清洁技术革命

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十年激变!全球海洋经济进入“重构纪元”——中国如何引领蓝色质变?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 03:45
Group 1 - The global ocean economy is undergoing a significant transformation due to the dual pressures of climate crisis and geopolitical tensions, with a stark contrast between optimistic past predictions and current realities [2][3] - The OECD's report warns that if energy transition does not accelerate, the global ocean economy's gross value added (GVA) could shrink by 20% by 2050, while a rapid shift to clean technologies could lead to a 40% growth [2][3] - In 2020, the global ocean economy's GVA reached $2.6 trillion, accounting for 3%-4% of the global GVA, with coastal tourism and offshore oil and gas extraction as the main pillars [2] Group 2 - The OECD report outlines three potential scenarios for the future of the ocean economy: a baseline scenario with slow growth, an accelerated transformation scenario leading to a 40% increase in GVA, and a stagnation scenario resulting in a 20% decline [3] - The accelerated transformation scenario envisions significant growth in offshore wind energy, marine aquaculture, and digital port operations, while the share of offshore oil and gas would decrease from 33% to 20% [3] Group 3 - China is positioned to lead a blue transformation in the global ocean economy, emphasizing the need for breakthroughs in both hard and soft power, including high-end equipment and marine carbon trading [5][6] - The Chinese shipbuilding industry is expected to capture over 50% of the global market share by the end of 2024, with significant advancements in offshore wind energy capacity [6][8] - The global shipbuilding industry is projected to experience a prolonged boom due to the International Maritime Organization's 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets, creating a substantial market for retrofitting vessels [8] Group 4 - Europe aims to establish itself as a climate leader in the ocean economy but faces structural challenges, including declining shipbuilding capabilities and slow digital transformation [11][12] - The UK has set ambitious targets for zero carbon shipping by 2050 and significant offshore wind capacity by 2030, while Norway seeks to lead global marine carbon standards [11] Group 5 - The future competition in the ocean economy will focus on technological innovation and rule-making rather than traditional oil and gas platforms, with key areas including offshore renewable energy, deep-sea intelligent equipment, and blue carbon economy [13][14] - China should prioritize investments in offshore infrastructure and new technologies, enhance regional cooperation, and attract global talent to establish itself as a leader in the sustainable ocean economy [14]