1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In January, the egg market was boosted by the Spring Festival stocking effect, with egg prices rising significantly and a strong divergence between the spot and futures markets. In the short - term, the market was in a state of short - term supply - demand tightness, and the low inventory at each stage supported the spot price. The futures market showed a large discount due to the pessimistic expectation of a sharp decline in post - festival demand. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner. The far - month contracts have the potential for valuation repair [7][8][72] - The recommended operation strategies are to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - In January, the main contract of egg futures switched to JD2603, showing an oscillating trend. The highest price in the month was 3,101 yuan/500 kg, and the lowest was 2,970 yuan/500 kg. As of last Friday, the contract was reported at 3,002 yuan/500 kg, down 1.51% [5][13] 3.1.2 Spot Price - In January, egg prices rose significantly under the boost of the Spring Festival holiday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 yuan/jin (16.23%); the average price in the main selling areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 yuan/jin (14.66%) [7][18] 3.1.3 Basis - As of January 30, the egg basis was 998 yuan/500 kg, at a recent high. The strong performance of the spot market diverged from the futures market [22] 3.1.4 Chicken Chick Price - Driven by the increase in egg prices, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the breeding sector increased significantly in January. The average price of commercial - generation egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.83 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.12% [7][26] 3.1.5 Old Hen Price - In January, the price of old hens oscillated upward, and the breeding sector was reluctant to sell and hold back inventory. The average price of old hens was 4.41 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 yuan/jin (8.09%) [7][31] 3.1.6 Laying Hen Inventory - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The inventory of laying hens was still at a high level in the past five - year average, and the supply pressure was not significantly alleviated [35] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in January was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The new production capacity in January corresponded to the chicks replenished in September last year, and the farmers were cautious in replenishing [35] - **Chicken Chick Sales**: In January, the total sales of chicken chicks were 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [42] - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Affected by the pressure to hold back inventory, the slaughter volume of old hens in January decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points was 2.9007 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, one day earlier than in December [48] - **Old Hen Slaughter by Enterprises**: Driven by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, the overall slaughter volume of the industry increased significantly in January. The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample slaughter enterprises was 10.0792 million, a month - on - month increase of 12.54% [52] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Vehicle Arrivals in Sales Areas**: Affected by Spring Festival stocking, the downstream market stocked up actively. In January, the number of vehicle arrivals in the Beijing market was 360, a decrease of 40 vehicles (10%) compared with December; the number of vehicle arrivals in the Guangdong market was 2,670, an increase of 23 vehicles (0.87%) compared with the previous month [56] - **Egg Sales in Sales Areas**: In January, the total egg sales in the sales areas were 32.19 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 thousand tons (9.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 60.55% [62] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - In January, the breeding cost of egg - laying hens increased slightly, and the loss margin narrowed significantly. The average breeding cost of egg - laying hens was 133.59 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan/jin (0.85%), and the breeding profit was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.46 yuan/jin [66] 3.2.4 Inventory Situation - In January, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of January 30, the production - link inventory was 0.58 days, a decrease of 0.44 days compared with December; the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, a decrease of 0.58 days compared with December [71] 3.3 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Since January, the concentrated release of Spring Festival stocking demand, combined with the concentrated release of cold - storage eggs in December and the month - on - month decline in egg - laying hen production capacity, has led to a short - term supply - demand tightness in the market, and the inventory pressure at each stage has been alleviated. Near the end of the month, the improvement in breeding profits has led to a slowdown in the culling of old hens, and the terminal stocking is coming to an end. However, the low inventory at each stage still supports the spot egg price. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner [8][72] 3.3.2 Operation Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Remain on the sidelines - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines - **Options Trading**: Remain on the sidelines [8][73]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs has been strong, leading to price increases. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption and the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, egg prices are likely to face pressure. Futures far - month contracts may also face pressure [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs trended strongly. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of around 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas, it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The main egg futures contracts also showed strength, with the March contract reaching a maximum of around 3098 [4] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spots is good, and prices are rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. After the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. It is expected that egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs was strong. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The March egg futures contract was strong, mainly affected by pre - festival stocking and rising spot prices. However, considering that the March contract is a post - festival contract, egg prices are usually low at the beginning of the year. Also, the enthusiasm for culling has started to decrease. Although the current in - production inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level, and the market's concerns about future egg prices limited the increase in the futures price [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In January, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 42.81% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 43.38% (at a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 13.81% (at a relatively high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in January changed little and was at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 92.67%. It is expected to gradually recover as the weather gets colder in the future. The hatch volume of laying hen chicks in December changed little month - on - month and decreased by 13.9% year - on - year. The price of chicklings in January was at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market was 3.22 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 yuan per chick. Previously, due to weak egg prices and average peak - season demand, breeding profits were in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased, leading to an increase in the culling volume. According to Zhuochuang data, the culling volume of laying hens in major production areas nationwide in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of January 23 was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week [12][13][15] - Demand side: Near the Spring Festival, egg consumption was