Core Viewpoint - The global oil market has experienced a significant surge, raising concerns about inflation expectations, which has led to a sharp decline in the domestic bond market, referred to as "Black Monday" [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The 30-year Treasury futures contract saw a maximum intraday decline of over 1.2%, reaching a low of 111.36 yuan, marking the largest single-day drop since 2026, ultimately closing down 1.11% at 111.52 yuan [2] - The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond increased by 4 basis points, approaching the 2.30% mark, while the yields on other maturities also rose, indicating a general upward trend in bond yields [12] - On March 9, the bond futures market experienced widespread declines, with the 30-year Treasury futures down 1.11%, the 10-year down 0.21%, and the 5-year down 0.14%, reflecting a significant sell-off in the bond market [11] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The recent crisis in Iran has reignited inflation concerns in financial markets, leading to notable declines in global bond markets, including U.S. Treasuries and Eurozone bonds [4] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen from approximately 4.6% to around 4.8% in just six trading days, an increase of over 20 basis points [5] - Analysts suggest that a 10% increase in oil prices could lead to a 0.2% to 0.3% rise in the U.S. CPI year-on-year, indicating that the short-term impact of rising oil prices on inflation should not be underestimated [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market is facing a "major test" as inflation fears grow, with U.S. Treasuries and other global bonds experiencing significant declines [4] - The rise in oil prices is expected to create a typical stagflation environment, where rising risk-free rates coincide with squeezed profit margins due to increased energy and labor costs [9] - The market's focus has shifted from a quick resolution of geopolitical tensions to a prolonged conflict, which could lead to increased liquidity risks and inflationary pressures in the bond market [14]