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专家金刻羽警示:中国若不转型消费大国,就别妄想迈入富裕行列!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 08:12
Group 1 - China's manufacturing prowess is evident in sectors like high-speed rail, 5G, and electric vehicles, but the country must transition to being a consumer economy to achieve true wealth [1][3] - In 2023, China's final consumption expenditure contributed 82.5% to GDP growth, yet the overall consumption accounted for only about 54% of GDP, significantly lower than the US at 68% and Japan at 60% [3][5] - The reliance on an "investment + export" economic model has led to a "consumption deficit," which is unsustainable in the long term, especially amid international challenges like US-China trade tensions [5][7] Group 2 - The shift from an "external" to an "internal" economic focus is crucial for enhancing economic security and flexibility, as insufficient domestic consumption limits market returns for businesses [7][9] - The service sector in China only employs 47% of the workforce and contributes about 50% to GDP, compared to over 70% in developed countries, indicating structural issues in the economy [9][11] - The current service industry in China is largely low-end and lacks innovation, leading consumers to prefer overseas products and services [11][12] Group 3 - The development of the service sector is essential for improving consumption choices and quality, as evidenced by the high demand for foreign goods that meet consumer expectations [12][13] - Many urban centers in China lack engaging and creative commercial spaces, which diminishes consumer willingness to spend [13][17] - Enhancing the service industry can create jobs, stimulate consumption, and promote regional development, serving as a vital link between production and consumption [13][20] Group 4 - Local governments in China have historically prioritized GDP growth over quality of life services, leading to a neglect of sectors like education and healthcare [15][17] - There is a need to incorporate "consumption capacity" and "consumption quality" into local government performance assessments to encourage a focus on consumer satisfaction [18][20] - Successful examples from developed countries show that improving local services can significantly boost consumer spending and satisfaction [20][22] Group 5 - The transition from being a global "producer" to a robust "consumer" is essential for China's economic future, requiring reforms in income distribution, social security, and service sector development [24] - The focus should shift from export and investment metrics to understanding consumer behavior and enhancing living standards [24]