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纸浆周度报告:国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260329
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-29 09:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the imported pulp spot market is expected to continue the stalemate, with pulp prices in a dilemma. On one hand, high foreign offers and traders' holding costs limit the downside space; on the other hand, weak downstream demand and pressured margins limit the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in foreign offers, port destocking rhythm, and downstream base paper price transmission [97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of March 26, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 623,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,000 tons or 24.4%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,576,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons or 1.1%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 70,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons or 4.5%. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2,395,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,000 tons or 4.3% [5][6]. - Suzano will increase the offer of eucalyptus pulp in the Asian market by $20/ton and in the European and American markets by $50/ton in April 2026, effective April 1st [6]. - Arauco adjusted its March pulp offers, with softwood pulp at $680/ton, hardwood pulp Star at $620/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at $620/ton [7]. - The environmental impact assessment of the 5.57 - million - ton expansion project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The project has a construction period of 6 years and an investment of 17.6 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On March 27, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was - 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 85.71%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.32%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 150 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [14]. - On March 27, 2026, the 05 - 07 month spread was not provided, and the 07 - 09 month spread was - 42 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27.59%; the 09 - 11 month spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.00% [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish and between Russian Needle and Goldfish remained stable. On March 27, 2026, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 600 yuan/ton, and the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [23][25]. - The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp improved week - on - week. On March 27, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 427 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.66%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 324 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.24% [28]. - The price of the main pulp contract rose from a low level. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased with the market, but downstream acceptance of high prices was low. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp rose slightly, but downstream replenishment was cautious [30][35]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood were 5,200 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,450 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.93% [33]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,600 yuan/ton, 4,600 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 1.10%, and 1.11% [37]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of natural pulp (Venus) and chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) were 4,800 yuan/ton and 3,800 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of some paper enterprises in East China increased this week. On March 27, 2026, the purchase prices of eucalyptus chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper and poplar chips by Wuzhou Special Paper were 1,260 yuan/ton and 1,340 yuan/ton respectively [42][44]. - The supply of domestic pulp decreased this period. On March 26, 2026, the daily average price of Chinese chemimechanical pulp was 3,816.67 yuan/ton, and the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo's hardwood pulp was 4,850 yuan/ton [46][48]. - In February 2026, the pulp port inventory in Europe increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In January 2026, the global pulp outbound volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [50][52]. - In January 2026, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp decreased, the shipment volume increased, and the inventory days dropped to a year - on - year low [54][56]. - In January 2026, the export volume of softwood pulp from five countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, Sweden, and the United States) to China continued to increase month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased seasonally [58][60]. - In January 2026, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased month - on - month, while that of Chile decreased [64][63]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of Chinese softwood pulp decreased by 6.96% year - on - year, and that of hardwood pulp decreased by 5.04% year - on - year [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market declined this period. Supply increased, but demand was weak, and the market was dull [70]. - The domestic coated paper price declined slightly this period. Supply increased, but demand was weak, and the market was dull [74]. - The white cardboard price declined this period. Supply increased, but the cost pressure from imported wood pulp made large manufacturers maintain a price - increasing attitude [78]. - The tissue paper price declined this period. Demand was weak, and the cost support from pulp was not strong [82]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [88]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On March 27, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 170,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32%; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 15,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.76% [89]. - As of March 27, 2026, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,576,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the inventory at Changshu Port was 623,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.35%; the inventory at Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao Ports was 196,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.45%. The total inventory of the five ports was 2,395,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.27% [94].
