投资建议 白酒：春节旺销窗口收官，结合渠道反馈，我们认为春节白酒动销整体符合市场预期，预计全渠道动销量同比下滑 10~15%。其中，略超预期的反馈在于：1.节前&节内飞天茅台批价表现相对不错、未有显性回落；2.部分区域节内大众 价位产品有零星终端补货行为，当然这也与近年来终端小批量、高频次进货习惯相关，目的是规避资金占用和存货跌 价风险，但仍反映一定的动销韧性。 从节后首周反馈来看，行业价盘整体趋稳、略好于节前市场预期，目前原箱飞天茅台批价约 1690 元、环比小幅回落。 我们认为当前已经处于行业价盘筑底窗口，酒企普遍在发力去库存、春节反馈已可见一斑。本身春节飞天茅台超预期 的动销表现已进一步维稳了渠道对行业景气度的预期、修复了渠道库存容忍阈值，间接舒缓了行业秩序压力。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，预期先行、节后亦具备自上而下催化，例如近期上海发布《关 于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，进一步调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策等。中期维度伴随 "反内卷"政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，拐点逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly high-end baijiu, has seen robust sales during the Spring Festival, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye exceeding sales expectations and showing year-on-year growth [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - High-end baijiu sales have surged, with Moutai's sales increasing by over 15% during the Spring Festival, while Wuliangye has also seen a rise in sales, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [2][3] - The average market price for Moutai has decreased significantly, with boutique Moutai dropping from over 3000 yuan to below 2300 yuan, making it more accessible for consumers [3] - The demand for high-end liquor is rising, while mid-range products are also showing resilience, with many consumers opting for baijiu priced around 100 yuan for gifting during the festive season [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The trend of "immediate consumption" is becoming prevalent, with younger consumers preferring to buy liquor for immediate use rather than stockpiling [1][6] - The shift towards online purchasing and instant retail is notable, with a reported 107% increase in sales of sauce-flavored baijiu during festive gatherings [6] - Smaller packaging options, such as 100ml bottles, are gaining popularity among younger consumers, reflecting a change in drinking habits [6] Group 3: Marketing Strategies - Liquor companies are innovating their marketing strategies, focusing on engaging younger consumers through more relatable and immersive advertising methods, such as product placements in popular events [5] - The emphasis on fun and diverse marketing approaches is aimed at meeting the evolving preferences of younger consumers [5][7] - Companies are urged to shift from traditional inventory management to consumer-centric marketing strategies that leverage digital tools and enhance customer experiences [7]

24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

国盛证券在其研报中指出，2026年春节旺季呈现稳健复苏、结构性修复、哑铃型分化、头部向下挤压明 显的特点，多地反馈"茅五"动销超预期且同比增长，100—300 元价格带受益春节假期消费。需求端分 场景看，高端礼赠、大众聚饮自饮需求环比修复，商务宴请、团购需求仍有承压；分品牌看，高端名酒 和地产酒为动销主力、次高端酒动销放缓，其中飞天、普五、1935 等头部单品春节动销较旺，主要受 益于产品性价比提升、客群和场景拓展以及企业内部改革，同时300 元以下大众价位段单品动销仍相对 良性，符合节前预计基本面表现为茅台>高端>地产酒>次高端的判断。供给端看，酒企发力探索多元化 经营模式，春节营销有所创新，更加拥抱社媒，向"即饮"和"即时"场景倾斜。 （文章来源：北京商报） 北京商报讯2月24日尾盘，沪指4117.41点上涨0.87%。白酒板块以2223.20点收盘微涨0.27%，其中14只 白酒股下跌。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1466.80元/股，下跌1.25%；五粮液收盘价达105.16元/股，下跌0.85%； 山西汾酒收盘价163.58元/股，下跌1.36%；泸州老窖收盘价达112.50元/股，下跌3.23% ...

行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 食品饮料 白酒表现分化，大众品价稳量升 食品饮料行业春节跟踪点评 投资要点： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 30% 食品饮料 沪深300 % 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料 3.28 -3.44 -3.56 沪深 300 -0.90 4.64 17.14 黄静 分析师 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 | 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 | | | --- | --- | | huangjing48@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑食品饮料板块低预期、低估值、低持仓的特征，以 及板块呈现企稳改善的态势，我们维持板块"领先大市"的评级。 白酒方面，建议关注品牌力强、量价策略改善的龙头企业；大众品 方面，建议关注β企稳、α持续释放的速冻食品龙头；竞争格局稳 固，价盘有望边际改善的乳品龙头 ...

