Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to run with a slight upward trend [3] Core Viewpoints - In September, the apple futures generally showed a strong performance, while the jujube prices first declined and then rebounded, but overall there was a drop [6] - The downstream consumption is slowly recovering, and the consumer spending ability is steadily increasing, but the price level is under relatively large pressure [11][13][14] - The apple market is in the game stage of the new season's listing, and the futures price is expected to remain within a certain range [43] - The jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the continuous reduction of spot inventory [59] Summary by Directory 1. 9 - Month Fresh Fruit Price Trend - In September, apple futures generally ran strongly, attempting to break through the pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton; jujube prices first declined and then rebounded, but overall there was a drop [6] 2. Macro - Analysis: Slow Improvement in Consumption - **Downstream Consumption**: In August 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods were 3,966.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The real growth after deducting price factors was 4.1%. From January to August, the cumulative total was 32,390.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The retail sales of goods were 3,517.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the catering revenue was 449.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [13] - **Price Level**: In August 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.9% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the price of fresh fruits changed from a 2.8% increase in July to a 3.7% decrease [16] - **Fruit Prices**: As of the 38th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg compared with the 37th week. Among them, the prices of watermelon and pineapple increased, while those of banana, Kyoho grape, Ya pear, and Fuji apple decreased [18] 3. Apple Price Outlook: Game of Listing Unfolds - **Wholesale Market Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.78 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous month; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous month. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been fluctuating [24] - **Main Apple - Producing Areas**: In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples vary, and the early - maturing varieties are being traded. In Shaanxi, the early - maturing Fuji trading is in the later stage, and some new varieties are on the market [30] - **Cold Storage Situation**: As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 163,200 tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory turnover in Shandong has slowed down [32] - **Sales Area Market**: In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the market has slightly increased. The market is mainly stocked with Fuji apples, and the overall sales are average [36] - **Apple Storage Profit**: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [39] - **Market Outlook**: The supply of early - maturing apples has increased recently, and the price has declined, weakening the support for futures prices. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's realization. The futures price is expected to remain within a certain range [43] 4. Jujube Outlook: High - Level Price Fluctuation - **Spot Price**: The prices of different grades of jujubes in Hebei, Henan, and Guangzhou markets vary according to origin and quality [49] - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 84.80%. The inventory has slightly decreased [51] - **Sales Area Market Profit**: The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing area was 5.33 yuan/kg (2024 production season), and the gross profit in the Hebei sales area was 2.36 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [55] - **Market Outlook**: Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the spot price has seasonally rebounded. The jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [59]