消费饱和点

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中国刺激消费应该层次多样
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 11:33
Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]