行业整体动销下滑约10%、符合预期，#其中茅台及五粮液表现超预期，此外古井、迎驾、汾酒、剑南春、今世缘 表现相对较优，其余酒企仍处调整期，行业触底特征明显，头部酒企批价下行&库存压力继续提升的风险较小。 【建投食饮|杨骥】白酒春节总结：分化加剧&行业触底，强推超预期的茅台&五粮液（20260223） 白酒春节总结：#核心关键词为"分化"&"触底"、行业周期大底复苏第一阶段。 行业整体动销下滑约10%、符合预期，#其中茅台及五粮液表现超预期，此外古井、迎驾、汾酒、剑南春、今世缘 表现相对较优，其余酒企仍处调整期，行业触底特征明显，头部酒企批价下行&库存压力继续提升的风险较小。 【建投食饮|杨骥】白酒春节总结：分化加剧&行业触底，强推超预期的茅台&五粮液（20260223） 白酒春节总结：#核心关键词为"分化"&"触底"、行业周期大底复苏第一阶段。 #差异化认知：我们认为当前为行业十年周期大底复苏第一阶段，特征为"分化&触底"，具体看： ①品牌及价位分化加剧，茅台及五粮液春节超预期，其余多数酒企仍在调整：中高端大众价位较优、高端价位稳 健、次高端价位承压，其中茅台和五粮液表现超预期，#茅台在春节期间动销、出货、批 ...

白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 茅台：#动销量超预期，春节飞天线下渠道动销增长20%，考虑i茅台投放增长超30%，主因春节期间#个人消费群 体对散茅的需求爆发（往年茅台备货节前大部分提前完成）。 预计1-2月茅台任务完成度将达45%（比往年快10个点），一季度达50%，将压力前置。 当前库存几乎为零，为后续批价坚挺提供基础，但由于非标系列缩量明显（同比下滑20-30%），需关注后续酒厂 供给端调整。 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、五）#降价后需求弹性凸显，激发了大众消费热度，相应弥补政商场景的缺失，此外#禁酒 令压制的礼赠需求也在春节有一定释放。 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|食品饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 春节走访：五省白酒动销跟踪反馈 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-24 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 02/26 食品饮料 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | | | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 郝宇新 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120010 | | | SFC CE No. BVZ687 | | | 021-38003553 | | | haoyuxin@gf.com.cn | | ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands and stable growth for mass-market products, while mid-range products face pressure [2] Group 1: High-End Market Performance - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January and February 2026, leading to price increases [3] - As of February 21, 2026, the wholesale price of Moutai reached 1,700 RMB per bottle, up 10 RMB from the previous day, indicating a significant recovery from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [3] - Moutai's sales performance is strong, with distributors achieving 35%-40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, and sales growth of 10%-20% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Other High-End Brands - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, although sales growth varies by region [4] - The price of Wuliangye's mainstream product has increased from 760 RMB to a range of 780-800 RMB per bottle since the beginning of the year [4] Group 3: Mid-Range and Mass Market Trends - Mid-range brands are experiencing sales slowdowns and market share pressures, with some products seeing declines of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [5][6] - Mass-market products are showing resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption, with brands like Gujinggong and Shanxi Fenjiu performing well [6][7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers favoring brands in the 100-300 RMB price range, leading to increased sales in larger supermarkets compared to smaller stores [7] - The demand for Guojian series liquor from Jinshiyuan has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, replacing traditional gift items [7] Group 5: Post-Festival Market Outlook - Despite strong sales during the Spring Festival, the liquor industry may face demand decline post-holiday, with potential inventory buildup and price corrections anticipated [8] - The long-term outlook suggests that many liquor businesses may exit the market, leading to a supply of discounted products [9] Group 6: Broader Consumption Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional customers, with a significant portion of participants in a survey indicating they included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands, stable growth for mass-market products, and pressure on mid-range categories [1][10]. High-End Brands - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January-February 2026, leading to price increases. The wholesale price for Moutai has risen to 1,700 RMB per bottle, up from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [2][12]. - As of February 11, 2026, Moutai's sales growth is significantly outperforming the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 10%-20% in multiple regions [2][12]. - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual sales targets by February 11, although regional sales performance varies [3][12]. Mid-Range and Low-End Products - Mid-range brands are under pressure, with many experiencing slower sales and market share erosion. For example, Gujing Gongjiu's high-end products have seen a decline of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [4][5]. - In contrast, low-end products are maintaining resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption. Sales in the 100-300 RMB price range have shown significant improvement compared to the previous year [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The overall economic environment remains challenging, and the current surge in liquor sales is largely attributed to pre-holiday demand, which may lead to inventory buildup and price corrections post-holiday [7][16]. - The liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, driven by survival and payment crises, which may lead to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8][17]. Consumer Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional high-end customers, with a notable increase in family consumption during the Spring Festival. A survey indicated that 43.85% of participants included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [9][17].