盈利预测与估值 因中国市场复苏节奏慢于预期，因此下调2025/26 年EBITDA3.1%/3.1%到16.27/17.15 亿美元，同时考虑 到整体估值中枢上移，我们维持目标价9.8 港币，目标价对应2025/26 年8.6x/8.2xEV/EBITDA，当前股 价对应2025/26 年7.1x/6.7x EV/EBITDA倍数，当前股价对比目标价有21.3%上行空间，维持跑赢评级。 风险 升级趋势性放缓导致高端化不及预期，成本依然高企，市场竞争加剧，食品安全等。 我们预计3Q25 公司盈利同比双位数下滑，仍处于调整阶段。我们预计东部中国区在行业复苏缓慢背景 下，收入同比双位数下滑，印度市场延续增长趋势；西部韩国市场在现饮渠道疲软及提价红利等因素影 响下，收入同比或微降；公司整体收入或同比高单-双位数下滑，考虑到费用投放或部分计入三季度等 因素，利润率或同比略下降，使得3Q25 盈利同比双位数下降。 关注要点 中国区行业整体复苏节奏偏慢，公司持续推进业务与渠道策略的调整。我们预计3Q25 中国区销量同比 或有双位数左右下滑，主因当前消费信心与餐饮渠道复苏仍显缓慢及公司主动去库存所致；而ASP受非 现饮占比提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xianfeng Holdings (stock code: 002141) has approved the proposal to terminate relevant agreements related to its subsidiary Kangxiyuan's feed business, indicating a strategic exit from this sector [1] Group 1: Agreement Termination - The board of Xianfeng Holdings convened on September 26, 2025, to review and approve the termination of agreements with Zunyi Riquan and other companies regarding the leasing and purchasing of feed factories [1] - Kangxiyuan plans to negotiate the termination of these agreements and exit the feed business, with the handover process to be completed gradually after the agreements are signed [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The agreement regarding the termination of the feed purchase and sales agreements stipulates that all outstanding payments must be settled by October 15, 2025 [1] - The rental contract termination agreement specifies that the landlord must return 488,200 yuan in rent by October 15 [1] - The termination of these agreements is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's future operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Junyou Co., Ltd. is attributed to governance improvements, business adjustments, and tax incentives in the western region, which have collectively enhanced market confidence and investor expectations [2]. Group 1: Governance Improvements - The company has made significant progress in optimizing its governance structure, completing six core system revisions related to fund management, independent directors, and company bylaws, which has notably increased the standardization of governance [2]. - The controlling shareholder fully subscribed to a capital increase of 80 million yuan and provided related financing, indicating strong support from the major shareholder and stabilizing investor expectations [2]. Group 2: Business Adjustments - Junyou Co., Ltd. is undergoing structural adjustments by transferring qualifications to subsidiaries and expanding into markets outside the region, which may incur short-term costs but is expected to benefit long-term professional operations [2]. - The company utilized its capital reserves to cover a loss of 319 million yuan, thereby improving its balance sheet structure [2]. Group 3: Tax Incentives - The company benefits from tax incentives under the western development policy, allowing it to enjoy a 15% corporate income tax rate, resulting in annual tax savings of approximately 3 million yuan [2]. Group 4: Industry Context - The oil industry is significantly influenced by international conditions, and recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices may have stimulated related sectors [2]. - On September 24, stocks in the oil sector experienced a collective rise, indicating a certain level of sectoral correlation [2]. Group 5: Technical Indicators - From a technical perspective, if the MACD indicator forms a golden cross or breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, it may attract the attention of technical investors [2]. - Data from Tonghuashun shows a net inflow of large orders on that day, indicating the involvement of major funds in driving the stock price to its limit [2].

Group 1: Zhuangzhuang Group - Zhuangzhuang Group announced the gradual shutdown of its "Free Market" business to focus on the high-growth "Official Verification" model, which has become the mainstream choice for users on the platform since 2019 [1] - The "Free Market" business currently accounts for less than 3% of the platform's overall GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) [1] - This strategic decision aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance platform credibility [1] Group 2: Bona Film Group - Bona Film Group reported that CITIC Securities Investment Co., Ltd. and its concerted parties reduced their shareholding to 8.90% after selling a total of 15.17 million shares, representing 1.10% of the company's total equity [2] - The film industry is still in an adjustment period, prompting investors to monitor shareholder movements and improvements in the company's fundamentals [3] Group 3: Changbai Mountain - Changbai Mountain's subsidiary, Yiyou Company, plans to pre-purchase 3.15 million yuan worth of ski tickets from a related party, securing exclusive agency rights for the 2025-2026 winter season [4] - After selling all purchased ski tickets, Yiyou Company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 330,000 yuan [4] - The company will also pre-purchase 15 million yuan worth of scenic area tickets at a 15% discount, which is expected to enhance profit margins and support long-term profit growth [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that IKEA has canceled breakfast services in several stores in China, including Wuhan, Beijing, and Nantong, due to business adjustments, while other locations continue to offer breakfast [1] - IKEA plans to invest 273 million yuan in the 2025 fiscal year, focusing on sleep-related products and food categories, aiming to introduce over 500 lower-priced products [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by business adjustments leading to short-term fluctuations, with a focus on optimizing operational rhythm and product layout to strengthen long-term development foundations [2] - The domestic market is under short-term pressure, while the overseas market continues to grow, with expectations for the new AQ-400 product to ramp up production [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -40.77 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 820.03% [1] - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 includes: - Endoscope equipment: Revenue of 240 million yuan (down 29.63%), gross margin of 63.75% (down 8.34 percentage points) - Endoscopic diagnostic consumables: Revenue of 9.66 million yuan (up 40.10%), gross margin of 22.74% (down 23.18 percentage points) - Endoscope maintenance services: Revenue of 9.33 million yuan (up 122.29%), gross margin of 70.76% (up 3.02 percentage points) [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 62.39%, down 9.07 percentage points, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin overseas business and changes in domestic product structure [2] Market Strategy and Product Development - The company is actively expanding its presence in both domestic and overseas markets, with successful product approvals and marketing efforts driving growth in overseas revenue [3] - The company has launched multiple new products, including the AQ-400 flagship model and various endoscopic devices, enhancing its product matrix for long-term growth [4] - The company has conducted 16 grassroots training activities across 11 provinces and 13 cities in China to promote endoscopic technology and expand its market reach [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 830 million, 995 million, and 1.197 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.7%, 19.9%, and 20.4% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 47 million, 94 million, and 156 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 125.8%, 98.1%, and 66.1% respectively [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 136X, 68X, and 41X [4]