建信期货纸浆日报-20260326
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 03:04
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: March 26, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,222 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,224 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase. The SP2609 contract rose 0.23%, and the SP2701 contract rose 0.14% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 4,640 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,220 - 5,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Suzano announced price increases for eucalyptus hardwood pulp in April 2026. According to PPPC, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries in January decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, softwood pulp by 5.5%, and hardwood pulp increased by 3.5%. In February 2026, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,600 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase and a 5.8% year - on - year decrease; consumption was 820,700 tons, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 3.4% year - on - year increase. The cumulative pulp imports from January to February 2026 were 6.0439 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year decrease. As of March 19, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.1888 million tons, a 5.89% month - on - month decrease. The supply - demand contradiction in the pulp market still exists, and it will run in a short - term low - level range [8]. Group 3: Industry News - **Arauco's Price Adjustment**: In March, Arauco adjusted the price of softwood pulp Yinxing to 680 US dollars/ton, maintained the price of hardwood pulp Mingxing at 620 US dollars/ton with 75% supply, and maintained the price of natural pulp Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton [9]. - **Jiulong Paper's Project**: Jiulong Paper (Hubei) Co., Ltd. plans a total investment of 20.5 billion yuan, with a total area of 3,994 mu. After full operation, the total output value will reach 23 billion yuan, with taxes and profits of 1.8 billion yuan and 3,500 new jobs. The project started in October 2020, the first - phase project was put into operation at the end of 2022, the second and third - phase projects were fully put into operation in September 2025, and the fourth - phase project is under planning. In 2025, its industrial output value was 5.606 billion yuan, a 34.35% year - on - year increase [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference, inter - delivery spread, European major port wood pulp inventory, copperplate paper and offset paper price and spread, white cardboard and whiteboard paper price and spread, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][24][30]
纸浆:震荡运行20260326
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 01:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate. The demand in the market remains weak and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The high - level pressure of port inventory persists. The pulp price will mainly be in a narrow - range consolidation. Attention should be paid to the changes in the purchasing willingness of downstream paper mills and the dynamics of foreign offers [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 5,196 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume was 259,553 lots, a decrease of 119,071 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 186,345 lots, a decrease of 10,462 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 186,562 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons; the net position of the top 20 members was - 32,280 lots, an increase of 764 lots [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract was - 24, a decrease of 64; the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) was - 624, a decrease of 14; the month - spread of SP05 - SP07 was - 46, an increase of 4 [3] - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Beimu and Kalip were 5,450 yuan/ton, Moon was 5,150 yuan/ton, and Silver Star was 5,200 yuan/ton. The domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp such as Golden and Star were 4,600 yuan/ton. The domestic price of chemimechanical pulp (Yinghe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of natural pulp (Venus) was 4,800 yuan/ton [3] 2. Industry News - The pulp futures market rose slightly yesterday, driving the spot price of coniferous pulp to rise slightly. However, the actual market trading was rather light. Downstream paper mills had low purchasing enthusiasm due to average profits, and some enterprises adopted a price - pressing strategy, with limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials. The trend of broad - leaf pulp was relatively stable [4][5]
纸浆早报-20260323
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Key Points from the Report SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on March 20, 2026, was 5164.00 [3] - The closing prices and related data from March 16 - 20, 2026, are presented, showing price fluctuations and percentage changes [3] Import Profit and Price Information - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands (Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, Chilean Silver Star) are provided, with values of 165.97, -605.31, and -419.82 respectively [4] - The exchange rate on the previous day was 6.88, and prices are calculated with a 13% VAT [4] Pulp Price Averages - National and Shandong regional average prices for different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural color, chemical mechanical) from March 16 - 20, 2026, are presented, with no changes during this period [4] Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - Index values for cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper from March 17 - 20, 2026, are presented, with no changes in most cases [4] - Profit margin estimates for different types of paper from March 17 - 20, 2026, are provided, with a -0.5210 change in the living paper profit margin [4] Pulp Price Spreads - Price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural color, coniferous - chemical mechanical, coniferous - waste paper) from March 16 - 20, 2026, are presented [4]
纸浆早报-20260318
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 01:11
