证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 11 月 28 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 联系人：黄燕芝 执业证书编号：S1410123120005 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 4.09 -2.68 -5.5 绝对收益 -0.17 0.27 10.07 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在影响本报告客观性的 利益冲突，不应视本报告为投资决策的唯一因素。 敬请参阅最后一页之免责条款 家用电器行业 行业评级：增持（维持） 据产业在线最新排产数据显示，2025 年 12 月空冰洗排产总量合计为 3018 万台， 同比去年同期实际生产下降 14.1%。分产品类别来看，12 月份家用空调/冰箱/ 洗 衣 机 排 产 1411/813/794 万 台 ， 分 别 同 比 去 年 同 期 实 际 生 产 下 降 22.3%/8.2%/1.9%。2025 年 12 月家用空调内销/出 ...

报告发布方：中金企信国际咨询 项目可行性报告&商业计划书专业权威编制服务机构（符合发改委印发项目可行性研究报告编制要求）-中金企信国际咨询：集 13年项目编制服务经验为各类项目立项、投融资、商业合作、贷款、批地、并购&合作、投资决策、产业规划、境外投资、战 略规划、风险评估等提供项目可行性报告&商业计划书编制、设计、规划、咨询等一站式解决方案。助力项目实施落地、提升 项目单位申报项目的通过效率。 （1）全球家电行业发展现状分析：家用电器主要指在家庭及类似场所中使用的各种电器和电子器具（以下简称"家电"）。家电 可以根据电器大小分为大家电和小家电，也可以根据应用场景分为白色家电（如空调、洗衣机和冰箱）、厨电及其他家电。 近年来，随着全球人口、城市化进程、消费者购买力和生活水平不断提高，全球家电行业市场规模稳步增长，根据中金企信数 据，2023年全球家电市场销售规模达到0.64万亿美元，相较2019年增长18.52%。其中，大家电的销售额为0.4万亿美元，小家电 的销售额为0.24万亿美元，分别占比约62.50%与37.50%。预计到2029年，全球家电行业市场规模将达到0.85万亿美元，大家电、 小家电的销售额 ...

Core Insights - Qingdao has completed an investment of 337.46 billion yuan in 1,073 key construction projects, achieving an investment completion rate of 102.8% by the end of October, two months ahead of schedule [1] - The acceleration of project implementation is significantly boosting the production capacity of the new energy vehicle sector in Qingdao, with several key projects in progress [2] - New projects are driving the advancement of advantageous industries towards higher value chains, particularly in the smart home appliance and modern light industry sectors [3] - The rapid construction of livelihood projects is addressing public expectations, with significant progress in transportation infrastructure and commercial developments [4] Investment and Project Completion - 1,073 key construction projects in Qingdao have cumulatively completed an investment of 337.46 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 102.8% [1] - Among these, 138 provincial key projects have invested 97.62 billion yuan (90.1% completion), 460 municipal projects have invested 228.19 billion yuan (94.1% completion), and 608 county-level projects have invested 108.31 billion yuan (126.3% completion) [1] New Energy and Automotive Sector - The implementation of key projects is crucial for the surge in new energy vehicle production in Qingdao, with several automotive projects achieving significant milestones [2] - The China Power Construction Corporation's offshore photovoltaic project in Jiaozhou Bay, with a total investment of 10.2 billion yuan, is set to produce approximately 1.07 billion kWh of green electricity annually after full capacity is reached [2] Industry Development - The Kaos Industrial Internet Ecological Park is attracting multiple projects in the smart home appliance sector, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan from eight new projects [3] - The Nestlé UHT milk production line and the Luckin Coffee innovation center are among the significant investments in the modern light industry, with the latter project valued at 3 billion yuan [3] Infrastructure and Livelihood Projects - The Sam's Club project in Qingdao is progressing with mechanical installation and interior decoration, aiming for a mid-2026 opening [4] - Key transportation projects, including the G15 Shenhail Highway expansion and the Weifang-Suzhou high-speed rail connection, are advancing ahead of schedule, enhancing the city's transport network [4] - The Qingdao Development and Reform Commission is streamlining approval processes to facilitate faster project implementation, creating a more favorable investment environment [4]

