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申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250905
Core Insights - The report highlights a weakening revenue growth for Hong Kong Stock Connect in H1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 1.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from 2024, while net profit growth is at 4.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from 2024 [8] - Despite the overall decline in revenue growth, there is a marginal improvement in profit growth, ROE, and net profit margin for non-financial sectors, indicating a positive trend in the context of China's economic transformation [8] - The report suggests that the fundamentals of Hong Kong Stock Connect assets are stronger in internet and new consumption sectors, while A-share assets are stronger in technology hardware and military industries [8] Industry and Company Analysis - Key industries showing improvement include computer (equipment and software development), light industry manufacturing, real estate, semiconductors, medical services, and biopharmaceuticals, with revenue and profit growth showing marginal improvements [8] - Conversely, industries such as coal and passenger vehicles are experiencing declines in both revenue and profit growth [8] - The report emphasizes the continued positive outlook for broad growth directions, noting that the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw a decline in profit growth in H1 2025, with a notable downward revision in profit forecasts since Q3 [8] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies deep value sectors with low reversal opportunities, particularly in real estate and domestic consumption companies, where some firms have cash holdings exceeding their market value [3][8] - It also points out the potential for recovery in real estate stocks driven by improving revenue and profit growth, as well as the low valuation levels in the sector [3][8] - The report recommends focusing on internet platforms with AI and new consumption characteristics, as well as innovative pharmaceuticals and medical services, which are showing continuous improvement in fundamentals [3][8]