社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 " 内卷式 " 餐饮外卖竞争拉低社零表现，暑期出 行市场有望保持高景气 前两交易周（2025.7.7-2025.7.18）社会服务板块上涨 3.18%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 9。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.26pct。当前餐饮 市场外卖平台补贴"内卷式"竞争已对 6 月餐饮社零造成一定负面影响， "内卷式"竞争尚待缓解。此外，暑期文旅出行市场有望保持高景气度运 行，相关产业链企业经营情况值得期待，我们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 双周要闻 投资建议 入境免签政策作用显著，暑期文旅出行市场有望保持高景气度运行。我 们建议关注后续业绩增长确定性强的出行链及产业相关公司：黄山旅 游、丽江股份、宋城演艺、岭南控股、众信旅游、中青旅、海昌海洋公 园、天目湖、长白山等；受益于商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连 锁酒店品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒店、首旅酒店等；受益于促就业政策推动 的科锐国际；跨境游市场恢复有望推动机场免税的恢复和市内免税新政 加速推出，建议关注中国中免、王府井 ...

7月12日开始，东营的星级酒店纷纷开始出摊了。 几乎同一时间，东营区新区的一家高档酒店也将菜品端上了街头。而当天清晨的安兴早市，东营宾馆的摊位前，现场制作、2元一根的国 宴油条也吸引了市民大排长队。 外摆第四天酒店营业额超4万元 7月初，郑州一家五星级酒店外摆一天收入3万元的消息引发热议。据媒体报道，这家酒店的总经理直言，之所以外摆是因为酒店传统业 务面临经营压力，住宿餐饮达不到预期，所以需要拓展新业务弥补收入。 经营压力同样悬在其他地区的酒店头上，特别是以商务宴请为主的高端酒店，在这一轮餐饮消费转型的过程中体会尤为深刻。既然有同 业先行者摸索出了一条看起来可行的路子，自己就没有理由不去尝试一下。"不试就活不了，试一试说不定就活下来了。抱着这种想法， 我们酒店内部论证之后确定了时间就出摊了。"蓝海御华酒店总经理司伟红告诉记者。 7月12日第一天外摆，蓝海御华准备的菜品售罄，营业额5千余元。司伟红见识过酒店行业的辉煌，5千元放在当时不算什么，但这让她在 第一天收摊后的夜里激动地没睡好觉。第二天，营业额超过了1万元。第三天，营业额超过了2万元。 下午五点，东营胶州路南头，蓝海御华酒店东门外的绿道上，新鲜出锅的各式 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced a "anti-involution" theme rally, with sectors such as steel, polysilicon, and glass seeing significant growth. The "anti-involution" theme is expected to become one of the main investment lines in the near future as it spreads across various industries [1] - Securities firms have shown considerable interest in the "anti-involution" theme, with dozens of firms publishing over a hundred reports and articles related to it since July. The most covered industries include building materials, steel, photovoltaics, and coal [1] - Analysts suggest that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, improving the net asset return rates in related industries, which would be a significant benefit for the stock market [1] Group 2 - "Expectation management" is the primary method of the current "anti-involution" policy. Traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel have largely cleared their outdated production capacity, and the concentration of industries has significantly increased [2] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy may vary by industry. Some sectors, such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, still have growth potential, making direct capacity clearance less likely, while traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and low product prices may see more significant effects on profitability [2] - A report from Huachuang Securities identified potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" measures, with coal mining, coke, and ordinary steel being the most frequently mentioned. Other industries like passenger vehicles and wind power equipment were also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the innovative approach of the Weihai Baina Ruijin Hotel, which has introduced a street-side food stall to offer its signature dishes and local delicacies, making high-end dining more accessible to the public [1][3]. Group 1: Business Strategy - The "street-side takeaway" initiative is a strategic response to changing consumer demands and market conditions, aiming to bring quality dining services closer to everyday consumers [3]. - The hotel offers a diverse menu with over 60 items, including both traditional signature dishes and specially designed affordable options, ensuring a wide appeal [3][7]. - The hotel has implemented a dynamic menu adjustment system based on sales performance, allowing for the removal of underperforming items and the introduction of popular new dishes [3]. Group 2: Customer Engagement - The hotel has established a WeChat pre-order service to streamline the purchasing process, reducing wait times for customers [5]. - The initiative has successfully attracted customers to the hotel, with many who tried the street food opting to experience the hotel's full dining services [7]. - The hotel plans to enhance brand recognition by customizing staff uniforms and improving the stall's branding, while maintaining a balance between casual street food and quality service [7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The trend of hotels engaging in street-side food sales is gaining traction in Weihai, with other star-rated hotels also adopting similar strategies to connect with local consumers [7]. - This approach not only provides affordable dining options for the public but also creates new revenue streams for the hotel industry [7].