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances - **Industry**: Home Appliances, specifically focusing on air conditioning, refrigerators, and washing machines Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The central air conditioning business is under pressure in the real estate market, particularly in the refined decoration sector, with a potential decline of 15-20% expected [2][5] - Domestic sales (C-end and public construction) are anticipated to see slight growth, while external sales of refrigerators and washing machines are projected to grow in double digits [2][4] - Orders for processing products are expected to show a turning point in December, with a return to positive growth by the end of 2026 or early 2027 [2][3][5] Financial Performance and Projections - The company faces challenges in achieving its annual performance targets, aiming to unlock nearly 100% of its equity incentive goals [2][5] - For 2026, domestic sales will focus on enhancing product strength and cost competitiveness, while external sales are expected to grow by over 10% with improved profit margins [2][5] - The net profit margin for the central air conditioning business is stable, estimated between 6-10% [4][12] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its foundational capabilities by reducing SKU counts, integrating R&D platforms, and improving procurement efficiency to boost single product profitability [2][6] - Expansion of proprietary channel stores and strengthening of lower-tier channel construction are key strategies [2][7] - The company is optimistic about long-term growth in emerging markets, driven by increasing appliance penetration and favorable demographic trends [4][10] External Market Dynamics - The impact of national subsidy policy reduction on price competition is not straightforward; the company does not expect significant price increases despite subsidy reductions [6] - The company is focusing on structural products that benefit from subsidies, such as high-end air conditioning and fresh air systems [7] Profitability and Cost Management - External sales profitability recovery is primarily driven by gross margin improvements, with a 0.5 percentage point increase in profit margin expected, of which 0.3 percentage points come from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [8] - The processing product orders are gradually reducing inventory, indicating a potential recovery in sales [9] Regional Performance - The European market accounts for over 30% of the overall structure for air conditioning and refrigerators, with emerging markets like ASEAN and Central-South America showing significant growth potential despite seasonal fluctuations [10][11] - The company aims to increase overseas revenue contribution to over 20% within 3 to 5 years, leveraging new production capabilities [11] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a modest growth in the C-end market for new housing and second-hand demand, with a projected growth of around 10% in 2025 and single-digit growth in 2026 [18] - The new fresh air conditioning products are expected to have a gross margin advantage of at least 10 percentage points over non-fresh air products [21] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain a minimum dividend payout ratio of 50% and will consider increasing this ratio in the future [17] Additional Important Insights - The company is actively working on balancing cooperation and competition with Midea, focusing on resource optimization and market penetration strategies [15][16] - The integration of logistics and procurement strategies with Midea is progressing well, although details on overseas collaborations remain limited [14]

