Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that increasing residents' income is central to addressing current economic challenges in China, highlighting the need for effective demand and consumer spending to drive economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The National Financial Work Conference has outlined a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026, focusing on employment support and income growth for residents through various funding channels [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference has introduced a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income, underscoring the foundational role of consumption in domestic demand and economic circulation [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The article identifies insufficient effective demand as a critical bottleneck for the Chinese economy, rooted in the disproportionate distribution of national income among the government, enterprises, and residents [2][3]. - It argues that breaking the long-standing bias that prioritizes investment over consumption is essential for enhancing domestic demand and consumer spending [3]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanisms - The article proposes the establishment of a transparent guarantee system to ensure fair competition and protect the rights of all economic entities, which would facilitate a more equitable distribution of national income [4]. - A protective guarantee system is suggested to provide a safety net for residents, enhancing social security and transfer payment efficiency to foster innovation and risk-taking [4]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Participation - Employment is highlighted as the primary channel for residents to engage in economic activities and share in economic growth, necessitating the removal of barriers to resource mobility and monopolies [5]. - The article stresses the importance of creating a system that allows for the free flow of resources and opportunities, which would lead to increased employment and economic participation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles emphasizes the importance of increasing residents' income as a fundamental strategy to boost domestic consumption and address the current economic challenges in China [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The National Financial Work Conference held on December 27-28 highlighted the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy into 2026, focusing on increasing residents' income through various financial support measures [1]. - The recent Central Economic Work Conference introduced a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income, underscoring the foundational role of consumption in domestic demand and economic circulation [1]. - The articles argue that the current economic bottleneck is insufficient effective demand, primarily due to inadequate purchasing power and disposable income among residents, which is exacerbated by an imbalance in income distribution among the government, enterprises, and residents [1][2]. Group 2: Structural Reforms - The articles advocate for a comprehensive reform to eliminate systemic barriers that hinder domestic demand and consumption, emphasizing a shift in policy focus towards human-centered investment [2]. - A transparent guarantee system is proposed to ensure fair competition and protect the rights of all economic participants, which would facilitate a more equitable distribution of national income [2][3]. - The establishment of a protective social safety net is deemed essential for providing economic stability and encouraging innovation and risk-taking among residents [3]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Participation - Employment is identified as the primary channel for residents to engage in economic activities and share in economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that enhance job opportunities and resource mobility [3][4]. - The articles stress the importance of creating an environment where economic opportunities are accessible to all, advocating for the removal of monopolistic barriers and the promotion of resource flow [3][4]. - The concept of "breaking" and "establishing" is introduced, suggesting that addressing existing constraints on income and consumption must go hand in hand with building new economic structures that support growth [4].

近期，全国住房城乡建设工作会议为明年的房地产市场定下了基调。核心思路很明确，不搞"大水漫 灌"，而是针对当前市场的关键问题，实施一套精准的"组合拳"来稳市场、促健康。 重点主要围绕三个方面展开，一是消化现有库存，鼓励地方政府收购空置商品房，转为保障房、人才房 等，让闲置房子发挥作用；二是支持合理购房，重点建设品质更好的"好房子"，并帮助想换房的家庭顺 利"卖旧买新"；三是守住安全底线，通过设立融资"白名单"、严管预售资金等措施，预防风险、稳定市 场信心。 虽然这些措施直接针对的是房地产行业本身，但如果我们放到当前整个经济大环境中去看，就能理解其 背后更深的意义。 除了要让楼市稳住，我觉得还有重要的一点，是要让中国经济在外部增长动力放缓的背景下，通过激活 房地产这个关键环节，来带动内需、疏通国内经济循环。 全球经济增长的引擎在减弱，地缘政治的摩擦却在升温。 所以，那种高度依赖国际市场、靠外部需求拉动国内生产的"外循环"模式，风险正变得越来越大。我们 引以为傲的产业链，不能再只把安全感建立在遥远的海外订单上，就好比一艘巨轮，不能永远只依靠吹 向特定方向的风。 那，具体可能会如何与扩大内需这一国家战略相衔接？又如何 ...

