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银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251127
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 11:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stockpiling, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3282, up 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3553, up 4; JD09 closed at 3944, up 22. The 01 - 05 spread was - 271, up 53; the 05 - 09 spread was - 391, down 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 35 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.07, unchanged. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.25, down 0.00. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.34, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The main producing area average price was 2.94 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main selling area average price was 3.12 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Prices in different regions had a mix of increases and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2325 yuan/ton, up 8; the average price of bean meal was 3088 yuan/ton, unchanged; the laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, up 0.01 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per feather was - 0.99 yuan, up 1.39 from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The main producing area average price increased slightly, and the main selling area average price remained stable. The national mainstream prices had a mix of increases and stability, with egg prices continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and normal sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The estimated inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chicken Seedling and Culled Chicken Data**: In October, the monthly output of chicken seedlings from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. In the week of November 21, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage and Option Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].
鸡蛋日报-20251124
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 12:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the amount of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stocking, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price and Spread**: JD01 closed at 3210, up 26 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3510, up 17; JD09 closed at 3878, up 3. The 01 - 05 spread was - 300, up 9; the 05 - 09 spread was - 368, up 14; the 09 - 01 spread was 668, down 23 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.45, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.07, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.25, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.33, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of rising and remaining stable [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in different regions also had different changes [2][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices were mixed, with some rising and some stable [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory in November, December, January, and February 2025 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume and Age**: From November 18 - 24, the national culled chicken volume in the main production areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week. The average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of November 21, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week [6]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of November 13, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of November 21, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].
鸡蛋日报-20251110
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 09:39
Group 1: Report Core View - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively slow in the short term. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, while the December main contract has given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 3: Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3383, down 8 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3505, up 17; JD09 closed at 3856, up 6 [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread was -122, down 25; the 05 - 09 spread was -351, up 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 473, up 14 [2]. - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, down 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, down 0.01; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.31, unchanged [2]. Group 4: Spot Market - The average price in the main producing areas was 3 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous trading day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.23 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan per jin [2][4]. - The price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. Group 5: Fundamental Information - In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in October was about 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - From November 2025 to February 2026, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - From November 6th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of November 6th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - As of November 6th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.25 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from the previous week. On October 31st, the expected profit of laying hen farming was -4.82 yuan per bird, a decrease of 1.42 yuan per jin from the previous week [6]. - As of November 6th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6].