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on March 17, 2026, was 5088.00 [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 644.73, with a daily decline of 2.75229% [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 52, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 87 [3] Group 2: Import Profit Information - The import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 157.15, while that of Canadian Lion was -463.56 [4] - The import profit of Chilean Yinxing was -457.85 [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Information - From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [5] - The average prices in Shandong area also remained unchanged during the same period [5] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - From March 12 to March 17, 2026, the cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper indices remained unchanged [5] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper changed on March 17 compared to previous days, with increases of 0.8920, 0.8250, 0.6969, and 0.9702 respectively [5] Group 5: Pulp Price Difference Information - On March 17, 2026, the price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp was 615.00, the difference between softwood and natural pulp was -260, the difference between softwood and chemimechanical pulp was 1330, and the difference between softwood pulp and waste paper was 3564 [5]
浆纸产业观察系列(一):木浆涨价与减产并行,盈利改善需求仍强
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-09 12:03
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the global market for wood pulp is experiencing price increases alongside production cuts, indicating a strong demand for profit improvement [2][4] - Recent price adjustments include a $20 per ton increase for hardwood pulp and a stable price for softwood pulp at $710 per ton [2][4] - Major suppliers like Suzano and Metsä have announced production cuts, with Metsä planning to suspend 690,000 tons of softwood pulp capacity by March 2026 [2][4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In March, the price of hardwood pulp rose by $20 per ton to $620 per ton, while softwood pulp prices remained stable at $710 per ton [2][9] - The price of hardwood pulp has increased from $500 per ton in July 2025 to $620 per ton in March 2026, marking a 24% increase [9] Production Adjustments - Metsä announced a temporary shutdown of its Joutseno softwood pulp mill, which accounts for approximately 2.5% of global softwood pulp capacity, effective March 31, 2026 [9] - Suzano and Bracell have also announced production cuts for hardwood pulp, with Suzano reducing output by about 3.5% [9] Demand and Profitability - Suzano's recent financial report indicates an increase in hardwood pulp sales and a slight improvement in profit margins, suggesting ongoing demand for profit enhancement [9] - The report anticipates that the lack of new production capacity and ongoing production cuts will lead to favorable supply-demand dynamics, potentially driving prices higher in 2026-2027 [9]
国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260308
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-08 11:55
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week's pulp view is oscillating with an upward bias. The supply side has high port inventories and ongoing supply pressure, but the inventory accumulation is less than the same period last year, with relatively controllable pressure. The demand side sees the downstream start - up rate gradually increasing, and there are price - increase expectations for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp market. Currently, the pulp market has cost - support and unmet demand. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a limited direct impact but an indirect impact on the domestic pulp market, and its long - term impact depends on the duration of the closure. It is recommended to buy on dips for unilateral trading and observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of March 5, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 656,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period and a 4.2% month - on - month decrease. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,562,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons and a 2.8% month - on - month increase. Gaolan Port's inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons and an 11.3% month - on - month increase. The total inventory of the main pulp ports in China was 2,408,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons and a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - On March 3, 2026, the Joutseno pulp mill of the Finnish group Stora Enso will be shut down on March 31, 2026, with an annual production capacity of 690,000 tons of softwood pulp [6]. - On March 3, 2026, Zhanjiang Chenming's chemical pulp production line resumed production. Chile's Arauco's March softwood pulp offer was $710/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star was $620/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was $620/ton, unchanged [7]. Market Data - **Market Trends** - On March 6, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was - 22 yuan/ton, with a 650% month - on - month decrease compared to February 27, 2026, and a 103.43% year - on - year decrease. The basis of Russian Needle was - 222 yuan/ton, with a 52.05% month - on - month decrease and a 105.56% year - on - year decrease. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with a 33.33% month - on - month increase and a 73.33% year - on - year decrease [14]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread** - On March 6, 2026, the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 22 yuan/ton, with a 31.25% month - on - month increase compared to February 27, 2026. The 07 - 09 monthly spread was - 24 yuan/ton, with a 29.41% month - on - month increase [19]. Fundamental Data - **Price** - **Needle - Broadleaf Price Difference and Import Profit** - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish widened, while the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish remained stable. On March 6, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 700 yuan/ton, with a 7.69% month - on - month increase and a 61.11% year - on - year decrease. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a 52.38% year - on - year decrease [24][26]. - The import profit of softwood pulp improved month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp decreased. On March 6, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 317.88 yuan/ton, with a 17.25% month - on - month increase and a 74.20% year - on - year decrease. The import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 315.89 yuan/ton, with an 81.90% month - on - month decrease and a 50.64% year - on - year decrease [31][33]. - **Softwood Pulp** - The price of the main pulp contract rose and then narrowed. