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公用事业行业研究:完善容量电价机制,变革火电盈利模型证券研究报告
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 09:58
核心观点 完善发电侧容量电价机制,火电或迎容量电价超额上涨 本周五,发改委、能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》,分类完善煤电、气电、抽蓄容量电价 机制,并首次在国家层面明确电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制,关键要素如下:(1)对于火电,因部分地区煤电利 用小时数快速下降,因此将补偿固定成本比例提升至不低于 50%,可根据实际情况进一步提升,对于煤电市场化交易 电价下限不再统一执行 20%,而由各地合理确定下限,同时放宽长协签约比例要求,鼓励电价与成本变化相结合;(2) 对于抽蓄,现行电价机制对企业成本约束不足,因此对 633 号文出台后开工的电站,实行弥补平均成本的一省一价的 统一容量电价,电站可自主参与市场交易;(3)对于电网侧独立新型储能,以煤电容量电价为基础,根据满功率连续 放电时长/全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长确定折算比例,预计各省差异较大,如目前甘肃省将持续时长设置为 6 小时; (4)有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制,在现货市场连续运行后,对本省机组可靠容量按统一原则补偿;(5)对于 可靠容量充裕或用户经济承受能力较弱地区,严控新增调节性电源项目。 火电盈利模型变革得到进一步明确,关注火 ...
贵州十年累计市场化交易电量超6900亿千瓦时
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2026-01-22 03:01
十年,增长4.7倍,累计市场化交易电量超过6900亿千瓦时。 数字背后,是一场深刻变革。作为全国首批电力体制改革综合试点省份,贵州推动电力从计划调配 的"产品"转变为市场配置的"商品",在交易品种、交易规模、交易范围三个维度实现系统突破,构建起 一个多层次、广覆盖、高效能的"立体电力市场"。 交易品种:从单一到多元生态 贵州电力交易中心最新结算数据显示,2025年贵州省市场化交易电量达988.04亿千瓦时——这意味着, 历经十年探索,贵州电力市场已从2015年的174亿千瓦时起步,稳步跃升至千亿门槛前。 2025年3月,一份特殊的合同在贵州电力交易中心签订——中广核贵州关岭月亮湾储能电站与贵州金元 智慧能源有限公司,完成了全省电力市场首份独立储能中长期交易。 "这份合同就像一颗'定心丸',让我们的储能项目可以更稳健地参与市场。"电站负责人说。过去,储能 仅是电网的"配套配件";如今,它成为拥有独立身份的市场主体,可自主参与交易、获取收益。 这一步看似微小,却是贵州电力交易体系升级的关键缩影。 十年前,贵州电力市场仅有年度双边协商这一种交易方式;如今,已形成"全周期、多品种、高频率"的 智慧交易生态: ——周期 ...
火电行业迎来价值重估 “公用事业化”开启投资新篇
Core Viewpoint - The traditional coal-fired power industry is undergoing significant transformation, shifting from a cyclical asset to a stable value asset due to changes in energy structure and market reforms [1][2]. Industry Transformation - The coal-fired power sector has transitioned from being a "power provider" to a "regulatory guarantor," with its role evolving to include peak supply and frequency regulation in response to the instability of renewable energy sources [1][2]. - The installed capacity of coal-fired power has decreased from 66% in 2015 to 40% by July 2025, while its generation share has dropped from 74% to 65% [1]. New Profitability Framework - The profitability of coal-fired power is now influenced by three main factors: rising capacity prices, increasing auxiliary service revenues, and the gradual improvement of the coal-electricity linkage mechanism [2][3]. - The capacity price mechanism, effective from 2024, will provide fixed compensation based on installed capacity, with expected prices rising from 100 yuan/kW·year in 2024-2025 to 165 yuan/kW·year in 2026, and up to 230 yuan/kW·year in leading provinces [2]. - Auxiliary service revenues are projected to grow significantly, with Huaneng International's net income from auxiliary services expected to rise from 1.473 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.458 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards market-based trading has reduced the influence of traditional pricing factors, allowing coal-fired power companies to optimize pricing strategies and enhance revenue per unit of electricity generated [2][3]. - The marketization of pricing mechanisms has effectively smoothed out cost fluctuations, leading to a more stable return on equity (ROE) for coal-fired power plants, projected to stabilize around 10% [3]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The coal-fired power sector is experiencing improved financial metrics, with a projected 8.2% growth in equity for 2023-2024 and a further 3.5% increase in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - Operating cash flow for the coal-fired power sector is expected to reach 144 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [5]. - The sector's dividend payouts are also on the rise, with a 91% year-on-year increase in total dividends in the first half of 2025, indicating a sustainable dividend capacity [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines of opportunity within the coal-fired power sector: leading companies with improving performance, firms committed to high dividends, and regionally stable leaders [5].
