经济内循环下的地产"冷思考"：房子，究竟还能为你"增值"多少？ 上周末，一场与老友的久别重逢，将话题不经意间引向了炙热的房地产市场。席间，一位在地产行业摸爬滚打了十余载的朋友，无奈地吐露心声："如今的 市场，真是越来越难做。公司项目的去化率仅在六成左右徘徊，库存积压的压力让我们都不敢再轻易扩张拿地。"而另一位刚在城市郊区购置新居的同学， 眉头紧锁，忧心忡忡地抛出一连串问题："听说'经济内循环'的影响日渐显现，房价还会继续下跌吗？我手里的房子，究竟该不该现在就卖掉？" 这份普遍存在的焦虑，并非空穴来风。随着2025年9月新一轮经济调整措施的落地，关于"房子是否会逐渐失去其价值"的讨论，如同潮水般涌动在各大社交 平台。究其原因，对于绝大多数中国家庭而言，房产往往是承载家庭财富最主要的载体，其价格的任何风吹草动，都直接牵动着家庭财富的稳定之弦。 "内循环"时代，经济引擎的全新转向 那么，何谓"经济内循环"？简而言之，它描绘的是一个国家经济发展更多地依赖于国内市场、国内需求以及国内供给，从而构建起一个以国内大循环为主体 的发展新格局。这一战略性概念在2020年首次被提出后，在全球经济格局不断演变的背景下，已逐渐成为中 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the old-for-new consumption policy has shown continuous positive effects over the past year [1] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the total amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises nationwide increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1] - The information transmission and software industry, as well as the technology service industry, experienced significant growth in equipment procurement, with increases of 27.8% and 28.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The old-for-new policy has stimulated diverse consumer demand, with traditional and smart consumption sectors showing sustained vitality [1] - Sales of daily household appliances and audiovisual equipment increased by 44.5% and 22.8% year-on-year, respectively, from April 2024 to July 2025 [1] - The sales of service robots surged by 51.1%, while the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 81.7% during the same period [1] Group 3 - The combination of the "two new" policies has directly driven retail demand growth, which in turn has positively impacted the supply side [1] - Manufacturing enterprises have accelerated equipment updates, leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in manufacturing sales revenue [1] - The economic internal circulation has become smoother as a result of these developments [1]

Group 1 - The large-scale equipment renewal and old-for-new consumption policy have shown continuous positive effects over the past year [1] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the total amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises nationwide increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1] - The procurement amount for machinery and equipment in the information transmission and software industry, as well as the technology service industry, grew by 27.8% and 28.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The old-for-new policy has stimulated diverse consumer demand, with retail sales of daily household appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of furniture and sanitary ware rose by 30.1% and 13.6% respectively, while the sales of service robots surged by 51.1% [1] - National sales of new energy vehicles increased by 81.7% during the same period [1] Group 3 - The combination of the "two new" policies has directly driven retail demand growth, which in turn has positively impacted the supply side, leading manufacturing enterprises to accelerate equipment upgrades [1] - Manufacturing sales revenue increased by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing to a smoother economic internal circulation [1]

Group 1 - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the trade-in policy for consumer goods has shown significant effects over the past year, aiding in industrial transformation and stimulating diverse consumer demand, thus promoting economic circulation [1][2] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises nationwide increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with notable growth in the information transmission software and technology service sectors at 27.8% and 28.3% respectively, highlighting the supportive role of equipment updates [1] - In the traditional and smart consumption sectors, retail sales have surged, with home appliances and audiovisual equipment sales increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively, while furniture and sanitary ware retail sales rose by 30.1% and 13.6% [1] Group 2 - The sales revenue of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year, driven by the significant growth in retail demand, which in turn has encouraged manufacturing enterprises to accelerate equipment upgrades [2] - The sales of service robots have seen a remarkable year-on-year growth of 51.1%, indicating a strong market response to the policies [1] - The new energy vehicle sales nationwide surged by 81.7% from April 2024 to July 2025, reflecting the positive impact of the trade-in policy on the automotive industry [1]

Group 1 - The "Two New" policies have shown significant effects in promoting industrial transformation, boosting consumer demand, and facilitating economic circulation [1][2] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the procurement amount of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1] - The information transmission and software industry, as well as the technology service industry, experienced equipment procurement growth of 27.8% and 28.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated diverse consumer demand, with retail sales of daily household appliances and audiovisual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively from April 2024 to July 2025 [1] - Sales of service robots surged by 51.1%, while the retail sales of furniture and sanitary ware grew by 30.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - The new energy vehicle sales saw a remarkable increase of 81.7% during the same period, indicating strong momentum in the automotive sector [1] Group 3 - The "Two New" policies have directly driven retail demand growth, which in turn has positively impacted the supply side, leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in manufacturing sales revenue [2] - The implementation of these policies has contributed to a smoother internal economic circulation [2]