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased slightly compared to before the holiday, but the actual trading atmosphere was relatively light [35]. - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, and Russian Needle were 5300 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [37]. - **Hardwood Pulp** - The FOB quotation of hardwood pulp was relatively firm, but the domestic market demand recovery was limited. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp declined weakly [39]. - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4600 yuan/ton, 4600 yuan/ton, 4580 yuan/ton, and 4500 yuan/ton respectively [41]. - **Natural Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp** - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4850 yuan/ton and 3800 yuan/ton respectively [44]. - **Supply** - **Wood Chip Price** - Before the holiday, the wood - chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased [46]. - On March 6, 2026, the wood - chip purchase prices of eucalyptus clean chips - Liansheng Pulp and Paper, poplar clean chips - Wuzhou Special Paper, etc. were 1160 yuan/ton, 1300 yuan/ton, etc. respectively [48]. - **Domestic Pulp** - The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased, and the supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp recovered [50]. - On March 5, 2026, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3883.33 yuan/ton, and the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo Paper's hardwood pulp (Senbo) was 4850 yuan/ton [52]. - **European Port Inventory and Global Pulp Outbound Volume** - In January 2026, the European pulp port inventory decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In November 2025, the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [54]. - **W20 Shipment Volume and Inventory** - In November 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was low, and the inventory was high. The hardwood pulp inventory was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [58]. - **Overseas Softwood Pulp Export Volume** - In December 2025, the softwood pulp export volume of four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month. In January 2026, the softwood pulp export volume of Chile to China remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [62]. - **Overseas Hardwood Pulp Export Volume** - In January 2026, the hardwood pulp export volume of four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the hardwood pulp export volume of Brazil and Uruguay to China increased month - on - month [68]. - **Pulp Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The softwood pulp imports increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the hardwood pulp imports decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the imports of natural and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [70]. - **Demand** - **Offset Paper** - The domestic offset paper market was range - bound, and the trading was still dull. Some factories planned to raise prices, but the price increase was not effectively transmitted to the terminal. The social inventory of offset paper decreased month - on - month [74]. - **Coated Paper** - The domestic coated paper price increased slightly. The supply was abundant, but the demand was not significantly boosted. Some factories planned to raise prices, but the price increase was blocked at the terminal [78]. - **White Cardboard** - The white cardboard market was dull. Although large factories promoted price increases, the increase was reduced by 100 yuan/ton compared to the original plan. The main reasons were high paper - mill inventory, high trader inventory, and expected changes in the supply pattern [82]. - **Household Paper** - The household paper market price remained stable, and the trading atmosphere was light. Some paper enterprises in the north signaled price increases, but the industry was mostly waiting and watching. The raw - material pulp market fluctuated, and the hardwood pulp price was stable, providing little support for the household paper price [86]. - **Terminal Demand** - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the dairy production, increased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [92]. - **Inventory** - **Futures Inventory** - On March 6, 2026, the total number of pulp warehouse receipts (warehouse) was 138,300 tons, with a 0.22% month - on - month increase and a 59.74% year - on - year decrease. The total number of pulp warehouse receipts (factory warehouse) was 16,000 tons, with a 6.67% month - on - month increase and a 25.02% year - on - year decrease [93]. - **Spot Inventory** - The main pulp port inventory continued to accumulate. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to accumulate, while Changshu Port's inventory decreased. On March 6, 2026, the inventories of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and the combined Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao Ports were 1,562,000 tons, 656,000 tons, and 190,000 tons respectively, with the total inventory of the five ports being 2,408,000 tons [99].
纸浆数据日报-20260303
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 07:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias as overseas softwood pulp mills have a serious inventory build - up, there is significant pressure on foreign market quotes, and there is no obvious positive news for domestic demand [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On March 2, 2026, the futures price of SP2601 was 5468 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 0.04% and a weekly -环比 of 0.40%; SP2609 was 5316 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.08% and a weekly -环比 of 0.23%; SP2605 was 5252 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.11% and a weekly -环比 of - 0.15% [5] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of - 1.87%; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 0.98% and a weekly -环比 of - 1.94%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 0.00% [5] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton, up 1.69% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, unchanged; Chilean Star was 4911 yuan/ton, up 1.68% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data Import Volume - In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, a month -环比 increase of 7.31% compared to November; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 23.40% [5] Shipment Volume to China - In January 2026, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 170 thousand tons, a - 19.80% decrease compared to the previous period [5] Domestic Production - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp on February 26, 2026, was 25.2 