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炉料价格重心上移,一线楼市新政再加码
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 01:00
来源:市场资讯 (来源:英大期货) 摘要: ②热卷库存总量为204.34万吨,较上周环比增加7.80万吨(+3.97%),包含15个城市,共计47个仓库; 美联储主席鲍威尔讲话暗示尽管当前通胀上行风险依然存在,但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息,市场押 注美联储9月开启降息,资本市场受到提振。钢银电商统计建材城市库存连续第十周增加,本周建筑钢 材城市库存总量为464.19万吨,环比增加21.60万吨,增幅4.88%。一线城市房地产政策继续加码,今日 上海6部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》,利率定价不再区分首套住房和二套 住房,提高公积金贷款额度,完善个人住房房产税等政策。今日焦炭开启第八轮提涨,铁矿石走强,钢 材炉料价格重心上移,短期螺纹或震荡偏强运行。 一、行情回顾 二、行业新闻 1、上海发布楼市"沪六条":涉及调减限购、公积金、住房信贷、房产税等6项调整 2025年8月26日起,上海优化调整房地产政策措施。为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房 需求,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,8月25日,市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、 市税务局、人民银行上海市分行、市公积金管理中心等 ...
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250826
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:07
晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格: 以伊冲突 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 从业资格号:F03127144 投资咨询号:Z0020161 电话:021-20857653 2025 年 8 月 26 日 逻辑:云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬,复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右,停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂,1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产;其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假, 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价高位运行。宏观上上周美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话强化 了 9 月降息的预期。他表示,美国就业市场的风险正在上升,但通胀仍是 一个威胁。国内 ...
钢银电商:本周全国钢市累库约34万吨 建材库存续增超4%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 00:09
其中,建筑钢材库存总量为464.19万吨,较上周环比增加21.60万吨(+4.88%),包含30个城市,共计 79个仓库。热卷库存总量为204.34万吨,较上周环比增加7.80万吨(+3.97%),包含15个城市,共计47 个仓库。中厚板库存总量66.15万吨较上周环比增加3.10万吨(+4.92%),包含9个城市,共计14个仓 库。冷轧涂镀库存总量为119.49万吨,较上周环比增加1.51万吨(+1.28%),包含5个城市,共计14个 仓库。 新华财经北京8月25日电钢银电商最新数据显示,截至8月25日的一周,全国38个城市,共计135个仓库 的城市钢材总库存量较上周环比增加34.01万吨,至854.17万吨,增幅4.15%。 (文章来源:新华财经) ...
2025年沙特利雅得国际建材展SaudiBuild
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 02:16
1、水暖卫浴陶瓷:厨卫产品及设备、卫浴洁具、水龙头、淋浴房、瓷砖、岩板、马赛克、陶瓷机械等 2、石材及机械设备:天然石、大理石、花岗岩、人造石、石英石、石材切割机、抛光、制造机械等 9、工程机械:挖掘机、装卸机、推土机、工程车辆及配件、工程钻探机械及掘进机、铲土运输机械、钢筋和预应力机械、沥青设备、轨道设备、混凝土机 械、装修机械、电动工具、桩工机械、路面机械、压实机械、工程起重机械和吊车、筑路和清运机械、镗床和挖掘设备、工程建设机械及配件、岩凿机械、 隧道挖掘机器、发动机和发电机、测量设备及仪器、检测维修设备及其配件、传输设备、机械手臂、轮胎、气液压及气动设备、道路、桥梁及隧道的设计和 建设、道路维护及修复机器及材料、设计、建设及修复工程技术和服务等 4、空调制冷:家用空调、中央空调、电风扇、空气处理设备、制冷蓄冷设备、通风设备等 5、清洁及维护设备:工业清洗、家用清洁、管路清洁、环卫设备、空气净化、环保技术、维修设备等 6、建筑钢材:钢结构、不锈钢、H型钢、螺纹钢、轴承钢、槽钢、钢管、钢板、线材、钢铁炉料等 7、玻璃及材料:建筑玻璃、家具玻璃、装潢玻璃及各类配件等 8、照明建材:照明设备、灯具配件及开关、 ...
铝锭:旺季预期逐步到来,关注宏观指引,成材:重心下移偏弱运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 04:42
晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假,停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日,10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交(签约)面积总计 223.4 万平方米,环比下降 40.3%,同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行,价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下, 市场情绪同样偏悲观,导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上, 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷,对价格支撑不强。 观点:震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素:宏观政策;下游需求情况。 成 材:武秋婷 原材料:程 鹏 原材料: 冯艳成 有色金属:于梦雪 基本面来看,供应方面变化不大,电解铝运行产量稳中小增。需求方 面,"金九银十"旺季临近,但目前在淡季影响下,终端到加工 ...
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250820
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 04:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation [1][3] - The aluminum ingot prices are expected to have short - term weak fluctuations and be adjusted in the range recently, with the subsequent focus on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with individual ones after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] For Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, traders are waiting for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest rate policy clues. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry symposium to strengthen investment management [2] - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. In terms of demand, although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is hard to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - fields, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost demand [3] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Macro - level interest rate cut expectations support prices. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and actual impacts are expected to put pressure on the upside [4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250818
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 04:53
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term range oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [6] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the near future, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [5] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center of gravity [4] Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was operating at a high level. Macro data kept the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged, and traders were waiting for the result of the "Putin - Trump meeting". The US dollar jumped on Thursday and gave back most of the gains on Friday [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons per year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons per year. The weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [4] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery trend. In sub - fields, the operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [4] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250815
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 03:08
Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250814
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:32
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].
钢银电商:全国钢市库存环比增加1.63%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 00:13
Core Insights - The total steel inventory in the national market reached 7.85 million tons as of August 11, reflecting an increase of 126,100 tons (+1.63%) compared to the previous week [1][2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of construction steel amounted to 4.17 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 59,700 tons (+1.45%) [1][2] - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 1.91 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 45,000 tons (+2.42%) [1][2] - The total inventory of medium and heavy plates was 620,400 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 13,900 tons (+2.29%) [1][2] - The total inventory of cold-rolled and coated products reached 1.15 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,500 tons (+0.65%) [1][2]