Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive market reaction following the U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which has been a significant factor affecting liquidity in the market [1][3]. Market Reaction - Major markets responded positively to the news, with U.S. stock index futures rising across the board, European stock index futures also showing positive movement, and the Asia-Pacific markets opening strongly, with the South Korean index up over 2% and the Japanese index rising nearly 1% [6][1]. - Bitcoin surged past $106,000 and Ethereum exceeded $3,600, indicating a strong rebound in the cryptocurrency market [1][8]. Government Shutdown Details - The Senate's agreement includes funding for the government until January 30 of the following year and plans to vote on the Affordable Care Act in December. This agreement aims to prevent future shutdowns and ensures funding for food assistance programs until the fiscal year 2026 [3][4]. - The agreement does not extend the enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, a key demand from the Democrats, but it allows for a separate vote on this issue later [4]. Economic Impact - The government shutdown has reached a historical high of 40 days, significantly impacting liquidity and economic data. The delay in salary payments to federal employees has weakened consumer spending, which constitutes 80% of overall expenditure [9]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion due to ongoing financing without spending, contributing to tighter liquidity in the money market [9]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped, with the preliminary November index falling to 50.3, indicating ongoing concerns about employment and inflation [9].

Group 1: Consumption Rate Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes a significant increase in the household consumption rate, targeting an increase of at least 5-7 percentage points over the next five years[3] - By 2035, China's per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of moderately developed countries, with a potential increase of approximately 14 percentage points in household consumption rate compared to the average of 54% in major developed economies[3] Group 2: Pathways to Increase Consumption - Two main pathways to enhance the consumption rate are stimulating willingness and supporting capability, with the former reflecting consumer willingness and the latter reflecting income capability[4] - Historical evidence suggests that enhancing consumer willingness has been more effective in driving consumption rate improvements compared to merely increasing income capability[4] Group 3: Current Consumption Trends - Currently, China's household consumption rate is below 40%, while major developed economies have rates exceeding 50%, indicating a significant gap[5] - Consumer willingness in China is approximately 65%, compared to over 90% in major developed countries, highlighting a critical constraint on consumption rate improvement[5] Group 4: Potential for Consumption Rate Increase - In an extreme scenario where China's consumption propensity rises to 90%, the consumption rate could potentially reach 55%, indicating a remaining potential increase of about 15 percentage points[6] - If consumer willingness increases by 10% to around 75%, the consumption rate could rise by 5 percentage points to approximately 45%[7]

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that enhance both consumption capacity and willingness [10][19]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Consumption - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity and consumption willingness. Consumption capacity is primarily affected by income, assets, and debt, while consumption willingness is influenced by economic expectations, social security systems, and available time for consumption [7][10]. - The current debt pressure on residents is significant, with the ratio of debt repayment to disposable income at 12.4% in Q3 2024, higher than in some developed economies [7]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines a comprehensive approach to enhance consumption through income increases, reduced burdens, high-quality supply, and improved consumption environments, with 30 key tasks across eight areas [10][19]. - The government plans to increase public consumption significantly, as a 1% increase in public consumption can lead to a 0.4% rise in private consumption over the long term [13][19]. Group 3: Targeted Support for Specific Groups - The plan focuses on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, with measures including employment support and minimum wage adjustments [11][20]. - There is a specific emphasis on providing living allowances for recent graduates who have not yet found employment, recognizing their high marginal propensity to consume [21]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Projections - In 2024, the growth rate of social retail sales is projected to be only 3.5%, with expectations to increase to over 5% due to enhanced fiscal spending [3][19]. - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP in 2023, which is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [6][19]. Group 5: Financial Support Mechanisms - The plan introduces fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, marking a shift in focus from corporate to individual support, which could stimulate consumer spending [16][22]. - The government aims to balance "old-for-new" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups to ensure equitable access to consumption incentives [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant potential for consumption growth in China, while also acknowledging the challenges in boosting consumer spending due to various factors affecting both consumption capacity and willingness [1][4]. Summary by Sections Consumption Capacity and Willingness - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity (income, assets, and debt) and consumption willingness (economic expectations, social security, and available time) [1][4]. - Increasing the income and welfare levels of low- and middle-income individuals is crucial for enhancing consumption capacity [1][4]. Policy Framework - The "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" aims to enhance consumption capacity through income growth and reduced burdens, create effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve consumption willingness by optimizing the consumption environment [1][5]. - The plan includes eight areas with 30 key tasks, addressing various factors that suppress consumption [1][5]. Economic Stability and Consumption - The article outlines five key actions to solidify consumption's role in stabilizing the economy, including increasing public consumption investment, balancing "trade-in" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups, and supporting income growth for low-income individuals [1][4]. - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth is projected to be 1.5 percentage points in 2024, highlighting the need for domestic demand, particularly consumption, to rise [1][4]. Global Context and Consumption Potential - Globally, final consumption accounts for over 70% of GDP, with China's consumption share at 55.6%, indicating substantial room for improvement [2][3]. - The government prioritizes boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency as key tasks for 2025 [2][4]. Specific Measures for Consumption Boost - The plan includes measures to enhance income distribution, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, through employment support and wage growth initiatives [6][9]. - It also emphasizes the importance of public consumption, with a recommendation to increase fiscal spending on public services to support private consumption [9][14]. Focus on Major and Service Consumption - The article highlights the need for policies supporting both major consumption (e.g., automobiles, appliances) and service consumption, which currently lags behind developed economies [10][11]. - The plan includes specific actions to promote service consumption, such as improving service supply and attracting foreign investment [10][11]. Financial Support and Monitoring - The introduction of fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans is a notable aspect of the plan, aimed at stimulating consumer spending [12][13]. - Monitoring the use of funds from consumption loans is essential to ensure they are used appropriately and to mitigate financial risks [17]. Long-term Economic Goals - The article stresses the importance of increasing the share of middle-income households in total income distribution to enhance consumption, projecting significant potential for consumption growth if successful [18][19]. - Achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2024 will require a concerted effort to boost consumption, especially in light of declining export contributions [18][19].

□ 长期来看，消费还有很大提升空间，但也要客观看待提振消费的难度。影响消费的因素分为消 费能力和消费意愿两大类：影响消费能力的因素主要有收入、资产和债务；影响消费意愿的因素 包括对经济和未来收入的预期、社会保障体系完善程度，以及是否有消费时间等。其中消费能力 是能否提振消费的关键因素，故要想方设法增加中低收入者（边际消费倾向强）的收入和福利水 平 □ 《提振消费专项行动方案》总的政策思路是以增收减负提升消费能力，以高质量供给创造有效 需求，以优化消费环境增强消费意愿，并部署八方面30项重点任务。前七部分部署具体实施的七 大行动，第八部分进一步强调了完善投资、财政、信贷、统计等各项支持政策。文件覆盖面非常 广，涵盖了如何应对各类压制消费的因素 □ 考虑到消费对于经济平稳运行的重要性，接下来可做好五方面工作，以进一步夯实消费在稳经 济中的基石作用：一是更大力度增加财政对公共消费的投入；二是平衡好"以旧换新"和对特定群 体的现金补助；三是切实做好中低收入人群的收入合理增长工作；四是针对已毕业但尚未找到工 作的大中专毕业生，给予适当的生活补助；五是对个人消费贷款财政贴息的同时，加强资金用途 的监测 □ 当前，世界百年 ...