Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The main corn 2601 contract has seen a rare continuous sharp rise and formed a squeeze market, with a premium over the far - month 2605 contract. The spot price has risen steadily but with a small increase, and the corn basis has continued to weaken. The main starch 2601 contract has followed the corn's continuous rebound, and its basis has weakened in an oscillating manner. The new grain sales are accelerating, the market's grain - grabbing and stockpiling sentiment is rising, but the main futures price of the 2601 contract has shown an irrational rise. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods on dips and moderately increase safety reserves, and traders buy low and sell high. Do not chase the high of the 2601 contract, and pay attention to the low - price opportunities of the 2605 contract [4][7] Group 3: Summary of Key Factors Supply - side Factors - **Grain - grabbing and hoarding in the Northeast**: Due to the serious differentiation of grain quality in North China, the damaged corn offsets the impact of the national corn production increase. Industrial players go to the Northeast to stockpile grain actively. The cold weather makes corn easy to store, and farmers are reluctant to sell, expecting price increases. As of December 4th, the national grain sales progress was 36%, 5% faster than the same period last year, with the Northeast region being 34%, 9% faster [4] - **Port inventory and downstream demand**: As of November 28th, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 136900 tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 53500 tons, a decline from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 18100 tons and continued to decline, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 33600 tons, a slight increase. Downstream deep - processing procurement has slowed down, while feed enterprises are still increasing their inventory. As of December 5th, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 275400 tons, a slight increase, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 28.67 days and continued to rise, but still lower than the same period in previous years [4] - **Grain substitution and imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed to around 177, and substitution is still not feasible. In October, domestic corn imports rebounded significantly, with 35900 tons imported, a five - fold increase from the previous month and a 114.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 129200 tons, a 90.2% decrease year - on - year. Imports of barley and other grains decreased month - on - month. If the domestic corn supply is tight in the later stage, there may be a possibility of expanding and resuming imports [5] - **Foreign market situation**: The US corn in the external market has continued to rebound in an oscillating manner, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report [5] Demand - side Factors - **Feed demand**: Pig prices are low, and pig farming is suffering large losses. As of December 5th, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was -$259.39 per pig, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was -$167.69 per pig, both with increasing losses. The adjustment of the sow inventory is slow. In September, the national sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30000 from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. The sow inventory of large - scale farms increased in October. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to decrease. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen, egg - laying hen farming has continued to lose money, chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old hens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens in production decreased slightly. Feed demand is relatively strong. In October, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [6] - **Deep - processing demand**: The processing profits of starch processing enterprises have been differentiated, and the operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. As of December 5th, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 61.66%, a month - on - month increase. Starch inventory remains at a high level and continues to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises are still in a loss, but the operating rate is at a high level of 70.28%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises is insufficient, while the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6]