Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

新消费：行情逻辑复盘，核心标的梳理 20250520 摘要 • 国海证券看好美护、黄金珠宝和出行链板块，认为黄金珠宝受益于低基数 和合理估值，出行链在暑期有望持续增长，美护板块已先行上涨。建议关 注黄金珠宝、美护和出行链的投资机会。 • 新消费行情预计持续至暑假，并可能延续至下半年。五一和清明节数据显 示消费者出行意愿强烈，美护和黄金珠宝板块也展现出增长潜力。 • 国海证券推荐老铺黄金、长荣股份、上美股份等个股。老铺黄金业绩确定 性高，长荣股份 C 端增速强劲，上美股份 2025 年业绩确定性较高，估值 合理。 • 2025 年化妆品行业整体乐观，一季度跑赢社零大盘，国货市占率持续提 升。选股逻辑关注市场敏感型和企稳回暖型公司，上美股份符合两类标准。 • 新品牌 NewPay 表现突出，预计全年收入至少 8 亿，经营利润率约 20%。主品牌韩束在抖音自播占比提升，天猫等渠道发力，并扩展彩妆和 男士洗护品类，预计 2025 年整体业绩成长性较强。 • 老铺黄金处于天时地利人和的较好阶段，4 月份 SKP 体系销售同比增长 140%~150%，万象体系销售同比增长 150%以上，新开门店带动销售 持续破圈，70% ...

东吴证券发了份和38国对比的消费报告，里面藏着消费啥时候能起来的关键门道！ 从居民能拿到手的钱看，我国占GDP比重比老美、墨西哥和日本都低。 主要差在财产性收入上，我国这一项占GDP才3.2%，因为股市不给力，大家只能靠银行那点利息。 不过咱个税轻，占GDP才1.4%，所以实际到手钱和其他38国平均差不多。但同样收入水平下，我国居民消 费占GDP只有37.2%，买房花太多是主因。 超20%收入砸房贷里了，人家38国平均才8.3%。 二，散户要怎么做？ 好多人觉得消费还没起来，这其实是老眼光，没看到背后的变化。 今儿咱全掰扯清楚，文末还有重要数据，错过准后悔！ 一，东吴证券的消费报告 东吴证券发了份消费报告，拿我国和38个国家比了比消费相关的情况。 股市里，先有个别股票带头赚钱，整个行情才会热闹起来。 那些能大涨的股票，在启动前早就被机构盯上，偷偷布局了。 等散户发现股价猛涨再跟风，很可能机构正准备撤，这时候进场就是给别人当接盘侠。 想在股市里赚钱，最关键的是摸清机构到底在怎么买卖。 很多股票前期一直在横盘震荡，散户根本猜不透后面是涨是跌。靠运气瞎猜，赌对了是运气好，但又有几 个人真能赌赢？ 一旦猜错，要么错过 ...