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热轧卷板市场周报:炉料疲软支撑减弱,热卷期价反弹承压-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 10:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The HC2510 contract may trade weakly in the range of 3130 - 3030 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - As of June 13, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil's main contract was 3082 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [7] - Hot - rolled coil production decreased from an increasing trend to a decreasing one, reaching 324.65 (-4.1) million tons [7] - Apparent demand declined but remained resilient. The current period's apparent demand was 319.88 (-1.04) million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.79 million tons [7] - Factory and social inventories continued to rise, but the increase was not significant. The total inventory was 345.41 (+4.77) million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.42 million tons [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year [7] Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the US will impose tariffs on various steel - made household appliances from June 23, and Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran. Domestically, Guangzhou cancelled purchase, sales, and price restrictions and lowered loan down - payment ratios and interest rates. The China - US economic and trade teams held their first meeting of the consultation mechanism, reaching a consensus on relevant measures [9] - Supply - demand aspect: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.94%. Factory and social inventories increased again, with a total inventory increase of 4.77 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 1.04 million tons to 319.88 million tons [9] - Cost aspect: Iron ore was weakly sorted. The shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, and port inventories increased from a decreasing trend. The demand side weakened. Coking coal and coke faced pressure in their rebound. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, and there were signs of marginal improvement in supply, but the clean coal inventory continued to increase. Three rounds of price cuts for coke were implemented, and the demand for downstream steel products was under pressure during the off - season [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2510 contract oscillated weakly, with the daily K - line still under pressure from multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 - axis, and the green bar turned into a red bar [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract oscillated weakly and was weaker than the HC2601 contract. On the 13th, the price difference was 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [14] Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On June 13, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 109,936 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,915 tons. The net long position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 123,876 contracts, a decrease of 6,174 contracts from the previous week [20] Spot Price - On June 13, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The national average price was 3,230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [27] 3. Upstream Market Raw Material Prices - On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/tonne, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/tonne. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton [33] Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 35.104 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.794 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 29.194 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.506 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.739 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.765 million tons [37] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 145.0314 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0283 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1525 million tons, a decrease of 0.1381 million tons [41] Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%. The daily average coke output was 521,700 tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons. The coke inventory was 873,100 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 6.6953 million tons, a decrease of 213,200 tons. The available days of coking coal were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.13 days [45] 4. Industry Conditions Supply Side - From January to April, China's steel exports increased year - on - year. In April, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative output was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49] - On June 12, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year. The hot - rolled coil weekly output was 3.2465 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from last week [52] - On June 12, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils was 765,300 tons, an increase of 180 tons from last week. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.6888 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 459,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.4541 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 477,000 tons [57] Demand Side - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% respectively. From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% respectively [60] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The production of household refrigerators was 32.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The production of household washing machines was 39.188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [60]