1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and investors are advised to pay attention to macro - sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to - late January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month. The shutdown is expected to affect the total production of construction steel by 741,000 tons [1] - Among 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 mill stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January. The daily production affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new recent low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict driving up energy prices and raising the inflation center, the market's interest rate cut expectation has been significantly postponed. The first interest rate cut window this year is likely to be postponed to the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and the policy easing pace has become more cautious [1] - Overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has declined, and the global supply contraction expectation is strengthened. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises remained stable at 72.9%, but the Middle East war has restricted the further improvement of the air - conditioning foil production plan [2] - Aluminum prices and macro uncertainties are suppressing the release of demand. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons on Monday, and the premium is expected to continue to shrink [2] - Although the domestic social inventory is accumulating, the Middle East geopolitical situation has increased the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain. Overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic upward momentum is weak, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]