纸浆早报 | | 文化用纸 | | 包装纸 | | 生活用纸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 双胶指数 | 双铜指数 | 白卡指数 | | 生活指数 | | 2025/09/23 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/24 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/25 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/26 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | 双胶利润率估算 双铜利润率估算 | | 白卡利润率估算 | | 生活利润率估算 | | 2025/09/23 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.6876% | | 2025/09/24 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.7258% | | 2025/09/25 | 1.9958% | 15.6563% | -12. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and the pulp price has rebounded slightly. The pulp futures price of contract 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 5180 this week [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp remained stable, while the prices of broad - leaf pulp increased slightly. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained unchanged compared to the previous week [11][14] - **Pulp Futures**: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight up - and - down oscillation and rebounded last week, closing at 5018 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (or + 0.56%) [15] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 632 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing by 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [19] - **Log Futures**: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a slight oscillatory rebound last week, closing at 805.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (or + 0.88%) [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 51.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons (or + 7.69%). The production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased, and it is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 23.2 tons and that of chemimechanical pulp will be about 22.0 tons this week [22] - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rates of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp both increased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will not change much next week [25] - **Monthly Production**: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly, with wood pulp production rising and non - wood pulp production remaining flat [27] - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the capacity utilization rates of chemimechanical pulp and broad - leaf pulp both decreased [32] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp increased month - on - month, and the loss of chemimechanical pulp decreased [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume increased year - on - year [37] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of household paper decreased slightly, while those of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased. It is expected that the production of household paper will be about 27.9 tons, offset paper about 20.6 tons, coated paper about 8.5 tons, and white cardboard about 36.0 tons this week [39][43][46][47] - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: The gross profit of household paper decreased, while that of white cardboard increased slightly. The loss of offset paper decreased slightly, and the gross profit of coated paper increased [49][53] - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In August 2025, the actual pulp consumption increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price**: The prices of household paper and cultural paper remained stable, the price of whiteboard paper increased slightly, and the price of white cardboard remained basically stable [57][60] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port has all increased [61][63] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous week, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.27% [65]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Low-level Fluctuation, Pay Attention to the Stabilization of Demand - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2511, rebounded from the bottom and then declined, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Price - As of September 18, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44%, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.02%, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to August - In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.545 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.36 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [16] Port Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points [20] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [24] Downstream Pulp Operating Rates - Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption. Non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of September 18, the operating load rates of double-coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.29, 0.66, 0.16, and 2.51 percentage points respectively week-on-week [30] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume showing a stable performance. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of pulp export quotes for September: softwood pulp Silver Star at 700 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Venus at 590 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Star up 20 US dollars/ton to 540 US dollars/ton. With the new round of export quotes rising, some industry players are reluctant to sell and hold prices. There is a tentative price increase in the spot market of imported softwood pulp, but the profit margin of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the conversion period between the traditional off-season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the stabilization of downstream demand for a real "reversal". The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long position at low prices [35]

General Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - Closing price on September 16, 2025: 5068.00 [3] - Price changes from September 10 - 16, 2025: 0.52314%, 0.40032%, -0.51834%, 1.32265%, 0.23734% respectively [3] - Discounted US dollar price on September 16, 2025: 621.53 [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis on September 16, 2025: 582 [3] - Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing basis on September 16, 2025: 612 [3] Import Pulp Price and Profit - Calculated with 13% VAT, import profits of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion and Chilean Yinxing are -145.57, -533.29 and -212.83 respectively [4] Pulp and Paper Price and Margin - From September 10 - 16, 2025, there is no change in the national average price of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp, as well as the average price in Shandong region [4] - From September 11 - 16, 2025, there is no change in the prices of cultural paper (offset index, coated index), packaging paper (white card index) and household paper (household index) [4] - From September 11 - 16, 2025, the changes in estimated margins of offset paper, coated paper, white card and household paper are -0.9701, -1.6070, 0.0368 and -0.4202 respectively [4] Pulp Price Spread - On September 16, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper are 1460.00, 250, 1825 and 4074 respectively [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 0.91% overall, with the pre - settlement price at 5276 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5324 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The offer price of Shandong Yinxing is 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's August wood pulp export quotes were stable compared to June. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased month - on - month by 3.2% and year - on - year by 4.1%. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month by 7.9% and year - on - year by 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week. The downstream cultural paper market is running weakly, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of pulp futures rose 0.91%. The 05 contract rose 0.76%, and the 09 contract rose 0.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable. Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Arauco's August quotes were stable compared to June. In July, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major producing countries increased. China's pulp imports in August decreased. The inventory as of September 11 increased. The downstream cultural paper market has resumed production, but new orders are limited, and the pulp market will continue low - level fluctuations [8]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which will improve the standard system and promote the healthy development of the industry [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Cost - end guidance is limited, supply remains loose, and pulp is in low - level volatile adjustment awaiting peak - season demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5340 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5324 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 5000 - 6650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The price of Shandong Silver Star is 5,750 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's August pulp offers: Softwood pulp Silver Star at 720 USD/ton, unbleached pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, hardwood pulp Star at 520 USD/ton, all stable compared to June [8] - World's 20 major pulp - producing countries' July chemical pulp shipments: Up 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1% [8] - July European port pulp inventory: Down 1.9% month - on - month and up 19.2% year - on - year [8] - July China's pulp imports: 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year [8] - As of August 28, 2025, weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports: Up 1.23% month - on - month [8] - January - July profit of the papermaking and paper products industry: Down 21.9% year - on - year, with a slightly wider decline [8] Operation Suggestions - No operation suggestions provided in the report Group 5: Industry News - On September 2, Shanying Paper announced a shutdown and maintenance plan for the National Day. It involves 12 paper lines at multiple bases in Anhui, Zhejiang, Central China, Fujian, Guangdong, and Jilin, with shutdown durations ranging from 4 to 8 days from September 29 to October 6, affecting about 97,000 tons of boxboard and corrugated paper production capacity [9] - July European port total inventory: Down 1.91% month - on - month and up 19.19% year - on - year. Only the ports in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Switzerland saw a 1.72% month - on - month increase, while ports in the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the paper industry [4]. Core Insights - In the short term, the report anticipates an increase in pulp costs and prices due to overseas supply shocks and changes in the supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets. In the long term, the cost of domestic pulp is expected to decrease due to changes in the pulp structure, benefiting leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, and Nine Dragons Paper, are expected to benefit from the full industry chain resource layout and operational advantages [7]. Domestic Pulp Prices and Global Supply-Demand - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic pulp prices. In 2024, domestic consumption of broadleaf pulp, softwood pulp, chemical pulp, and unbleached pulp is projected to be 2,353, 826, 656, and 95 thousand tons, respectively [9][11]. Supply Shocks and Price Impact - Supply shocks have significantly impacted short-term pulp prices, with an average of approximately 2 million tons of capacity permanently shut down annually since 2017. The report notes that supply disruptions are influenced by market factors, strikes, natural disasters, and equipment failures [76][79]. Long-term Cost Structure Changes - Changes in the pulp structure are expected to lower the long-term cost base in China. The report highlights that the price gap between softwood and broadleaf pulp has widened, with broadleaf pulp's demand share increasing by 10 percentage points to 74% [4][103]. Cost Curve Changes and Pricing - The cost curve is primarily determined by wood costs, with logistics and energy costs also playing significant roles. The report indicates that logistics costs account for 10-20% and energy costs for 15-20% of total costs, with leading pulp manufacturers optimizing costs through strategic location layouts [5][29].

