Economic Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 increased significantly to 3%, up 3.5 percentage points from Q1[12] - Personal disposable income in June rose by 4.3% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.75%[14] - The core PCE price index in June grew by 2.58% year-on-year, with the core PCE at 2.79%[17] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, but the three-month moving average trend continues to decline[19] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from June[20] - The U6 unemployment rate also increased to 7.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[20] Market Reactions - Major stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the Hang Seng Index down 3.5%[5] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% over the week, despite a subsequent drop after initial gains[9] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX copper falling by 20.2%[5] Policy Insights - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the importance of inflation risks over employment risks in his recent statements, indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts[46] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while adjusting inflation forecasts upward[51] Trade Agreements - The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, including a 15% tariff on EU imports, while negotiations with China continue[47]