Summary of Changhong Meiling Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is facing increased sales pressure due to the gradual reduction of subsidies starting from Q3 2025, with a complete cancellation expected in Q4 2025. This has posed challenges for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [2][3][4] Company Performance - In Q4 2025, overall performance was subpar, with significant pressure on domestic sales due to high comparison bases from the previous year when subsidies were at their peak [3][4] - For external sales, refrigerators and washing machines are projected to maintain a growth rate of 10% to 20% for the year, but growth is slowing in Q4, stabilizing overall [2][3] - Air conditioning sales are primarily driven by orders and production concentrated in Q3 and Q4 of the previous year [3] Strategic Focus - Changhong Meiling adheres to a "profitable scale growth" strategy, emphasizing both scale and profit amidst fierce price competition [2][5] - The company is focused on resource integration and centralized procurement to reduce costs, with plans to enhance product line collaboration to unlock more potential [2][7] Market Dynamics - The impact of Xiaomi's self-built factories on Changhong Meiling is expected to be limited, with stable order expectations for the following year [2][6] - The overseas market for washing and refrigeration products is primarily in Europe (over 30% of revenue), with other regions like Africa and the Middle East contributing around 10% each [2][8] Production Capacity and Investment - Changhong Meiling plans to build new production lines to increase overseas air conditioning output due to insufficient capacity [3][11] - A new production line is being established in Mianyang to supplement the Hefei factory's annual capacity by 2 million units for washing machines [12] - A new base for large-capacity refrigerators is planned to meet overseas market demand [12] Product Development - High-end products, such as the M series, currently have a low market share but are gradually increasing. The company is introducing new products with enhanced preservation features [13] - Future investments will focus on health technology and innovation to improve the mid-to-high-end product structure [13] Challenges and Future Directions - The company faces challenges in both domestic and international markets but remains committed to developing its white goods matrix [17] - Future strategies include increasing R&D investment, enhancing brand recognition through industrial and channel collaboration, and steadily advancing market development to provide better returns for investors [17]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have shown increased volatility and a steady upward trend since November, influenced by divergent domestic and international fundamentals and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding a potential rate cut in December [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global zinc market is experiencing a significant supply shortage, with a deficit of 373,700 tons from January to September 2025, a stark contrast to a surplus of 32,000 tons during the same period last year [2] - In September, the global refined zinc supply shortage reached 35,700 tons, with a year-on-year increase in the deficit of 20,000 tons [2] - The LME zinc spot price premium over futures contracts peaked at $323 per ton in October, indicating tightness in the overseas spot market [2] - Domestic zinc market conditions are relatively loose, with a 32.56% month-on-month decrease in zinc concentrate imports in October, but a cumulative increase of 36.59% year-on-year from January to October [2] Profitability and Production Trends - Domestic smelting enterprises are undergoing a profound shift in profitability, with losses in refined zinc production offset by strong prices for by-product sulfuric acid, maintaining overall profits in the range of -350 to 200 CNY per ton [3] - Zinc concentrate producers are achieving high profits of up to 5,500 CNY per ton, leading to a preference for using self-produced zinc concentrate and an increase in refined zinc exports, expected to rise significantly in November [3] Structural Changes in End-User Demand - The downstream zinc demand is experiencing notable structural differentiation, with varying impacts across different application sectors and regional markets [4] - The white goods sector is under pressure, with production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines down 14.1% year-on-year as of December 2025 [4] - In contrast, the new energy vehicle sector is witnessing robust growth, with global sales increasing by 23% year-on-year in October, reaching 1.9 million units [4] - Investment demand in infrastructure and real estate remains weak, with infrastructure investment down 0.1% year-on-year and real estate development investment declining by 14.7% [4] Inventory and Market Conditions - Global zinc inventory changes further illustrate the market's divergent dynamics, with a 121% year-on-year increase in SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and a 4% decrease in domestic social inventory [5] - LME zinc inventory has significantly decreased by 80% year-on-year, despite a 40% month-on-month increase, indicating a historically low absolute level of 51,900 tons [5] Macroeconomic Influences - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has risen again, providing liquidity support for the global commodity market, which is favorable for zinc price trends [6] Fundamental Support Factors - The combination of overseas smelting plant production cuts, declining processing fees, high spot premiums, and low inventories provides strong support for zinc prices [7] - The closure of the refined zinc import window and the opening of the export window in the domestic market is expected to accelerate the flow of domestic zinc products overseas, alleviating supply pressure abroad and supporting domestic prices [7]

Core Insights - Midea has announced organizational restructuring and personnel appointments within its smart home business group to enhance operational efficiency and accountability [1] Group 1: Personnel Changes - Zhou Zhiwen has been appointed as the new president of the Kitchen and Water Heating Division, previously serving as the Vice President of Overseas Marketing in the Home Air Conditioning Division [1] - The previous president of the Kitchen and Water Heating Division, Zhang Bin, has not had his new role disclosed following the restructuring [1] - Other key appointments include Zhu Zhou as the Overseas Marketing General Manager for the Home Air Conditioning Division, and Ji Henglong as the Supply Chain Director for the same division [3] Group 2: Structural Adjustments - The restructuring includes the integration of the Lean Manufacturing and Supply Chain functions within the Microwave and Oven Division [5] - The operational center general managers from various cities will also take on roles as product general managers for the Kitchen and Water Heating Division, indicating potential layoffs in existing positions [2][1] - This restructuring is seen as a continuation of previous adjustments made in August, aimed at promoting synergy and operational focus within the company [6]

