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国电电力(600795):火电发电边际大幅改善,五站连投在即水电成长可期
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in the marginal profitability of thermal power generation, with five new power stations set to contribute to future growth in hydropower [1] - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 125.205 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.777 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights a recovery in thermal power generation growth, with a notable increase in electricity demand driven by extreme weather conditions [7] - Hydropower generation is expected to improve with the upcoming commissioning of five new hydropower stations, which will support rapid growth in hydropower output starting next year [7] - The company has effectively reduced management and financial costs, contributing to improved profitability [7] - The profit forecast for the company remains at 7.332 billion yuan for 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13 [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue for 2025 is projected at 173.973 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 7.332 billion yuan for 2025, with a significant drop from the previous year [6] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend policy of at least 60% of the annual net profit, resulting in a dividend per share of no less than 0.22 yuan, leading to a current dividend yield of at least 4.14% [7]