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百威亚太(01876.HK):消费环境承压 3Q25公司仍处调整阶段
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-10 20:26
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a double-digit decline in earnings year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating a continued adjustment phase in its operations [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Q3 2025 earnings are projected to decline by double digits year-on-year due to slow recovery in the Chinese market and adjustments in business strategies [1] - The Eastern China region is anticipated to see a double-digit decline in revenue, while the Indian market continues its growth trend [1] - The Western Korean market may experience a slight revenue decline due to weak on-premise channels and pricing pressures [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The overall performance in overseas markets is better than in the domestic market, with the Korean market maintaining stability supported by pricing advantages and brand strength [2] - In the Korean market, a slight year-on-year decline in sales is expected, but performance is likely to remain better than the industry average [2] - The Indian market continues to show a robust growth trend, benefiting from the structural shift towards high-end products and non-on-premise channels [2] Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - Due to slower-than-expected recovery in the Chinese market, EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 3.1% to $1.627 billion and $1.715 billion, respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at HKD 9.8, corresponding to 8.6x and 8.2x EV/EBITDA for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price reflecting 7.1x and 6.7x EV/EBITDA multiples [2] - The current stock price presents a 21.3% upside potential compared to the target price, maintaining an outperform rating [2]