，下游纸厂采买原料积极性不足，观望心态浓郁，浆市动销节奏不 快，延续动态博弈。操作建议暂时观望。 据悉，芬林集团旗下芬林芬宝(MetsaFibre)宣布凯米(Kemi)工厂正在为年度停机维护做准备,停机将于 2025年5月28日开始,为期五周，主要工作是将损坏的蒸发装置更换为新的蒸发装置。据悉，凯米生物制 品厂年针叶浆102万吨/年、阔叶浆30万吨/年和本色浆18万吨/年。 截止2025年6月12日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：218.5万吨，较上期累库2.8万吨，环比上涨 1.3%，库存量在本周期呈现小幅累库的走势。 机构观点汇总： 正信期货：总体来看：纸浆现货市场交投情绪略有改善，部分贸易商反馈出 ...