Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral. Arbitrage: Long the near contract and short the far contract for SHFE aluminum [4] Core View - The conflict between Israel and Iran may escalate, and the EU's approval of sanctions against Russia could drive up aluminum prices. However, the approaching traditional off - season, the possible end of the rush to export, and the slowdown of social inventory destocking may limit the upward momentum of aluminum prices. For alumina, although the spot follows the strong trend of the futures, the supply surplus expectation remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 20, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,100 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,050 yuan/ton, closed at 20,075 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton or - 0.45% from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract opened at 3,149 yuan/ton, closed at 3,134 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.42% from the previous trading day [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. As of May 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 390,925 tons, down 2,525 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas factors may push up aluminum prices, but the approaching off - season and weakening fundamentals may limit the upward movement. Aluminum rod production is still strong, and the production of aluminum sheets, strips and foils is slightly weaker but still at a high level. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - **Alumina**: The spot price follows the strong trend of the futures. The futures price rises due to disturbances at the Guinean ore end. Although the supply of bauxite is expected to be sufficient even if the Axis mine stops production, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions. The supply surplus expectation of alumina remains unchanged [3]