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 23.8 tons [5] Pulp Port Inventory - As of February 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 240.1 tons, a 9.4% increase compared to the previous period, showing a trend of inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival [5] Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory - As of February 26, 2026, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 15.2 tons [5] Demand (Finished Paper Production) - The production of offset paper on February 26, 2026, was 17.50 tons; coated paper was 7.40 tons; tissue paper was 23.98 tons; white cardboard was 36.10 tons [5] Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Chilean Arauco's February softwood pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; broad - leaf pulp Star offer was 600 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; unbleached pulp Venus offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - Demand side: The demand for pulp has been stable recently, the price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased slightly this week [5]
纸浆:震荡偏强20260302
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 03:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pulp is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 2. Core Viewpoint - The pulp market is in a state of shock and is expected to be relatively strong. The current supply is characterized by a game between cost support and inventory pressure, while demand is in a slow post - holiday recovery with tepid procurement sentiment [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The day - session closing price of pulp's main contract decreased by 66 yuan/ton to 5,246 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 5,240 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 5,973 hands to 172,356 hands, while the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 10,364 hands to 253,941 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 474 tons to 153,011 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 3,483 hands to - 32,812 hands [3]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Yinxing - futures main contract" decreased by 34, and the basis of "Jinyu - futures main contract (non - standard)" increased by 66. The month - spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 8 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of various pulp varieties are as follows: coniferous pulp (Beimu and Kailipu at 5,500 yuan/ton, Yueguang at 5,200 yuan/ton, Yinxing at 5,250 yuan/ton, Ezhen at 5,100 yuan/ton), broad - leaf pulp (Jinyu and Mingxing at 4,600 yuan/ton, etc.), chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe at 3,800 yuan/ton), and natural pulp (Jinxing at 4,850 yuan/ton). The international price of Yinxing is 710 US dollars/ton, Mingxing is 600 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing is 620 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry News - **Supply**: The cost of traders has increased due to the rise in the FOB price of broad - leaf pulp, reducing their willingness to sell at low prices. After the holiday, port inventories have increased by 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday, but the absolute increase is lower than last year, alleviating concerns about high - inventory pressure [4]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a slow post - holiday recovery. The operating rate of downstream paper enterprises has increased, but paper mills are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, with low enthusiasm for purchasing. The expected post - holiday concentrated restocking has not occurred. The pulp market will follow market sentiment and ignore fundamental impacts due to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the shipping market [5].
纸浆早报-20260302
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 01:36
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Date: March 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: SP Main Contract Closing Price - Closing price on February 27, 2026: 5246.00 [3] - Closing prices from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 5260.00, 5340.00, 5348.00, 5312.00, 5246.00 respectively [3] - Dollar - converted prices from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 664.54, 677.38, 680.16, 678.24, 668.12 respectively [3] - Daily price changes from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 0.42001%, 1.52091%, 0.14981%, - 0.67315%, - 1.24247% respectively [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 50, 25, 27, 28, 79 respectively [3] - Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 50, 25, 17, 43, 79 respectively [3] Group 3: Import Profit and Price Information - Import profit calculation based on 13% VAT [4] - Import profit for Canadian Golden Lion, Lion and Chilean Yinxing: 183.60, - 403.81, - 171.26 respectively [4] - Port dollar prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Lion and Chilean Yinxing: 780, 730, 700 respectively [4] - Shandong region RMB prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Lion and Chilean Yinxing: 6300, 5310, 5325 respectively [4] Group 4: National and Regional Average Prices - From February 13 to February 27, 2026, national and Shandong regional average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - From February 13 to February 27, 2026, prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index) and living paper (living index) remained unchanged [4] Group 5: Profit Margin Estimates - Double - offset profit margin estimates from February 24 to February 27, 2026: - 2.9070%, - 2.9412%, - 2.8214%, - 2.8214% respectively [4] - Double - copper profit margin estimates from February 24 to February 27, 2026: 7.3250%, 7.2917%, 7.4083%, 7.4083% respectively [4] - White - card profit margin estimates from February 24 to February 27, 2026: - 8.2333%, - 8.2564%, - 8.1755%, - 8.1755% respectively [4] - Living paper profit margin estimates from February 24 to February 27, 2026: 6.7434%, 6.6356%, 6.6895%, 6.9949% respectively, with a change of 0.3054 on February 27 compared to February 24 [4] Group 6: Price Spreads - Coniferous - broadleaf spreads from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 755, 700, 710, 675, 675 respectively [4] - Coniferous - natural spreads from February 13 to February 27, 2026: - 90, - 35, - 25, - 60, - 75 respectively [4] - Coniferous - chemimechanical spreads from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 1435, 1490, 1500, 1465, 1450 respectively [4] - Coniferous - wastepaper spreads from February 13 to February 27, 2026: 3734, 3789, 3799, 3764, 3749 respectively [4]