11月26日，南京海关所属金陵海关、南京禄口机场海关、新生圩海关召开新闻发布会。扬子晚报/紫牛 新闻记者采访中获悉，今年以来，海关通过深入开展促进跨境贸易便利化专项行动，持续优化口岸营商 环境，为南京外贸高质量发展注入强劲动能。 流程做减法 包裹整合从"繁"到"简" 南京综合保税区（龙潭片）的视客跨境电商保税备货仓库内，各类保税进口隐形眼镜商品整齐码放。与 以往不同的是，现在消费者下单的跨境保税商品与国内赠品，不再是分两次送达的两个包裹，而是装在 同一个包装盒里同步抵达。这背后，是南京海关所属金陵海关创新推出的"网购保税进口商品与国内货 物同仓仓储、同包同车集拼出区"新模式。 服务做加法 企业出海体验更优 在国内跨境购物更便捷的同时，"反向海淘热"正如火如荼。在南京海关所属南京禄口机场海关监管下， 一架装载90余吨服装、日用品等跨境电商包裹的全货机由南京禄口国际机场起飞，直飞比利时。"每年 的这个时候都是我们跨境电商最忙碌的时段，货运量比平时增长约1.5倍。"南京巴萨国际货运代理有限 公司机场负责人周磊表示，海关7×24小时快速通关服务确保了周末和夜间发出的货物不卡壳，"让我们 能牢牢抓住年底的销售黄金期。" ...

昨天，记者从南京地区海关召开的新闻发布会上获悉，今年前10个月，南京外贸进出口总值 4510.5亿元，同比增长0.7%，占同期全省进出口总值的9.2%。其中，出口总值2950.8亿元，增长 5%。在复杂多变的外贸环境下，这样一份稳健前行、量质齐升的"成绩单"来之不易，背后是一条怎样 的进阶之路？ 一个包裹的"旅程之变" 这正是南京地区海关强化政策支撑、优化营商环境的缩影。今年以来，金陵海关创新实施"集团 式"AEO（经认证的经营者）培育机制，新增高级认证企业5家，总数达81家，规模位居关区首位。同 时，完善特殊物品出入境联合监管机制，在全国率先实现CAR-T细胞治疗药物跨境供货，累计保障7批 次药物顺利出口。推行战略性新兴产业进口危化品"白名单"制度，对京东方等重点企业进口的113批危 化品实现快速放行。 一架货机的"年终冲刺" 岁末将至，欧美市场迎来购物旺季。随着中国电商平台在海外走红，"反向海淘"热度攀升，越来越 多的海外消费者通过跨境电商购买中国商品。 近日，在南京海关所属南京禄口机场海关监管下，一架装载90余吨服装、日用品等跨境电商包裹 的全货机由南京禄口国际机场起飞，直抵比利时。 "每年此时都是我们 ...

Core Insights - The current state of the Chinese economy is characterized by a weakening of three fundamental drivers: the large-scale consumption wave driven by technological revolution, the wealth effect tied to real estate, and the external market opportunities created by joining the WTO [4][12][14] - The economy is facing issues of "overdraft," "contraction," and "involution," indicating a need for comprehensive "repair" rather than mere stimulus or simple reforms [7][17] Group 1: Economic Drivers - The technological revolution has led to a significant consumption wave, particularly through the introduction of household appliances, which has been a key factor in economic growth over the past decades [9][10] - The wealth effect associated with real estate has played a crucial role in consumer spending, with a notable decline in this effect leading to reduced consumption despite stable income levels [11][13] - The external market created by China's entry into the WTO has been vital for economic expansion, but current trends indicate a retreat from globalization, contributing to economic stagnation [12][14] Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The economy is experiencing a "contraction" phase, where businesses and government revenues are declining sharply, reflecting a broader economic downturn [15][16] - There is a pressing need for societal and economic "repair" to restore normal consumption patterns and social life, which have been disrupted by the previous economic model [17][18] - The lack of normal social activities, such as marriage and childbirth among younger generations, is indicative of deeper societal issues that affect overall economic health [18]