Group 1 - The current market is transitioning from a stock market to an incremental market, with A-shares experiencing high volatility in certain sectors while manufacturing sectors remain undervalued [1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is compared to the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will help stimulate low-performing sectors in the context of increased capital inflow [1] - The valuation gap in Hong Kong stocks is becoming apparent, with insurance funds likely to expand their investment scope, indicating a favorable time to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to anchor the basic expectations of the midstream manufacturing sector, with short-term investment opportunities becoming more apparent [2] - The passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to enhance fiscal stimulus, reducing the risk of a deep recession and improving visibility for China's supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [2] - The market has already begun to reflect a "bull market atmosphere," with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels, enhancing risk appetite and spreading profit-making effects [2] Group 3 - A-share market performance has been strong, driven by the upward trend in U.S. stocks and the positive impact of technology leaders reaching new highs [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate domestic price pressures, with the upcoming earnings season providing a favorable environment for stocks with positive earnings forecasts [3] - The overall earnings improvement rate for A-shares is higher than the same period last year, indicating structural opportunities in high-growth TMT sectors and competitive midstream manufacturing [3] Group 4 - The "transformation bull market" is gaining momentum, driven by a systematic reduction in market discount rates and a favorable shift in economic structure [4] - The willingness of investors to accept risk is increasing, suggesting that the market may consolidate before making new highs [4] - Short-term focus should be on the "anti-involution" theme, with a rotation towards growth sectors continuing [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: AI technology breakthroughs, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued assets [5] - The recovery cycle in consumer stocks is supported by low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, indicating potential opportunities in the sector [5] Group 6 - The capital return in A-shares is expected to stabilize and recover due to the "anti-involution" policy and the cessation of debt contraction [6] - The combination of domestic manufacturing recovery and overseas capital return will enhance the attractiveness of A-shares compared to other markets [6] - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic and international trends [6] Group 7 - The current market conditions resemble those of 2014, with a significant disconnect between market performance and earnings [7] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a positive signal, although its impact may be weaker than previous real estate policy shifts [7] - The market is expected to experience a similar trend to the second half of 2014, but tactical breakthroughs may not be smooth [7] Group 8 - The A-share index has recently surpassed 3500 points, with financial sectors and technology themes driving market momentum [8] - The market's valuation has recovered from the bottom, indicating that further gains will require increased trading volume [8] - Structural opportunities are abundant, with a focus on stable dividend assets, resource products, and new technology sectors [8] Group 9 - The core drivers of the current market breakthrough include rising policy expectations, the "anti-involution" investment theme, and improved trading activity [9] - July is viewed as a favorable window for investment, with a focus on TMT, non-bank financials, and military sectors [9] - The AI computing sector's performance is closely tied to the strong results of benchmark U.S. stocks, influencing A-share valuations [9] Group 10 - The market is in a new bullish phase, with investor sentiment improving and incremental capital entering the market [10] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate income stagnation, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [10] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors related to the "anti-involution" theme, stable currencies, and sectors with positive earnings forecasts [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current strong resonance between Chinese and American stock markets reflects optimistic expectations for future corporate capital returns, with A-shares stabilizing from historical lows and U.S. stocks maintaining high ROE levels [1][2] - The three main catalysts for stabilizing and recovering capital returns in A-shares are: (1) anti-involution leading to stabilization in industries previously constrained by excessive capital expansion, (2) overseas manufacturing demand exceeding service sector demand, and (3) the end of debt contraction cycles [2][3] - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices are ahead of ROE, which aligns with historical bottoming characteristics, and while the absolute level of PB is not extreme, the low absolute level of ROE affects the elasticity and pace of PB recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The future state of capital returns is expected to shift, with domestic capital returns stabilizing and overseas capital returns potentially declining due to the combination of anti-involution, cessation of debt contraction, and the development of overseas manufacturing [4][5] - The relative advantage of the "barbell strategy" may diminish as ROE gradually recovers, with traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, and utilities showing a higher proportion of low PB stocks compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as exploring opportunities in new consumption sectors like hospitality and retail [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The summer peak season is commencing, with the Ministry of Culture and Tourism organizing the 2025 National Summer Cultural and Tourism Consumption Season, which will feature over 43,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities and distribute over 570 million yuan in consumption subsidies [30][18]. - The consumer services sector index has risen by 2.24% from June 27 to July 10, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by approximately 0.62 percentage points [7][30]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with the tourism sector recovering while the hotel and catering sector continues to decline [8][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services