Group 1 - The company held a conference call on September 5, 2023, with six institutions including Changjiang Securities and various fund management companies for targeted research [1] - The company reported a decrease in other business income due to the expiration of the licensing agreement for the Hush Puppies adult footwear category, leading to a reduction in licensing fees [2] - The company plans to self-manage the Hush Puppies adult footwear category, with changes in online and offline sales channels [2] Group 2 - The company has seen growth in its men's and women's clothing business, with revenue from this category expected to reach 10.06% by the end of 2024, up from 22.87% in the first half of this year [3] - The company aims to further develop its men's and women's clothing business through product upgrades and channel expansion [3] - Positive sales feedback was reported for August, attributed to the launch of autumn new products and improved store presentations, indicating increased consumer spending [4] Group 3 - The company has experienced a reduction in government subsidies in the first half of the year, primarily due to decreased support funds for subsidiaries [5] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy and may consider increasing the dividend ratio if profitability continues to improve without significant capital expenditures [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hema is further retracting its non-core business operations by shutting down Hema Neighborhood Pickup, indicating a strategic focus on its main business lines, Hema Fresh and Super Hema NB [1][2][4] Business Adjustments - Hema Neighborhood Pickup will cease operations on October 4, 2023, with user demands being transferred to Hema Fresh and Super Hema NB [1][2] - The current business matrix includes four formats: Hema Fresh (429 stores), Hema X Membership Stores (1 store), Hema Neighborhood (119 stores, to be closed), and Hema Outlet NB (298 stores) [2][3] - Hema Neighborhood was launched in 2021 to reduce delivery costs and target community users, but its expansion was not sustainable, leading to its eventual closure [3][4] Market Analysis - Experts suggest that the closure of Hema Neighborhood is a continuation of Hema's strategy to focus on its core businesses, as community group buying has proven difficult to sustain [4][5] - Hema's current opportunities lie in upgrading mature supermarket formats and the rapid growth of discount formats, while challenges include organizational management and supply chain optimization [4][5] Future Plans - Hema plans to open 100 new Hema Fresh stores this year, aiming to exceed 520 stores by the end of 2023 [6] - Super Hema NB is in a growth phase, with nearly 300 stores, targeting price-sensitive consumers in lower-tier markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 91 Assistant, once a leading mobile management tool in China, will officially cease all services on the 27th of this month, marking the end of an era for many users who relied on its functionalities [5][18]. Company Overview - 91 Assistant was originally developed in 2007 as iPhone PC Suite to address synchronization issues with iPhones, quickly gaining 200,000 users within three months [9]. - In 2008, the tool was acquired by NetDragon for 100,000 yuan and rebranded as "91 Mobile Assistant," subsequently launching its first version [9]. - By 2012, 91 Assistant had over 127 million users and facilitated over 10 billion app downloads, becoming the largest third-party app distribution platform in China at that time [13]. Market Position and Evolution - During the transition from feature phones to smartphones, 91 Assistant pioneered cross-system management, supporting multiple operating systems, which allowed users to manage files and install applications easily [12]. - The peak of 91 Assistant's popularity coincided with a lack of alternative app distribution channels, making it a vital tool for users during the early smartphone era [13]. Acquisition and Decline - In 2013, Baidu acquired 91 Assistant for $1.9 billion, marking one of the largest mergers in China's internet history, raising expectations for its future [15]. - However, as Apple and Android improved their ecosystems, the necessity for 91 Assistant diminished, leading to a gradual decline in its relevance [16]. Service Termination - The official announcement of service termination cited business adjustments and product optimization needs, although the decline had been evident for years [5][7]. - Users are advised to back up their data before the service ends, as all stored data will be permanently deleted post-termination [5][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of recovery in profit growth during the second quarter, with a narrowing revenue decline and positive profit growth, indicating that organizational management adjustments and business efficiency improvements are beginning to take effect [1][4]. - The strategic shift from a traffic-driven model to a brand-focused approach is ongoing, with new product launches contributing positively to revenue, despite challenges in the dermatology innovation business [2][4]. - The company has implemented cost optimization measures, resulting in improved marketing efficiency and a significant reduction in sales expense ratio in the second quarter [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.57%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 221 million yuan, down 35.38% [1]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 1.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.44%, but net profit increased by 20.89% to 119 million yuan, indicating a significant turnaround from a 65% decline in the previous quarter [1]. - The gross margin for the first half was 70.99%, down 3.52 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by intensified industry competition and adjustments in the skincare business [3]. Business Segment Performance - The dermatology innovation business generated revenue of 912 million yuan in the first half, down 33.97%, while the medical terminal business revenue was 673 million yuan, down 9.44% [2]. - The raw materials business remained stable with revenue of 626 million yuan, and the nutrition science innovation business saw a 32.4% increase in revenue to 38 million yuan [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 452 million, 545 million, and 637 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 60.9, 50.5, and 43.2 times [4][5].