火电扭亏

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山西焦煤(000983):成本压降+火电扭亏,2H25改善可期
HTSC· 2025-08-28 08:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.60 [2][9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company is expected to see improvements in the second half of 2025 due to cost reductions and a turnaround in its power generation segment. The recent rebound in coking coal prices and effective cost control measures are anticipated to enhance profitability [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.053 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.014 billion, down 48.42%. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 9.028 billion, a decline of 18.06%, with a net profit of RMB 333 million, down 67.22% [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was maintained at 29.2%, reflecting ongoing cost control efforts despite a 10% decline in industry price indices [6]. Price and Cost Outlook - The average price of coking coal has stabilized at RMB 1,480 per ton, with expectations for continued price support in the upcoming quarters. The report projects a gradual recovery in profitability as the low point of earnings is believed to have passed [6][9]. Resource Expansion and Long-term Growth - The company is actively expanding its resource reserves, including coal and associated minerals. A recent acquisition of exploration rights for coal and bauxite resources is expected to significantly enhance the company's sustainable development capabilities [8][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted the earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates raised by 13.7%, 16.2%, and 10.0% respectively, reflecting improved cost control and higher coal prices. The target price has been revised to RMB 7.60, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14.4x for 2025E [9][20].