Core Viewpoint - The traditional coal-fired power industry is undergoing significant transformation, shifting from a cyclical asset to a stable value asset due to changes in energy structure and market reforms [1][2]. Industry Transformation - The coal-fired power sector has transitioned from being a "power provider" to a "regulatory guarantor," with its role evolving to include peak supply and frequency regulation in response to the instability of renewable energy sources [1][2]. - The installed capacity of coal-fired power has decreased from 66% in 2015 to 40% by July 2025, while its generation share has dropped from 74% to 65% [1]. New Profitability Framework - The profitability of coal-fired power is now influenced by three main factors: rising capacity prices, increasing auxiliary service revenues, and the gradual improvement of the coal-electricity linkage mechanism [2][3]. - The capacity price mechanism, effective from 2024, will provide fixed compensation based on installed capacity, with expected prices rising from 100 yuan/kW·year in 2024-2025 to 165 yuan/kW·year in 2026, and up to 230 yuan/kW·year in leading provinces [2]. - Auxiliary service revenues are projected to grow significantly, with Huaneng International's net income from auxiliary services expected to rise from 1.473 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.458 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards market-based trading has reduced the influence of traditional pricing factors, allowing coal-fired power companies to optimize pricing strategies and enhance revenue per unit of electricity generated [2][3]. - The marketization of pricing mechanisms has effectively smoothed out cost fluctuations, leading to a more stable return on equity (ROE) for coal-fired power plants, projected to stabilize around 10% [3]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The coal-fired power sector is experiencing improved financial metrics, with a projected 8.2% growth in equity for 2023-2024 and a further 3.5% increase in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - Operating cash flow for the coal-fired power sector is expected to reach 144 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [5]. - The sector's dividend payouts are also on the rise, with a 91% year-on-year increase in total dividends in the first half of 2025, indicating a sustainable dividend capacity [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines of opportunity within the coal-fired power sector: leading companies with improving performance, firms committed to high dividends, and regionally stable leaders [5].

值得关注的是，电力行业正迎来市场化改革驱动的商业模式深刻变革。在136号文与现货电力市场的双 重推动下，下半年新能源投资有望显著降速，同时随着"十四五"建设高峰期渐入尾声，"十五五"期间电 力投资规模也将步入理性调整阶段。除此之外，我国新能源发电量显著增长，2024年我国风电、光伏发 电量约为1.84万亿千瓦时，占全社会用电量的18.5%，已成为国内第二大发电来源。 在此背景下，火电资产的产业地位与资源价值正加速凸显：一方面，在电力供应紧张时段，火电作为最 稳定的保障性电源，在现货市场可获得稀缺性定价；另一方面，随着新能源投资增速放缓，火电利用小 时数有望企稳回升，行业价值重估进程已然开启。业内分析认为，伴随电力市场化改革深化，火电行业 将从传统发电主导模式向"发电+调节"综合服务模式转型，商业模式将实现从"保电量"到"运营电价"的 跨越，"高现货电价+利用小时优化+容量保障收益"有望成为行业发展的主流方向。 7月14日晚间，宝新能源（000690）（000690.SZ）发布2025年上半年业绩预告，报告期内，公司业绩表 现亮眼，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润达到5.2亿元—5.8亿元，同比增长42.08%— ...