近日，国际贵金属市场波动加大，12月29日，以白银为首的贵金属全线重挫，截至当天收盘，COMEX 黄金期货大跌4.45%，COMEX白银期货暴跌7.2%，现货黄金大跌超4%，现货白银暴跌超9%，现货钯金 暴跌超15%，现货铂金暴跌超14%。 （原标题：突发暴跌！全线跳水） 贵金属市场全线跳水。 12月31日午间，国际贵金属市场全线走低。现货白银、COMEX白银、现货铂金、现货钯金、NYMEX 铂、NYMEX钯等多个品种大幅下跌。 此外，黄金现货走低转跌，COMEX黄金跌幅加大。 华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势 加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不建议普通投资者贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可 能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理并提前设置好止损。白银中长线 投资者可通过买入看跌期权从而在价格回调期间保护自己的期货多头头寸。 综合自：Wind、证券时报此前报道 责编：万健祎 校对：杨舒欣 昨日（12月30日），贵金属市场普遍反弹，COMEX黄金期货涨0.2%；现货黄金涨0.17%；COMEX白银 期货涨7.88% ...

贵金属市场全线跳水。 昨日（12月30日），贵金属市场普遍反弹，COMEX黄金期货涨0.2%；现货黄金涨0.17%；COMEX白银期货涨7.88%；现货白银涨5.66%； NYMEX铂期货收涨4%。 此外，黄金现货走低转跌，COMEX黄金跌幅加大。 近日，国际贵金属市场波动加大，12月29日，以白银为首的贵金属全线重挫，截至当天收盘，COMEX黄金期货大跌4.45%，COMEX白银期 货暴跌7.2%，现货黄金大跌超4%，现货白银暴跌超9%，现货钯金暴跌超15%，现货铂金暴跌超14%。 12月31日午间，国际贵金属市场全线走低。现货白银、COMEX白银、现货铂金、现货钯金、NYMEX铂、NYMEX钯等多个品种大幅下 跌。 对于贵金属市场后市，瑞银警告称，当前贵金属价格的迅速上涨，很大程度是由于市场流动性不足——这意味着很可能快速回落。 华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不 建议普通投资者贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理 并提前设置好止损。白银中长线 ...

贵金属市场全线跳水。 12月31日午间，国际贵金属市场全线走低。现货白银、COMEX白银、现货铂金、现货钯金、NYMEX铂、NYMEX钯等多个品种大幅下 跌。 此外，黄金现货走低转跌，COMEX黄金跌幅加大。 昨日（12月30日），贵金属市场普遍反弹，COMEX黄金期货涨0.2%；现货黄金涨0.17%；COMEX白银期货涨7.88%；现货白银涨5.66%； NYMEX铂期货收涨4%。 对于贵金属市场后市，瑞银警告称，当前贵金属价格的迅速上涨，很大程度是由于市场流动性不足——这意味着很可能快速回落。 凯投宏观分析师则在报告中写道："贵金属价格已经上涨到我们认为难以用基本面解释的水平。"他们预计，白银价格到明年年底可能回落 至约42美元/盎司。 华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不 建议普通投资者贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理 并提前设置好止损。白银中长线投资者可通过买入看跌期权从而在价格回调期间保护自己的期货多头头寸。 （文章来源：证券时报） 近 ...

白银大跳水。 12月29日，白银在短暂冲高后快速跳水，一度跌超6%，截至发稿，伦敦银现跌5.67%，而当日早间，伦敦银现最高涨超6%，创出历史新 高。 此外，COMEX白银跌约4%，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金跌近2%，现货钯金跌近12%，NYMEX钯跌超10%，现货铂金跌近6%，NYMEX铂跌 超6%。 据世界白银协会发布的最新数据，2025年全球白银市场的供需缺口预计超1亿盎司，白银市场连续第五年处于供应短缺状态。白银实物投资 需求方面，截至2025年12月26日，全球最大的白银ETF—SLV持仓量为1.64万吨，周环比上涨2%。库存方面，LBMA库存降至历史低位， 截至11月约有27000吨的白银库存，不过大多是和ETF挂钩的白银实物，无法自由流通，白银可流通库存偏紧。 数据显示，目前镍、钯金等品种的投机度百分位已高企，均超过65%。"这意味着市场情绪进入了极其敏感的区间，稍有风吹草动就会引发 连锁反应。"顾冯达称。 综合自：Wind行情、e公司、券商中国等 责编：李丹 校对：高源 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with the London spot silver price exceeding $66 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3.5% as of December 17, and a total increase of over 32% since November 24 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices has led to a decline in the gold-silver ratio, reaching a four-year low [2] - Key drivers for silver's stronger performance compared to gold include macro liquidity easing, intensified supply-demand imbalances, and increased investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2023 and expectations for further cuts in 2026 have contributed to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16%, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market has experienced structural shortages for several years, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI growing rapidly, while mineral supply remains constrained [2] - It is projected that the silver market will face a shortfall of 3,660 tons by 2025, with over 50% of demand driven by industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by the fact that 72% of mined silver is sourced from copper, lead, and zinc by-products [2] Group 3: Market Behavior and Risks - The COMEX futures market is currently facing significant physical delivery demands, leading to a "short squeeze" that amplifies price increases [3] - Analysts caution about potential short-term pullback risks due to the rapid price increase, with concerns that the market may enter an overbought territory [3] - The RSI indicator for silver is above 85, indicating severe overbought conditions, and the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX silver have reached a record high since 2020, suggesting accumulated profit-taking pressure [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with the London spot silver price exceeding $66 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3.5% as of December 17. The price has risen more than 32% since hitting a low on November 24, driven by macroeconomic liquidity, supply-demand imbalances, and strong investment demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of December 17, the London spot silver price reached a high of $66.51 per ounce, reflecting a robust upward trend in the past two months [1]. - The gold-silver ratio has fallen to a four-year low due to the significant rise in silver prices [1]. - The global silver market has experienced structural shortages for five consecutive years, with an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons by 2025, driven by industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, has surged, with a 17% annual increase in installed capacity driving silver paste demand [2]. - The supply of silver is constrained, with 72% of mined silver coming from copper, lead, and zinc by-products, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2]. - High leasing rates for London silver and the return of inventories to European markets have contributed to upward price pressure [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts caution about potential short-term price corrections due to overbought conditions, with the RSI indicator for silver exceeding 85, indicating severe overbought status [3]. - The COMEX silver market is facing significant physical delivery demands, leading to a "short squeeze" scenario that amplifies price increases [2][3]. - There is a growing concern that high prices may lead to reduced industrial demand, and any unexpected monetary policy changes, such as interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, could impact global liquidity and market dynamics [3].

