Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移，偏弱运行 [1][3] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪 [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨 [2][3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [3] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷，对价格支撑不强 [3] 铝锭 -昨日铝价冲高，近期中东局势紧张，铝产能受影响，短期拉升价格 [2] -国内氧化铝市场累库且幅度扩大，供应端开工率小幅回落，但广西新投项目投产，周度产量环比增长，供应压力显现 [3] -3月铝加工综合PMI为65.6%，反弹至荣枯线上方，行业整体景气度回升，各细分板块PMI跃升，呈现节后修复、旺季驱动特征 [3] -4月铝加工行业景气度预计由“全面修复”转向“结构分化”，综合PMI中枢向荣枯线回归 [3] -三月下半月，国内电解铝市场区域分化行情显著，华东、华南库存走势与现货价差背离加剧 [3] -周末局势紧张，铝价短期获走强动力，国内库存偏高，预计价格较外盘偏弱，市场交易情绪围绕油价，中东地缘是核心变量 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in iron ore prices is mainly driven by the enhanced supply control expectations, leading to limited liquidity of some spot varieties and prominent structural issues. In the short - term, factors such as the improvement of demand after the Two Sessions, the significant rebound of hot metal production, and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iran conflict support the iron ore prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the price trend highly depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will be a key factor restricting the upward movement of prices. The positive spread is running strongly, and short - term negotiation progress needs to be continuously monitored, with cautious operation advised. The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Rate - For I2701, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 762.5, up 3.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I01 - I05 was - 56.5, unchanged from March 20. - For I2605, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 819.0, up 3.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I05 - I09 was - 39, down 2 from March 20. - For I2609, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 786.5, up 5.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I09 - I01 was 24.0, up 2 from March 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot - On March 23, 2026, the price of Jinbuba powder was 750, up 2 from March 20; PB powder was 797, up 2; Newman powder was 739, up 2; etc. The optimal delivery product was Newman powder, with a price of 792 on March 23, up 18 from March 20 [1]. 3.3 Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index for the current month: on March 23, 2026, it was 106.74, up 0.43 from March 20. The import profit of Karara powder decreased by 36 from March 20 to March 23. - Mysteel 62% index for 1 - month: on March 23, 2026, it was 108.23, up 1.08 from March 20. The import profit of Newman powder decreased by 28 from March 20 to March 23 [1]. 3.4 MS Inventory - On March 20, 2026, the total inventory was 17098, down 89 from March 13; Australian ore inventory was 8324, down 5; Brazilian ore inventory was 5074, down 31; etc. The Australian iron ore shipped globally was 2458, up 74 from March 13; the Brazilian iron ore shipped was 549, down 23; the arrival volume was 2271.6, up 56.6 [1]. 3.5 Night - session Review - The futures iron ore i2605 closed at 816 yuan/ton, and i2609 closed at 786 yuan/ton. The spread between iron ore 5 - 9 was 30 yuan. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 (+2) yuan/ton, and the price of the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, after discounting to the warehouse receipt (warehouse) was 780 yuan [2]. 3.6 Important Information - On March 23, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 69.70 tons, a 43.6% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.00 tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous day. - From March 16 - 22, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2383.1 tons, a 66.1 - ton increase from the previous period. - From March 16 - 22, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3144.3 tons, a 95.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2559.4 tons, a 95.0 - ton increase from the previous period. - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the downstream resumption progress after the festival was slightly slower than last year. The trading volume of construction steel in Shanghai decreased by 17.78% year - on - year. It is estimated that the construction steel inventory in Shanghai will enter the de - stocking channel in early April. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous estimate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under short-term pressure for adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price corrected from its high. Due to the easing of sentiment and profit - taking by long positions, the previous risk premium was retracted. The stronger US dollar and tightened liquidity expectations suppressed the valuation of commodities [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts have affected the supply in the Middle East, with a decrease in daily output expected [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory, but the pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory accumulation slope has shown signs of moderation. As of March 19, the inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the price of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The Back structure has weakened. Domestic high inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillation" for the iron ore market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent rise in iron ore prices is mainly driven by the strengthened supply control expectations, which restricts the liquidity of some spot varieties. In the short - term, the price volatility increases. The post - holiday market focuses on post - holiday resumption of work and demand realization. After the Two Sessions, the demand is expected to improve marginally, and the iron water output is expected to rise significantly. The Iran conflict will increase the shipping cost expectations, providing short - term support for ore prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the price trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of iron water output, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The positive spread runs strongly, and short - term negotiation progress needs to be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: The iron ore futures i2605 closed at 805 yuan/ton, and i2609 closed at 775.5 yuan/ton. The spread between i2605 and i2609 is 29.5 yuan [1] - **Spot**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port is 793 (-4) yuan/ton, and the price after converting to the standard product (factory warehouse) is 825 yuan. The optimal deliverable product, Newman powder, is 776 yuan after converting to the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread Data - **01 Basis**: For I2701, the basis is 758.0 on March 18, 2026, down 7.0 from March 17, 2026. The basis spread I01 - I05 is 18, and the basis rate is 2.34% [1] - **05 Basis**: For I2605, the basis is 811.0 on March 18, 2026, down 5.5 from March 17, 2026. The basis spread I05 - I09 is 32.0, and the basis rate is - 4.49% [1] - **09 Basis**: For I2609, the basis is 779.0 on March 18, 2026, down 6.5 from March 17, 2026. The basis spread I09 - I01 is 21.0, and the basis rate is - 0.37% [1] 3.3 Index and Import Profit Data - **Index**: Mysteel 65% index for the current month of Carajás fines increased by 0.68 to 107.10 on March 18, 2026; Mysteel 62% index for Newman powder one - month increased by 1.30 to 108.80; Mysteel 58% index for Jimbara powder two - month increased by 1.27 to 107.45 [1] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of Carajás fines decreased by 31 to - 22 on March 18, 2026; the import profit of Newman powder decreased by 20 to - 57; the import profit of Jimbara powder decreased by 24 to - 4 [1] 3.4 Inventory and Shipping Data - **Inventory**: The total iron ore inventory on March 13, 2026 is 17188, an increase of 70 compared to March 6, 2026. The Australian ore inventory is 8329, an increase of 245; the Brazilian ore inventory is 5105, a decrease of 215 [1] - **Shipping**: The Australian shipments to the world on March 13, 2026 is 2385, an increase of 115 compared to March 6, 2026; the Brazilian shipments is 572, a decrease of 3 [1] 3.5 Important News - In February 2026, China exported 463 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. From January to February, the cumulative export was 933 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [1] - On March 18, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in China was 51.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7%; the transaction volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders was 8.