中原证券近日发布电力及公用事业行业月报：9月电力及公用事业指数表现弱于市场。 截至2025年9月26日，本月中信电力及公用事业指数下跌0.20%，跑输沪深300（1.19%）1.39 个百分点。2025年8月，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，连续两月突破1万亿千瓦时，同比增 长5%，但增速较2025年7月降低3.6个百分点。其中，第一产业用电量增速最高，超过10%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 行情回顾：9月电力及公用事业指数表现弱于市场。截至2025年9月26日，本月中信电力 及公用事业指数下跌0.20%，跑输沪深300（1.19%）1.39个百分点。 全国电力供需情况 需求端：2025年8月，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，连续两月突破1万亿千瓦时，同比 增长5%，但增速较2025年7月降低3.6个百分点。其中，第一产业用电量增速最高，超过 10%。 供给端：2025年8月，规上工业风电增速加快，水电降幅扩大，火电、核电、太阳能发 电增速放缓。从发电量占比看，2025年1 8月，规上工业火电占比65.04%，规上工业水电占比13.07%，规上工业核电占比 5.01%，规上工业风电占比10.85%，规 ...

电力及公用事业 分析师：陈拓 登记编码：S0730522100003 chentuo@ccnew.com 8 月用电量再度突破万亿千瓦时，9 月三 峡来水情况明显好转 ——电力及公用事业行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 09 月 29 日 ⚫ 行情回顾：9 月电力及公用事业指数表现弱于市场。截至 2025 年 9 月 26 日，本月中信电力及公用事业指数下跌 0.20%，跑输沪深 300 （1.19%）1.39 个百分点。 ⚫ 全国电力供需情况 需求端：2025 年 8 月，全社会用电量 10154 亿千瓦时，连续两月 突破 1 万亿千瓦时，同比增长 5%，但增速较 2025 年 7 月降低 3.6 个百分点。其中，第一产业用电量增速最高，超过 10%。 供给端：2025 年 8 月，规上工业风电增速加快，水电降幅扩大， 火电、核电、太阳能发电增速放缓。从发电量占比看，2025 年 1 —8 月，规上工业火电占比 65.04%，规上工业水电占比 13.07%， 规上工业核电占比 5.01%，规上工业风电占比 10.85%，规上工业 太阳能占比 6.02%。 装机容量： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the electricity sector in response to high temperatures and increased electricity demand, with specific focus on companies like Huayin Electric and the overall market outlook for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - The National Energy Administration reported that on July 4, the national maximum electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year, marking a historical high [1]. - The East China Grid recorded a load of 422 million kilowatts, with air conditioning load accounting for about 37% [1]. - Due to the ongoing high temperatures, it is expected that the electricity grid load will remain elevated in the coming week, with the State Grid maximizing its resource allocation capabilities [1]. Group 2: Company Performance and Market Outlook - Huayin Electric announced that it expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million to 220 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 894.61% compared to the same period last year [2]. - Guosheng Securities suggests that the combination of high temperatures and the peak summer electricity load will catalyze interest in the electricity sector [2]. - Xiangcai Securities anticipates that the sustained high temperatures will maintain high grid loads, improving the electricity supply-demand balance, and recommends focusing on three main lines: hydropower assets, thermal power assets with favorable supply-demand conditions, and leading companies with strong operational capabilities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is projected at 2.5%, with a notable recovery in March [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - In March 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to March 2025, the total electricity consumption was 2,384.6 billion kWh, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with the primary industry showing the highest growth rate [1][3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the industrial electricity generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 22,699 billion kWh [3]. - The share of thermal power generation was 67.52%, while wind power accounted for 12.45%, with hydro and nuclear power at 9.84% and 5.17%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Coal Market Overview - In March 2025, the industrial raw coal production was 44.1 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [4]. - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 660 RMB/ton, down 2.22% in April 2025 [4]. - Coal inventory at northern ports was 31.12 million tons as of April 25, 2025, with slight fluctuations observed [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas production showed stable growth, with an output of 66 billion cubic meters in the first quarter of 2025, up 4.3% year-on-year [6]. - Natural gas imports decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, totaling 29.42 million tons from January to March 2025 [6]. - The price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4,481.6 RMB/ton as of April 20, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% [6]. Group 4: Hydropower Situation - As of April 24, 2025, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir were 8,000 and 8,300 cubic meters per second, respectively, indicating a decrease in inflow compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. Group 5: Regional Electricity Supply and Demand - In March 2025, Henan Province's total electricity consumption was 4.259 billion kWh, up 3.33% year-on-year [8]. - The total electricity generation in Henan Province for March 2025 was 30.092 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.23% [8].