Group 1 - The implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and the old-for-new consumption policy has shown continuous effectiveness in promoting industrial transformation, boosting consumer demand, and facilitating economic circulation [1] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises nationwide increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [3] - The information transmission and software industry, along with the technology service industry, experienced nearly a 30% increase in equipment procurement, indicating that the large-scale equipment renewal policy is providing new momentum for industrial transformation [3] Group 2 - The old-for-new policy has significantly driven diverse consumer demand, with daily household appliance sales increasing by 44.5% year-on-year and furniture retail sales rising by 30.1% from April 2024 to July 2025 [6] - The demand for smart consumption has surged, with sales in the service robot manufacturing industry increasing by over 50% [6] - The policy has also benefited the automotive sector, with nationwide sales of new energy vehicles growing by 81.7% year-on-year, indicating a rapid growth trend [6] Group 3 - Since the implementation of the "two new" policies, retail demand has continued to grow, prompting manufacturing enterprises to accelerate equipment upgrades, creating a positive interaction from policy drive to demand release and then to industrial upgrading [10] - From April 2024 to July 2025, manufacturing sales revenue increased by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing to a smoother economic internal circulation [10]

Core Insights - The implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and the "trade-in" policy has shown significant results in promoting industrial transformation, boosting consumer demand, and facilitating economic circulation [1] Equipment Procurement - From April 2024 to July 2025, the amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises nationwide increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1] - The information transmission and software industry, along with technology services, experienced nearly a 30% increase in equipment procurement [1] Consumer Demand - The "trade-in" policy has significantly stimulated diverse consumer demand, with daily household appliance sales increasing by 44.5% year-on-year and furniture retail sales rising by 30.1% [1] - The demand for smart consumption has surged, with sales in the service robot manufacturing industry growing by over 50% [1] Automotive Industry Impact - The policy has also benefited the automotive sector, with nationwide sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 81.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth momentum [1] Retail and Manufacturing Interaction - Since the implementation of the "two new" policies, retail demand has continued to grow, prompting manufacturing enterprises to accelerate equipment upgrades, creating a positive interaction from policy drive to demand release and industrial upgrading [1] - As of July this year, manufacturing sales revenue increased by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing to a smoother economic internal circulation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for creating consumption scenarios that enhance market demand elasticity to ensure effective policy implementation [1] - The introduction of the "two interest subsidy" policies represents a new national subsidy measure aimed at promoting consumption and reflects the central government's strategic layout to boost economic growth [1][4] - The effective implementation of these policies relies not only on the published implementation plans but also on creating favorable conditions for their success [1] Group 2 - Current issues with consumer willingness and ability to spend are highlighted, with significant declines in household loans indicating pressure on consumer confidence [2] - The data shows a substantial increase in household savings, suggesting a shift towards precautionary savings due to uncertainties about the future [2] - The decision to sacrifice current consumption for future security may lead to a lack of effective demand elasticity in the market, particularly affecting service consumption [3] Group 3 - To ensure the success of the "two interest subsidy" policies, it is essential to create an environment that promotes income growth and fair employment opportunities [3] - The need for a robust protective social security system is emphasized, as it addresses structural economic issues and reduces the tendency for precautionary savings [4] - The "two interest subsidy" policies are seen as a new lever for enhancing public funding's multiplier effect, which requires increasing demand elasticity to solidify the foundation for this leverage [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market is primarily driven by external factors, particularly the favorable CPI data from the US, which has increased expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.76% and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.62% [2]. - A significant milestone was reached as the trading volume in A-shares exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 114 trading days [3]. Influencing Factors - The US CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was lower than market expectations, indicating no immediate inflation risk [4]. - The anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to enhance global liquidity, benefiting various asset classes, including A-shares [5]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized as a "slow bull" market, driven by both government support and institutional investment, with a notable absence of significant pullbacks since June [12][14]. - The market is currently trading on liquidity rather than fundamentals, with the focus on indices rather than individual stock performance [15][23]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on index investments rather than chasing individual stocks or hot sectors, as the current environment favors a slow and steady upward trend in indices [25]. - The market's behavior resembles that of the Nasdaq, where sustained upward movements are expected despite potential short-term corrections [25].

Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - The consumer willingness to spend in China is in a favorable zone for Q2 2025, with a stable trend observed over the last three quarters [1] - Major areas of potential consumer spending include home appliances, digital products, clothing, travel, education, and fitness services [1] - In terms of household spending, consumers plan to allocate their disposable income primarily towards savings (51.8%), children's education (45.3%), travel (34.4%), mortgage repayments (32.5%), and healthcare (30.4%) [1] Group 2: Automotive Consumption - The proportion of consumers planning to purchase a car has increased to 9.4%, a slight rise of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - Among those intending to buy, 29.4% prefer hybrid vehicles (down 4.7 percentage points), 20.9% prefer electric vehicles (up 1.1 percentage points), and 34.7% prefer fuel vehicles (down 1.1 percentage points) [2] - The highest percentage of consumers (43.8%) plan to buy cars priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, with 61.3% favoring domestic brands [2] Group 3: Travel Consumption - The percentage of consumers choosing travel has increased by 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter and by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The proportion of consumers planning to travel in the next six months has risen by 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter and by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a growing travel budget [3] - The steady growth in travel consumption reflects the resilience and vitality of China's consumer market, suggesting the need for further development of tourism projects that meet consumer demands [3]