几乎同一时间，比亚迪、字节、宁德时代集体加工资，信号非常强烈 3）目标更加明确，国家切蛋糕时，要把更大一块分给老百姓，提高劳动报酬的比重。 也就是说，全民加工资，明年就进入落实阶段。 近日，有消息称比亚迪已对技术研发人员实施涨薪。根据员工反馈，本次调薪幅度多数在1000元左右，个别可达3200元，也有部分在数百元不等。公司通常 设有多个调薪档次，并执行相应的标准。 比亚迪方面已对此回应：技术研发人员涨薪情况属实。 几乎在同一时期，比亚迪、字节跳动、宁德时代等多家大厂集体薪酬，这背后，很明显跟上面要求有关。 回顾12月11日相关会议，明确提出要「制定实施城乡居民增收计划」。与往年相比，今年有三个明显变化： 1）范围更广，从中低收入扩大到全体城乡居民，所有人都有份。 2）动真格，从原则性意见转变为具体行动方案，预计2026年起效果将更为明显； 今天还有件大新闻，央行决定实施一次性信用修复政策，这是一个巨大的进步。 央行还承认一个事实，这几年的逾期，不全是大家的错，大环境也有责任。现在通过抹去记录这种行为，这是上层的投资于人的姿态。 从投资于物转向投资于人，是未来十年大趋势。 未来十年，国家不会再像过去那样单纯靠砸 ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月14日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 除了商业航天，还有哪些产业趋势值得关注？ ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为12月8日-12日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：大盘表现 ✓ 上证指数走势 4 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to September and slightly above seasonal levels [2] - Service prices shifted from a 0.3% decline in September to a 0.2% increase in October, influenced by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, airfare, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2] - Year-on-year, the CPI turned from a 0.3% decline in September to a 0.2% increase in October, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, marking the first increase of the year [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to September, indicating a continuous improvement in price levels [5] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include improved supply-demand relationships and the impact of input costs on the prices of non-ferrous metals and petroleum-related industries [4][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price data indicates a steady enhancement of economic vitality and the release of domestic demand potential, supported by macro policies and market confidence [1] - The recovery in domestic demand is expected to continue to support industrial product prices, with ongoing policy measures aimed at stabilizing competition in various sectors [6][7] - The narrowing of PPI declines is attributed to improved order conditions and the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to have a positive impact on related industries [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported a decrease in new RMB loans for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a slowdown in credit growth and highlighting the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and consumer lending [6]. Group 1: Corporate Loans - Corporate loans continue to act as a stabilizing force, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% as of Q3, despite a slight decline from the previous quarter [7] - New corporate loans in Q3 amounted to 1.83 trillion RMB, accounting for 100% of all new loans, with significant contributions from manufacturing, technology, and green sectors [7] - The manufacturing sector maintains a high level of loan issuance, while technology loans continue to grow at double-digit rates, and green loans remain strong, particularly in infrastructure upgrades and clean energy [7] Group 2: Real Estate Loans - Real estate loans experienced a negative growth of 0.1% year-on-year, with a total balance of 52.8 trillion RMB as of Q3, reflecting a decline of 800 billion RMB in the first three quarters [8] - The Q3 single-quarter real estate loan reduction was 500 billion RMB, indicating increased early repayment pressures [8] - The outlook for the real estate market remains uncertain, with potential for further declines in mortgage loans unless supportive policies are implemented [8] Group 3: Household Loans - Household loans grew by 2.3% year-on-year as of Q3, with a total increase of 1.1 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, but a decline of 700 billion RMB in Q3 alone [9] - Business loans are a key driver of credit expansion for households, while non-housing consumer loans are under pressure [9] - The impact of fiscal incentives for consumer and business loans remains uncertain, with seasonal factors influencing retail loan issuance in September [9]

Core Viewpoint - The focus on domestic economic circulation has intensified due to the impact of US-China trade tensions and the global pandemic, leading to a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic production, consumption, and circulation to stabilize the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Contributions - From 2020 to 2025, domestic demand has contributed an average of 86.4% to economic growth, with consumer spending accounting for 56.2% of this contribution, indicating a significant shift towards internal circulation [2][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales rising by 7.7%, demonstrating the effectiveness of policies promoting domestic consumption [6]. Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector is positioned as a key beneficiary of the domestic circulation strategy, with the government promoting local production to ensure food security and reduce reliance on imports [8][12]. - By 2024, the planting area for soybeans is expected to expand to 12 million acres, increasing the self-sufficiency rate from 15% to 16%, reflecting a focus on enhancing domestic agricultural capabilities [8][12]. - The income of farmers has increased by over 7% due to the shift towards domestic sales, supported by government subsidies for agricultural machinery [8][12]. Group 3: Digital Economy and Self-Media - The self-media sector has seen explosive growth, with short video users exceeding 1 billion in 2023 and advertising revenue projected to reach hundreds of billions by 2024, driven by increased domestic consumption [10][12]. - The government's regulations on foreign content have encouraged the production of local cultural content, leading to a 30% increase in viewership for domestic animations in 2022 [10][12]. Group 4: Retail Industry - The retail industry has emerged as a direct winner from the domestic circulation strategy, with online retail sales reaching 11 trillion yuan in 2020 and accounting for over 25% of total consumption by 2023 [12][14]. - The government has implemented measures such as consumption vouchers and trade-in programs, which are expected to drive sales by 1.1 trillion yuan in 2025 [12][14]. - The retail sector is enhancing supply chain efficiency through digitalization, contributing to a growth rate exceeding 4% in 2024 [12][14]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - By 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with domestic demand contributing over 80% to economic growth [14]. - The interconnection of agriculture, self-media, and retail sectors is crucial for stimulating demand and ensuring stable economic development, benefiting both consumers and businesses [14].