宋蒋圳预测，这种情绪性行情可能在2026年一季度后趋向平稳，但短期内在60美元基础上仍有上涨动 能，回调后可能以50-60美元为新平台。 此外，供需基本面的结构性缺口也为银价上涨提供了坚实支撑。东兴证券研报显示，2024年全球白银需 求达36207吨，其中工业需求占比58.5%，且2019-2024年间工业用银需求年复合增速达5.4%，贡献了同 期白银需求总增长量的98%。而供应端则呈现刚性特征，其预测，2024-2027年间全球白银供应量年复 合增速或仅1.2%，预计2025-2027年供需缺口将从4498吨逐步放大至6791吨。 兴业证券也指出，白银连续5年出现供需缺口，显性库存处于历史低位，叠加去美元化趋势，金银长期 中枢上移趋势不变。 （原标题：又创新高！白银年内涨超125%成黑马 机构解读后市） 12月17日，国内外白银市场同步迎来历史性时刻。 在上海期货交易所，沪银期货主力合约盘中价格一 度冲高至每千克15477元，涨幅超过4%，刷新了该合约上市以来的最高纪录。 国际市场中，COMEX白银盘中涨超3%，峰值达65.909美元/盎司，伦敦银现同步走强，最高触及66.005 美元/盎司，二大核心品种均 ...

Core Insights - The silver market has reached a historic moment with significant price increases in both domestic and international markets, with Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures hitting a record high of 15,477 yuan per kilogram, up over 4% [1] - Internationally, COMEX silver surged over 4%, peaking at $66.27 per ounce, while London silver also reached a high of $66.068 per ounce, both marking new highs since their listings and showing year-to-date increases exceeding 125%, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 64% rise [1] Market Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to strong overseas demand for physical silver, which is primarily being stockpiled rather than flowing into industrial use, creating a concentrated squeeze effect [4] - Market sentiment remains bullish, with predictions suggesting that while the emotional trading may stabilize after Q1 2026, there is still upward momentum above $60 in the short term, with potential new price levels between $50 and $60 [4] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - A structural supply-demand gap is providing solid support for rising silver prices, with global silver demand projected to reach 36,207 tons in 2024, of which industrial demand accounts for 58.5% [5] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrial silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is expected to be 5.4%, contributing to 98% of the total increase in silver demand during this period [5] - In contrast, silver supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of only 1.2% from 2024 to 2027, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap, which is expected to widen from 4,498 tons in 2025 to 6,791 tons by 2027 [5] Regulatory Actions - In response to the overheated silver market, regulatory authorities have adjusted trading margins and price limits for silver futures contracts to manage volatility [6] - Recommendations for investors include prioritizing more stable investments like gold or exploring platinum and palladium, while advising caution in the silver market due to increased volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has reached a historic moment with significant price increases in both domestic and international markets, driven by strong demand and speculative sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - On December 17, the main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange peaked at 15,477 yuan per kilogram, marking a rise of over 4% and setting a new record since its listing [1]. - In the international market, COMEX silver rose over 4%, reaching a peak of $66.27 per ounce, while London silver also saw gains, hitting $66.068 per ounce, with both core products achieving over 125% growth year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global silver demand is projected to reach 36,207 tons in 2024, with industrial demand accounting for 58.5%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrial silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is expected to be 5.4%, contributing 98% to the total growth in silver demand during this period [5]. - The supply side is characterized by rigidity, with a forecasted CAGR of only 1.2% for global silver supply from 2024 to 2027. The supply-demand gap is expected to widen from 4,498 tons in 2025 to 6,791 tons by 2027 [5]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Current market sentiment is heavily influenced by strong overseas demand for silver, primarily in stockpiling rather than industrial use, creating a concentrated squeeze-like scenario. This, combined with heightened speculative activity, has contributed to the surge in silver prices [4]. - Short-term predictions suggest that while silver prices may stabilize after Q1 2026, there remains upward momentum above $60, with potential new support levels between $50 and $60 [5]. Regulatory Actions - In response to the overheated silver market, regulatory bodies have adjusted trading margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts to mitigate excessive volatility [6]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest that investors may consider more stable alternatives like gold or explore new products such as platinum and palladium, given the increased volatility in silver prices. It is advised to implement timely profit-taking and stop-loss strategies to manage risks effectively [6].