全国统一电力市场初步建成全球最大电力卖场进入2.0阶段
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 12:03
Core Viewpoint - The national unified electricity market in China has been established after ten years of reform, evolving into the world's largest electricity trading platform, now entering its 2.0 phase [1] Market Development - The unified electricity market has developed into a comprehensive trading platform, including spot, medium-to-long term, ancillary services, and green electricity certificates, facilitating transactions across various regions and networks [1] - The number of market participants has exceeded 970,000, with most power sources and all industrial and commercial users participating [1] Market Scale - In the first three quarters of this year, the market trading volume reached 4.9 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 63.4% of the total electricity consumption in society, making it the largest in the world, nearly double that of the European Union [1] Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism has become more transparent, with the cancellation of industrial and commercial directory electricity prices and the establishment of a market-based pricing system that reflects supply and demand more accurately [1] Future Upgrades - Authorities will continue to improve the national unified electricity market system, establish a capacity compensation mechanism, and promote better participation of renewable energy in the market [1] - There will be a focus on developing market mechanisms for new storage technologies, virtual power plants, and load aggregators to enhance flexibility in market participation [1]
“第二届国际能源可持续发展(ESG)论坛”在崇礼成功举办
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-10-03 04:17
Core Viewpoint - The second International Energy Sustainable Development (ESG) Forum was successfully held in Chongli, focusing on energy cooperation and sustainable development in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 1: Reports and Findings - The "Belt and Road Countries Energy and Power Development Report (2025)" was released, providing a comprehensive overview of energy development across Asia, Europe, Africa, and America, addressing resource endowments, energy supply-demand patterns, and energy transition policies [1] - The "Electric Power Industry ESG System Construction Research" report outlines the current status, achievements, and challenges of ESG development in the electric power sector, proposing policy recommendations to foster a collaborative governance framework [1] - The "New Energy Market Participation Series Research" report highlights the inadequacies of current market mechanisms in reflecting the multi-dimensional value of new energy, emphasizing the need for improved market structures [2][3] Group 2: Recommendations for Market Improvement - Recommendations include establishing a long-term market trading mechanism tailored for new energy generation characteristics and optimizing cross-regional trading methods [3] - The auxiliary service market should expand new service categories and improve cost-sharing and price transmission mechanisms to enhance market participants' adjustment capabilities [3] - The capacity market needs to be refined to ensure comprehensive capacity guarantees and to explore compensation methods suitable for new energy [3] Group 3: ESG Evaluation Framework - The "2025 China Energy Listed Companies Sustainable Development (ESG) Evaluation Report" introduces a comprehensive evaluation system with 37 quantitative and 43 qualitative indicators, incorporating key financial metrics for the first time [4] - The evaluation was conducted on 632 energy sector listed companies across major exchanges, with a focus on sustainable development indicators [4]
专家解读丨重点突出、思路明确,全面引导电力市场建设规范有序推进
国家能源局· 2025-09-16 10:37
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening energy management reforms and establishing a unified national electricity market in China, highlighting the rapid progress in electricity market construction and the need for further exploration and practice in various regions [2][8]. Group 1: Electricity Market System Construction - The article outlines the key focus areas for the next steps in electricity market system construction, including the optimization of the spot market trading mechanism and the encouragement of new energy sources and innovative entities to participate in the market [3][4]. - It discusses the establishment of a comprehensive design plan for various trading products, including energy, ancillary services, and capacity compensation mechanisms, to enhance market functionality and integration [3][5]. Group 2: Risk Prevention and Operational Capability - The article highlights the need for improved risk prevention and operational capabilities in the electricity market due to the evolving market environment and increased operational risks [4][5]. - It proposes the establishment of a market evaluation indicator system to monitor market structure, behavior, and performance, facilitating timely identification of operational issues and enhancing risk management [5]. Group 3: Retail Market Development - The article identifies new opportunities for retail market development alongside the steady progress of the electricity spot market, emphasizing the need for improvements in price transmission mechanisms, market competition, and transparency [6][7]. - It outlines three key requirements for retail market construction: enriching trading methods, enhancing price transmission between wholesale and retail markets, and increasing market transparency [7].
健全多层次统一电力超级市场
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-24 22:06
Core Viewpoint - The construction of a national unified electricity market is a crucial support for building a new development pattern and is essential for deepening the reform of the electricity system and promoting the green and low-carbon transition of energy [1][4]. Group 1: Importance of National Unified Electricity Market - The national unified electricity market is a key component of the national unified large market and is vital for optimizing electricity resource allocation and facilitating energy transition [1][4]. - The electricity market serves as a hub for the conversion of primary and secondary energy, playing a central role in the energy system [1]. - The construction of this market can effectively address challenges such as energy security, green electricity consumption, and price guidance, which cannot be balanced in smaller regions [1]. Group 2: Progress and Achievements - Since the implementation of the new round of electricity system reform, the construction of the electricity market has progressed steadily, with a preliminary formation of a multi-competitive主体格局 [2]. - The market transaction scale has expanded year by year, with the national market transaction electricity volume increasing from 1.1 trillion kWh in 2016 to 6.2 trillion kWh in 2024, rising from 17% to 63% of total electricity consumption [2]. - The electricity market has effectively played a role in ensuring supply, promoting transformation, and stabilizing prices, significantly contributing to high-quality economic and social development [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Despite significant achievements, there are still gaps to address, such as existing trading barriers between different market levels and the need for further strengthening of multi-level electricity market coordination [3]. - The functions and trading varieties of the electricity market need to be enriched, and the policy mechanisms supporting large-scale development and market entry of renewable energy require improvement [3]. - Innovative market mechanisms are needed to enhance system adequacy and flexible adjustment capabilities [3].