good. As of the week of January 23, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas nationwide was 7210 tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week, and at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. From the perspective of catering revenue, in 2025 from January to December, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.5136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the absolute value of catering revenue in December was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [22] - Inventory: As of the week of January 23, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [22] - Cost and breeding profit: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In January, the corn price was 2377 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2619 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.88 yuan per catty of eggs. As of January 23, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.44 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.31 yuan per catty from the previous week. On January 16, the expected breeding profit of laying hens was - 13.63 yuan per hen, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from the previous week [25] - Substitutes: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On January 28, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 133.98. Vegetable prices have risen significantly recently but are at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. This month, the pork price fluctuated with little overall change. As of January 20, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.69 yuan per kilogram. Overall, the low vegetable prices have a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level pork price also has relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [28] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs is good, and prices have risen. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the previous inventory situation has improved, the farmers' enthusiasm for culling has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. The pace of capacity reduction may slow down compared to before, and egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, it is expected that the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [36]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent increase in egg prices is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices, with the approaching Spring Festival leading to a faster overall market sales situation. The current egg production is starting to reduce capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. However, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited as it is a post - Spring Festival contract with weak demand and low egg prices after the Spring Festival [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price Changes**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable today, with some regions showing price increases or remaining unchanged [2][4]. - **Inventory Status**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Slaughter and Sales Volume**: From January 16th to the end of the week, the number of laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of January 16th was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of the week of January 8th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - **Slaughter Chicken Price**: Today, the price of slaughter chickens nationwide increased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. The current reduction in egg production capacity and the approaching Spring Festival are factors contributing to the price increase. However, due to the weak demand for eggs after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Industry and Date - The report focuses on the egg industry [1] - The report date is January 15, 2026 [2] Group 2: Research Team - The agricultural product research team includes researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The prices of egg futures contracts 2602, 2603, and 2605 all declined. The 2602 contract fell -0.94% to 2958, the 2603 contract dropped -0.56% to 3007, and the 2605 contract decreased -0.61% to 3560 [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, also up 0.10 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 02 contract fell 1.32% [7] Operation Suggestions - The 02 and 03 contracts are in the absolute off - season. They will mainly increase the basis in the future. Unless the current price increase in production and sales areas exceeds expectations in intensity and duration, they may oscillate at the bottom [8] - The far - month contracts have potential positive factors due to the possible inflection point in inventory. Pay attention to the restocking situation. If the continuous rise in egg prices weakens the far - month valuation, consider laying out long positions in peak - season contracts such as 05 and operate in a rolling manner [8] Group 4: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.344 billion, a 0.59% month - on - month decrease and a 5.00% year - on - year increase [9] Restocking - In December 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as in November 2025 but significantly less than the 45.98 million in the same period of 2024. The total restocking volume from September to December 2025 was about 157.49 million, less than the 182.14 million in the same period last year, indicating that the medium - term production capacity pressure may continue to ease [9] Group 5: Data Overview Elimination Volume - As of the three weeks before January 8, the national elimination volume of laying hens was 19.39 million, 19.82 million, and 18.96 million respectively [18] Elimination Age - As of January 8, the average elimination age of laying hens was 484 days, the same as last week and 2 days earlier than last month [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.62 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The mainstream egg prices across the country mostly continued to rise today [4]. - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was about 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.33 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider building long positions in the far - month May contract at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial for the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent slight rebound in egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2990 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 17657 hands, up 2367 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 401 yuan/500 kilograms, down 17 yuan; the futures open interest (active contract) of eggs is 272149 hands, up 1928 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 3 hands, down 2 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.48 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 486 yuan/500 kilograms, up 109 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying - hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), down 2.21; the culled laying - hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), down 13.26; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan/feather, up 0.1 yuan; the new - chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), up 26.53; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan/hen, up 0.1 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan; the culling age of hens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.04 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.71 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7377 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.06 yuan/kg, up 0.29 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.51 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on eggs, dated January 12, 2026, by researcher Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3300, up 122 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3578, down 8; JD09 closed at 3962, down 17 [2] - The 01 - 05 spread was -278, up 130; 05 - 09 spread was -384, up 9; 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 139 [2] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, up 0.03; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.06, up 0.02; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, down 0.01; 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.37, down 0.01 [2] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.53 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin [2][4] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin [2][7] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 13.35 yuan, up 4.73 yuan from the previous day [2] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average price of corn was 2354 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan [2] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken chicks in sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - From December 18th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled hens in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled hens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [5] - As of December 18th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - As of December 18th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - As of December 18th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, a slight decrease from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, a slight increase from the previous week [6] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recently, the number of culled chickens has increased, and the previous supply pressure has been relieved. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. However, the demand side has been average recently. The near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - building on dips as the supply pressure eases [8] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to be range - bound, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - building on dips [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market is experiencing a seasonal increase in prices and demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with current trading showing a strong short-term bias, although the overall supply-demand balance remains loose [1][4]. Market Data Summary - As of January 9, 2026, the main egg futures contract closed at 3040 yuan per 500 kg, with a weekly increase of 3.72% [1]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas as of January 9 is as follows: Shandong 6.54 yuan/kg, Hebei 6.15 yuan/kg, Guangdong 7.07 yuan/kg, and Beijing 6.6 yuan/kg, all remaining stable compared to the previous day [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The national laying hen inventory as of December 2025 is reported at 1.344 billion birds, a decrease of 0.08 million from the previous month but an increase of 5% year-on-year, which is below prior expectations [2]. - Brazil's egg exports reached a record 40,894 tons in 2025, a significant increase of 121.4% from 18,469 tons in 2024, driven by strong demand from the U.S. market [2]. Institutional Perspectives - Zhongtai Futures indicates that the current egg market is entering a seasonal stocking and price increase phase ahead of the Spring Festival, with short-term strength driven by spot prices, but the overall supply pressure is expected to continue into the post-festival off-season [4]. -招商期货 notes a decrease in the laying hen inventory but a slowdown in production capacity reduction. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to accelerate sales, with low prices boosting demand, although the supply remains ample, leading to anticipated price fluctuations in the short term [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of short - term capacity reduction will be relatively gentle, the spot price is expected to decline, the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered to be established at low prices for the far - month May contract as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3072, up 45 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3558, up 17; JD09 closed at 4086, up 40 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 486, up 28; the 05 - 09 spread was - 528, down 23; the 09 - 01 spread was 1014, down 5 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans all showed slight increases [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin. Most of the national mainstream prices declined [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2340 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.57 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was - 2.61 yuan, down 1.99 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in previous years [5]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term capacity reduction will be gentle, the spot price will decline, the near - month contracts will be volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered for the far - month May contract [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be mainly volatile and weak in the short term, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.29 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 1.01% [7] - The 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3058, opened at 3045, reached a high of 3045, a low of 3019, and closed at 3027, down 31 or -1.01%, with a trading volume of 18147 and an open interest of 42239, an increase of 4654. The 2602 contract had a previous settlement price of 2897, opened at 2885, reached a high of 2894, a low of 2873, and closed at 2876, down 21 or -0.72%, with a trading volume of 113934 and an open interest of 190357, an increase of 4038. The 2603 contract had a previous settlement price of 2951, opened at 2945, reached a high of 2954, a low of 2925, and closed at 2936, down 15 or -0.51%, with a trading volume of 66149 and an open interest of 178126, an increase of 1359 [7] Core View - In the first half of last week, the spot price of eggs stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. The price increase areas were mainly concentrated in the two - lake powder egg area, while the red egg price remained stable. From the demand perspective, mid - to late December will gradually enter a small peak season with the expectation of double - holiday stocking. It is expected that the spot price will mainly fluctuate slightly, and neither a callback nor an increase will show a trend [8] - In the futures market, last week, the near - month contracts fluctuated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined to some extent. Taking the 02 - 08 spread as an example, the current spot - peak season spread on the futures market reached more than 1300, the largest spread for the same period in the past 8 years, indicating that the market has been actively pricing in the expectation that the decline in next year's inventory will drive up the egg price. During the process of the expectation becoming a reality, there will be repeated twists and turns. Considering that the far - month contracts are currently fully priced, it is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to fully adjust before entering the market and adopt a rolling operation strategy. The near - month contracts lack topics. The 02 and 03 contracts are in the absolute off - season, and the positive impact of the inventory inflection point is relatively not obvious. However, for the price to go down, the spot price increase in the peak season of January needs to be lower than expected, and the time has not come. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force, and the contracts may fluctuate at a low level, waiting for the guidance of the spot price increase in January on the near - month contracts [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, down 0.52% from the end of October (1.359 billion) and 1.368 billion at the end of September, ending the previous continuous growth. However, compared with 1.284 billion in the same period last year, the year - on - year increase still reached 5.3%, indicating significant pressure on the supply side [9] Replenishment - In November 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly increasing from 39.15 million in October but significantly decreasing by 13.5% compared with 45.69 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment in the past 4 months (August to November 2025) was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview Elimination Quantity - Recently, the trend of elimination quantity has decreased. According to Zhuochuang Information, in the three weeks up to December 18, the national culling volume of laying hens was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous downward trend [17] Elimination Age - As of December 18, the average culling age of laying hens was 486 days, the same as last week and 6 days earlier than last month [17]