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 13, 2025, was 5302.00 [3] - The conversion to US dollars was 645.26, with a daily increase of 0.72188% [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 558, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 598 [3] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 51.55, while that of Lion was -392.78, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -51.65 [4] - The exchange rate on the previous day was 7.18 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Trends - From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper also remained unchanged during this period [4] - The profit margins of cultural paper, packaging paper, and household paper showed varying degrees of decline [4] Group 4: Price Spreads - On August 13, 2025, the price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was 1670.00, the spread between softwood and natural pulp was 460, the spread between softwood and chemimechanical pulp was 2035, and the spread between softwood pulp and waste paper was 4284 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp market lacks clear guidance, and pulp prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the ongoing deadlock in the supply - demand fundamentals, high port inventories, abundant spot market supplies, no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates, the price of the pulp 2511 contract is predicted to fluctuate between 5110 - 5320 this week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices declined. Among them, broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai decreased by 0.97%, 1.22%, and 1.22% respectively. Chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, natural pulp declined, and sugarcane pulp increased. The chemical mechanical pulp Kun He in Shandong was quoted at 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the natural pulp Jin Xing was quoted at 4900 yuan/ton, down 2.0%; the sugarcane pulp in South China was quoted at 4000 yuan/ton, up 2.56% [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated horizontally within a 100 - point range last week, closing at 5192 yuan/ton on the weekly line, with no change from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 122.0 million lots, a decrease of 49.9 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 29.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 million lots [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The contango of the futures - spot basis widened slightly. The basis contango between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 688 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton wider than the previous week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, up 1.1% from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 12.2 million lots, a decrease of 0.879 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 3.15 million lots, an increase of 0.43 million lots [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week's pulp production was 47.9 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons (0.21%) compared to the previous week. It is expected that the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp will be about 20.7 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.5 tons [21]. - **Weekly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.3%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 86.7%, a decrease of 1.2% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a 2.51% increase compared to the previous month [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp**: In July 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 89.6 tons, a 4.8% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, a decrease of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 91.7 tons, a 2.92% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, an increase of 2.4% [31]. - **Monthly Production Margin of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production margin of broad - leaf pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a 3.87% increase compared to the previous month. The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.0306 million tons, a 0.48% increase compared to the previous month and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 18.5777 million tons, a 4.2% increase compared to the same period last year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 27.86 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons (0.14%) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, a decrease of 0.1% [41]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.28%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, a decrease of 1.3%. Offset paper production was 21 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (6.06%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.0%, an increase of 1.6% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, white cardboard production was 30.7 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (3.02%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.74%, a decrease of 1.94%. Corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a decrease of 0.91 tons (1.93%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.9%, a decrease of 1.22%. Boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons (1.51%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.68%, an increase of 1.32% [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Tissue paper prices remained stable, while cultural paper prices declined. Whiteboard paper and white cardboard prices were basically stable. Corrugated paper prices increased slightly, and boxboard paper prices remained stable [51][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, an increase of 2.33% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, an increase of 1.29% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, an increase of 1.25% compared to the previous month [58][60]. - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the predicted domestic demand was 3.23 million tons, the predicted consumption was 3.215 million tons, and the actual pulp consumption was 3.321 million tons, an increase of 3.94% compared to the previous month and 3.3% compared to the same period last year [64]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (2.71%) compared to the previous week. Among them, Qingdao Port's inventory is 1.385 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.42%); Changshu Port's inventory is 485,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (5.64%); Tianjin Port's inventory is 60,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (3.23%) [67][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 244,200 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.69%) compared to the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 225,000 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.75%) [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level. However, the overall demand improvement in the pulp market is still poor. The port inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the de - stocking rhythm is slow. It is in the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient. The market is in a dynamic game with cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Prices**: As of July 10, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,806 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week, with the decline narrowing by 0.88 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,066 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5,115 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week, with the decline widening by 0.16 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp was 3,767 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, with the decline remaining the same as last week [12]. - **Pulp Import Volume in May**: According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the pulp import volume in May was 3.016 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import volume of hardwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [16]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - **European Port Inventory in May**: According to Europulp data, the total European port inventory in May 2025 increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [23]. - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of July 10, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained the same as last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased by 0.85 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 1.01 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 4.44 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points. The port has been accumulating inventory in the past two weeks, and the pulp port inventory is at a high level in recent years, with a slow de - stocking rhythm. Currently, it is the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the profitability improvement of paper enterprises is poor. The downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the spot market trading is not active. There is also certain cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [36].