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玉米淀粉日报-20250723
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 13:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting is finished, and the US corn price is in a weak state. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price continues to decline. The weather factor is likely to be a topic for speculation later. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the import price from Brazil in August at 2007 yuan [3]. - In China, the northern port's flat - price of corn is stable. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable, while the supply in North China is tightening, and the corn spot price is rebounding. The demand from the domestic breeding industry is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price will be relatively stable in the short - term. The supply of North China corn is expected to be tight in August, with strong support at around 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [3][5]. - The price of starch is mainly determined by the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 09 starch contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Sections Data Section - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest, and open interest change rates of multiple corn and corn starch futures contracts are presented. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2247, with a price increase of 1 and a price change rate of 0.04%, and the trading volume has increased by 61.28% [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices and price changes of corn and starch in different regions (such as Qinggang, Jiajibio, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc.) are provided, as well as the basis and spread data between different contracts [2]. Market Judgment Section - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by planting progress, tariff policies, and potential weather speculation. In the Chinese market, the northern port's price is stable, the Northeast is stable, North China is strengthening, and the supply - demand relationship is complex. The import corn auction is also influencing the market. The 09 corn contract has bottomed out and rebounded today, with a strong basis [3][5][7]. - **Starch**: The price of starch is related to corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has increased this week. The 09 starch contract is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term due to factors such as the relatively stable North China corn price and the tight supply in the future [6]. Trading Strategy Section - **Unilateral Strategy**: The domestic 09 corn contract will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Close the position of buying spot and shorting 09 corn, and wait and see the spread between 09 corn and starch [8]. Corn Option Section - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot can close the position of selling corn call options, or short - term investors can try to accumulate short positions when the price rises [11]. Related Attachments Section - Multiple charts are provided, including the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 09 contract [12][14][18].