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公用事业行业周报(2026.02.02-2026.02.06):电量有望稳健增长,新能源装机增速放缓
Orient Securities· 2026-02-08 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [7]. Core Insights - Electricity demand is expected to grow steadily, while the growth rate of new energy installations is anticipated to slow down. The China Electricity Council predicts that the national electricity consumption for 2026 will be between 10.9 to 11.0 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 6% [7]. - The report highlights that the overall balance of electricity supply and demand in 2026 is expected to improve, with a reduction in the risk of electricity shortages. The growth rate of new energy installations is projected to decelerate [7]. - The report suggests that the performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering for investment [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand and Supply - The report forecasts that the total installed power generation capacity will exceed 400 million kilowatts in 2026, with new energy installations expected to surpass 300 million kilowatts [7]. - The electricity supply-demand situation is projected to be generally balanced, with some regions experiencing tighter balances during peak summer and winter periods [7]. Coal Prices and Inventory - Port coal prices have seen a slight increase, while inventory levels have decreased. The report notes that the port coal price for Q5500 grade coal was 695 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.4% [19]. - The report indicates that coal inventory at major ports has decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, with power plant coal consumption also declining by 12% [28]. Performance of Utility Sector - The utility sector index outperformed the broader market indices, with a 0.2% increase compared to a 1.3% decline in the CSI 300 index [38]. - The report identifies specific stocks within the utility sector that are recommended for investment, including JianTou Energy and Huadian International, among others [7]. Water Resource Management - The report notes a slight decrease in the outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir, with the average outflow for the week being 8,091 cubic meters per second, which is a 9.8% decrease week-on-week [31].