上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚表示，消费贷余额增长既有政策催化的短期因素，更是消费需求升级的长期趋势体现。他分析称，从短期看， 2025年财政贴息、额度上限提高等政策组合拳确实起到了立竿见影的刺激作用，特别是在以旧换新、家装等领域释放了大量潜在需求。但从深层逻辑看，中 等收入群体扩容、消费观念迭代、场景金融渗透率提升才是持续增长的底层支撑。 客群与利率分化 从县域市场的家电焕新，到新市民的应急周转，消费贷正以更普惠的姿态渗透日常生活。2025年三季度末，我国不含个人住房贷款的消费性贷款余额已达 21.29万亿元。然而，在规模扩张的背后，消费贷市场也曾一度深陷"价格战"漩涡，"以贷还贷"等问题涌现。如今，随着助贷新规落地，消费贷行业粗放扩 表的时代正式落幕。站在深耕生态、提质增效的关键节点，银行与消金机构如何在合规框架内持续释放普惠价值、构建新增长极，成为行业亟待解答的命 题。 规模扩容 当房贷这一零售"引擎"增速放缓，消费贷曾在资产荒与利率下行的围猎中，被金融机构视作填补利润缺口的"缓冲器"。从利率"内卷"至"2"字头掀起规模狂 欢，到监管引导下利率重回"3"字头，再到提额度、延期限与场景深耕成为新方 ...

Core Insights - The consumer loan market in China has reached a balance of 21.29 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [3][4] - The era of aggressive expansion in consumer loans is over, with a shift towards compliance and quality improvement in the industry [1][7] - Banks and licensed consumer finance institutions are now focusing on sustainable growth within regulatory frameworks, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to risk and expansion [8] Market Expansion - Consumer loans have been viewed as a buffer for banks amid slowing mortgage growth, with a notable increase in loan balances driven by government policies and financial institutions adjusting their business structures [3][4] - The total consumer loan balance for 41 A-share listed banks reached approximately 6.80 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 5.37% increase from the previous year [4] - Major banks like China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank have significant consumer loan balances, indicating a competitive landscape among financial institutions [4] Customer Segmentation and Rate Differentiation - The consumer loan market is characterized by a "dislocated competition" where banks and licensed consumer finance institutions target different customer segments and pricing strategies [5][6] - Banks typically offer lower interest rates (3%-5%) due to their low-cost funding advantages, focusing on high-quality borrowers [5][6] - Licensed consumer finance institutions cater to underserved markets, often charging higher rates (4%-24%) to cover risk costs while providing flexible loan options [5][6] Regulatory Environment - The adjustment of consumer loan interest rates has been a long-term trend, with a recent regulatory push to maintain rates around 3% to prevent financial arbitrage [7] - New regulations effective from October 1, 2025, set a cap on comprehensive financing costs at 24%, aiming to guide consumer loan rates into a compliant downward trajectory [7] Sustainable Development Challenges - The industry faces three core challenges for sustainable development: asset quality management, deepening customer value, and fulfilling social responsibilities [8] - Financial institutions are encouraged to leverage technology for better consumer demand analysis and to reduce costs, thereby enhancing the precision of credit approvals [8] - Banks should focus on building ecosystem capabilities and improving organizational agility, while consumer finance institutions need to strengthen their technological capabilities and explore new growth models [8]