Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the amount of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stocking, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price and Spread**: JD01 closed at 3210, up 26 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3510, up 17; JD09 closed at 3878, up 3. The 01 - 05 spread was - 300, up 9; the 05 - 09 spread was - 368, up 14; the 09 - 01 spread was 668, down 23 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.45, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.07, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.25, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.33, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of rising and remaining stable [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in different regions also had different changes [2][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices were mixed, with some rising and some stable [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory in November, December, January, and February 2025 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume and Age**: From November 18 - 24, the national culled chicken volume in the main production areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week. The average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of November 21, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week [6]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of November 13, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of November 21, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].