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海尔智家(600690):Q3内外销稳健增长并释放利润弹性
HTSC· 2025-11-03 03:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.56 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 5.34 billion RMB, up 12.7% year-on-year. The first three quarters of 2025 saw a total revenue of 234.05 billion RMB, a 10.0% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 17.37 billion RMB, up 14.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in domestic sales, achieving a 10.8% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, despite a general decline in the home appliance market [2]. - The overseas revenue grew by 8.25% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant contributions from North America and emerging markets [3]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 27.2%, reflecting a slight increase due to cost control measures and a focus on high-end branding in overseas markets [4]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 21.58 billion RMB, 23.81 billion RMB, and 26.22 billion RMB respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - The company achieved a 10.8% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in home air conditioning, which saw over 30% growth [2]. - The overall home appliance market in China faced a 3.2% decline in retail sales, highlighting the company's ability to outperform the market [2]. Overseas Performance - The company’s overseas revenue increased by 8.25% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with North America showing stable growth despite a cautious consumer environment [3]. - In Europe, the HVAC business saw over 30% revenue growth, and the company gained market share in key countries [3]. - Emerging markets, including South Asia and the Middle East, experienced significant growth, with revenue increases of over 25% and 60% respectively [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin improved to 27.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to effective cost management and a focus on high-end products [4]. - The report noted a decrease in sales expense ratio to 10.6%, indicating improved operational efficiency [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with net profits expected to reach 21.58 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 15.16% growth [5]. - The target price for A-shares is set at 35.56 RMB, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2026, while the target price for H-shares is 33.09 HKD [5].