Market Trends - The market is experiencing a rotation of funds from technology stocks to undervalued sectors such as liquor and coal, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] - The technology sector is expected to rebound after recent adjustments, prompting selective buying opportunities [1] Investment Strategies - The company has increased its position in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector-focused funds, anticipating benefits from the ongoing AI wave [3] - A significant investment of 5000 yuan was made in a gold ETF, driven by the metal's strong performance due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The company has also invested in a consumer-focused fund, which combines traditional and emerging consumption sectors, capitalizing on upcoming consumption peaks and government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending [5] Sector Analysis - The renewable energy sector is benefiting from global green transitions, with domestic solar installations expected to exceed 200GW this year [6] - The digital economy, represented by AI and semiconductors, is accelerating growth opportunities for hard-tech companies [6] - The biopharmaceutical sector is entering an innovation cycle supported by favorable policies [6] Portfolio Adjustments - The company is strategically reducing exposure to the photovoltaic sector while maintaining positions in semiconductor and new energy vehicle ETFs, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations [9] - The company is focused on managing risk and optimizing portfolio performance through careful position adjustments [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "economic internal circulation" strategy on the real estate market in China, highlighting concerns about property value depreciation and the changing dynamics of housing as an investment asset [1][7][19]. Group 1: Economic Internal Circulation - "Economic internal circulation" refers to a development model where a country's economy relies more on domestic markets, demand, and supply, forming a new growth pattern [2]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic demand contributed 89.3% to economic growth, indicating a significant reliance on internal demand [2]. Group 2: Consumer Market Changes - To stimulate domestic consumption, over 300 cities in China will host "Golden Autumn Consumption Season" activities starting September 2025, expected to boost retail sales by approximately 7% [4]. - Major discounts on large consumer goods, such as cars and home appliances, are being offered, with some "trade-in" subsidies reaching up to 15% of the product price [4]. Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The employment market is undergoing structural changes, with new industries like digital economy and health services seeing a 15.3% year-on-year increase in employment [5]. - The shift towards new job opportunities reflects the ongoing structural adjustment in the job market [5]. Group 4: Investment Channel Diversification - New regulations effective September 1, 2025, will broaden the range of financial products available for personal investment, including carbon-neutral funds and public REITs [6]. - REITs offer a more liquid investment option compared to direct property purchases, with annual returns around 5%, appealing to families seeking better wealth management [6]. Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a price correction, with a 2.3% decline in residential price indices across 70 major cities in the first half of 2025 [7]. - First-tier cities show relative price stability, while second-tier cities have seen slight declines, and third- and fourth-tier cities face more significant adjustments, with some experiencing over a 5% drop [7][8]. Group 6: Factors Influencing Real Estate Prices - The decline in new housing supply is attributed to ongoing regulatory policies, with new construction down 18.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [8]. - Demographic changes, including an increase in the elderly population and urbanization rates, are affecting housing demand, leading to a slowdown in price growth [8]. Group 7: Implications for Households - The return of housing's "residential attribute" suggests a shift away from its investment appeal, benefiting genuine homebuyers by easing purchasing pressure [11]. - The real estate market is expected to exhibit structural differentiation, requiring buyers to make more informed decisions based on location and economic conditions [12]. Group 8: Recommendations for Different Buyer Types - For first-time homebuyers, the current market presents favorable conditions, with opportunities to purchase at lower prices and increased developer promotions [14]. - Families seeking to upgrade their living conditions should consider the current market adjustments as a chance to trade up to better properties [16]. - Investors should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on economically strong areas and being prepared for long-term holdings due to lower rental yields [17].