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五粮液:全面改革勇毅破局,期待运营创新落地-20250327
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-27 12:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company is undergoing significant marketing reforms to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market changes. The new management is focused on practical execution and performance assessment [7][10] - The establishment of specialized sales companies aims to optimize channel management and improve pricing strategies, which is expected to stabilize sales and enhance market control [7][10] - The report anticipates that these reforms will lead to improved sales performance and profitability in the medium to long term, particularly through innovative direct sales strategies [7][10] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 83,272 million RMB in 2023 to 103,836 million RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.16% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 30,211 million RMB in 2023 to 38,347 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 11.85% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 7.78 RMB in 2023 to 9.88 RMB in 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 133.90 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 519,747.31 million RMB [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.20 in 2023 to 13.55 in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation over the forecast period [1][11]
五粮液(000858):全面改革勇毅破局,期待运营创新落地
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-27 10:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye [1] Core Views - Wuliangye is undergoing significant marketing reforms to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market changes. The company has initiated a series of structural changes, including the establishment of specialized sales companies to improve channel management and optimize pricing strategies [7][10] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach RMB 94.26 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 34.29 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.06% [1] Financial Projections - Total revenue (in million RMB) for the years 2022 to 2026 is projected as follows: 73,969 (2022), 83,272 (2023), 88,780 (2024), 94,260 (2025), and 103,836 (2026) [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is expected to be: 26,690 (2022), 30,211 (2023), 32,327 (2024), 34,285 (2025), and 38,347 (2026) [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from RMB 6.88 in 2022 to RMB 9.88 in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 19.47 in 2022 to 13.55 in 2026, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [1] Market Data - The closing price of Wuliangye is reported at RMB 133.90, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 519.74 billion [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.81 and a net asset value per share of RMB 35.13 [5][6]