industry index increased by 2.24%, ranking sixteenth among all CITIC first-level industry indices, and outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 0.62 percentage points [7]. - Sub-sector performance varied, with the comprehensive service, tourism, hotel catering, and education sectors showing respective changes of 5.66%, 0.51%, -0.65%, and 5.91% [8]. - A total of 35 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being Dou Shen Education, Fang Zhi Technology, Caesar Travel, Miao Exhibition, and Bo Rui Communication, with increases of 15.75%, 12.43%, 12.31%, 10.35%, and 8.11% respectively [10]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the consumer services industry is approximately 31.12 times, slightly up from the previous period but still below the average valuation of 49.30 times since 2016 [14]. Industry News - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism will host over 43,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities during the summer season, with various promotional measures including consumption vouchers and discounts [18]. - The Sichuan government is supporting qualified cultural and tourism enterprises to go public, aiming to strengthen key tourism businesses [19]. - The Ministry will intensify monitoring of package tourism products related to family travel, study tours, and summer vacation, focusing on illegal practices [20][22]. Company Announcements - Notable companies to watch include Jin Jiang Hotel, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Tianmu Lake, Jiuhua Tourism, Zhongxin Tourism, and Songcheng Performing Arts, with recommendations based on their potential benefits from the summer peak season [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of five-star hotels setting up street stalls reflects a shift in the hospitality industry, aiming to adapt to market changes and consumer preferences while providing high-quality food at accessible prices [4][6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - In May, China's national catering revenue reached 457.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, indicating a growing market for food services [2]. - The trend of "night economy" and "outdoor stalls" is expected to inject new momentum into service consumption as summer approaches [2][7]. - From January to May, national catering revenue totaled 2.28 trillion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, aligning with the growth of retail sales [7]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - Consumers appreciate the opportunity to enjoy five-star hotel cuisine at affordable prices, with one customer noting the value of tasting high-quality food for a modest cost [4][5]. - The outdoor stalls have attracted significant foot traffic, with one hotel reporting a single-day revenue exceeding 80,000 yuan [4]. Group 3: Business Strategy - The initiative to set up outdoor stalls is a response to underperformance in traditional lodging and high-end dining, prompting hotels to explore new revenue streams [4][6]. - Hotels are maintaining high standards while adapting to a more casual dining format, ensuring that food is freshly prepared and meets quality expectations [6][8]. - The strategy aims to create a "five-star street stall" experience, reflecting a shift from prestige to profitability in the hospitality sector [8]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - The trend of five-star hotels operating street stalls is not isolated to one location, as similar initiatives are observed across various cities in China [6]. - The flexibility in business models is seen as essential for survival in a competitive market, with hotels exploring new channels to meet consumer demand [8].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a hot topic in the stock and commodity markets, with various industries responding and institutions releasing related research reports [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may develop in three phases: initial expectations catalyzed by policy, followed by rising prices of resource products, and finally, a prolonged period of high prices for these resources [1] - CITIC Securities identifies three key differences between the current "anti-involution" and the supply-side reform of 2015-2016, including broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream enterprises, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging industries [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Fund focuses on two major industrial issues: structural contradictions in capacity and disruptions to fair competition, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, where prices have dropped significantly [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" policy will have a more pronounced effect on correcting vicious competition and benefiting emerging industries, particularly in sectors with high state-owned enterprise representation [2] - Specific sectors to watch include the photovoltaic industry chain, traditional industries facing overcapacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities identifies potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" policy based on factors like state-owned enterprise representation, industry concentration, price elasticity, taxation, and employment [3] - Industries likely to benefit include coal mining, coke, ordinary steel, energy metals, glass fiber, steel raw materials, precious metals, and the hospitality sector [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, aiming to address the issue of "involution" in market competition [2][8] - Historical cases show that supply-side clearance driven by policy typically begins with market expectations, while the main upward trend requires improvements in industry structure to support cash flow and balance sheet recovery [8][10] - The current round of overcapacity is primarily concentrated in mid- and downstream industries, unlike the previous cycle which was focused on upstream resource sectors [9][10] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on two main strategies: industries that have experienced prolonged supply-side clearance and are likely to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, and industries that may benefit from policy-driven accelerated clearance [10][11] - For natural clearance, the report recommends monitoring demand-side indicators for upstream industries and supply-side indicators for mid- and downstream sectors, highlighting sectors such as agricultural chemicals, general machinery, pharmaceuticals, and components [10] - For policy-driven clearance, attention should be given to industries mentioned in recent policies aimed at addressing "involution," including photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automobiles, and cement [10][17]