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% [1] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit was a loss of 86 yuan/ton [1] - From March 1 to 15, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 56.1 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail volume was 314 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [1] - In early March, the output of key monitored coal enterprises was 6444 million tons, with a daily average output of 644 million tons. The daily average output increased by 38 million tons compared to the late February, a growth of 6.3%, and increased by 9 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 1.4% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity and a weak operation [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished steel continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] - The finished steel is expected to move in a range [2] Aluminum - The inventory of the domestic alumina market continues to decline, but the decline rate narrows, and the overall inventory level is still high, with further prominent structural differentiation characteristics [2] - There is still an expectation of overseas electrolytic aluminum production cuts. Due to energy and logistics factors in Europe and the Middle East, some production capacities have entered the maintenance cycle, and the logic of global supply contraction remains intact [2] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operation remains stable, with limited incremental supply and overall stability [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend [2] - The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.9%. There is a co - existence of traditional peak - season demand recovery and short - term support from battery foils, but the Middle East war situation affects the air - conditioner foil production plan [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons week - on - week, showing a stockpiling trend in all three regions. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation [1][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating operation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weekly fundamental data and the downstream demand situation, and the rebound height is limited [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Steel Export - In February 2026, China exported 4.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 9.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [1] Steel Production Cost and Profit - This week, after the blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills ended, the cost decreased. The ex - factory price of common billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the steel mills were on the verge of profit and loss with reduced losses [1] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit loss was 86 yuan/ton [1] Automobile Market - From March 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.561 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 3.14 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [1] Steel Price Support Factors - Recently, the rise in raw materials has provided cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise of the black metal sector is also driven by inflation in the overall commodity market [1]

Group 1: Overall Economic Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2026 increased by 2.8% year-on-year, driven by the long Spring Festival holiday, which boosted dining and travel demand, along with new subsidy funds [12][20] - The retail sales excluding automobiles reached 79,827 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% over two years [12][20] Group 2: Consumer Demand Insights - The consumption structure continues to upgrade, with service and dining retail sales growing faster than goods retail sales, and online retail sales of physical goods outpacing overall retail growth [20] - Essential consumption categories showed widespread improvement, with year-on-year growth in staple food, beverages, and clothing, while tobacco sales turned positive [20][16] - The new "trade-in" subsidy program, along with platform subsidies and Spring Festival activities, led to positive growth in home appliances and furniture, while communication equipment maintained high growth [20][16] Group 3: Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index and DXI Index increased [7] - DRAM prices showed a mixed trend, with the DRAM Index rising by 4.13% and NAND Index also increasing, while DDR5 DRAM prices fell [7][10] Group 4: Midstream Manufacturing Sector - The prices in the new energy supply chain mostly declined, and the automotive production turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 7.52% [7][19] - The sales of major engineering machinery companies mostly turned negative in February, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing sector [7][19] Group 5: Resource Sector Tracking - The average transaction volume of construction steel increased, while coal prices showed mixed trends with some declines in specific regions [5][22] - Brent crude oil prices rose significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 17.15%, contributing to a general rise in chemical product prices [9][24] Group 6: Financial and Real Estate Sector - The monetary market saw a net absorption, with SHIBOR rates declining, while the turnover rate and daily transaction volume in the A-share market decreased [5][29] - The transaction area of new houses and the sales area of commercial housing showed a year-on-year decline, although the decline in real estate development investment narrowed [5][31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Oscillating operation" [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate upward due to rising costs, and the industry is expected to operate in an oscillating manner. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Environment - In 2026, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects such as supporting the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance. The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, mainly in the manufacturing industry. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects [2] Industry Data - On March 17, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,396 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton, and the average profit was a loss of 81 yuan/ton [2] Market Performance - The finished steel oscillated yesterday. In recent days, the daily K - line has shown small positive lines, and the price center has been continuously rising. The rise in raw materials provides cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise in the black market is also driven by inflation on commodities as a whole. Attention should be paid to downstream demand for steel [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and investors are advised to pay attention to macro - sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to - late January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month. The shutdown is expected to affect the total production of construction steel by 741,000 tons [1] - Among 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 mill stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January. The daily production affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new recent low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict driving up energy prices and raising the inflation center, the market's interest rate cut expectation has been significantly postponed. The first interest rate cut window this year is likely to be postponed to the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and the policy easing pace has become more cautious [1] - Overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has declined, and the global supply contraction expectation is strengthened. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises remained stable at 72.9%, but the Middle East war has restricted the further improvement of the air - conditioning foil production plan [2] - Aluminum prices and macro uncertainties are suppressing the release of demand. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons on Monday, and the premium is expected to continue to shrink [2] - Although the domestic social inventory is accumulating, the Middle East geopolitical situation has increased the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain. Overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic upward momentum is weak, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]