Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively strong, but as the US and Iran release remarks about conflict mitigation, the decline in oil prices will drive the adjustment of the black commodity sector. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0-axis. The reference view is oscillating downward, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,287 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 724,895 lots, down 48,181 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -28,239 lots, up 888 lots [2]. - HC5 - 10 contract spread: -21 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 549,618 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 167 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 13 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 40 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 782 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 169.9684 million tons, down 1.0583 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 497,600 tons, down 25,900 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.9173 million tons, up 39,500 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 2.3994 million tons, down 95,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 81.05%, up 1.25 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 86.65%, up 1.10 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.0561 million tons, up 54,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.07%, up 1.38 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 838,500 tons, down 11,100 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.6942 million tons, down 69,100 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 7.47 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 1.6724 million vehicles, down 777,400 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 1.8052 million vehicles, down 541,300 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 11.975 million units, down 380,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US White House said on Tuesday that US President Trump will deliver a national speech at 21:00 on April 1st, Eastern Time (9:00 on April 2nd, Beijing Time), providing "important updates" on the Iran issue [2]. - Affected by rising raw material costs, the expiration of factory rebate policies, and the end of promotional activities, domestic mainstream electric two-wheeler brands such as Yadea, Tailing, Aima, and Ninebot plan to officially raise the prices of most of their models starting from April 1st [2]. - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract decreased in open interest and declined. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its first-quarter regular meeting to study the main ideas of monetary policy for the next stage, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation [2]. Key Points to Watch - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract rose and then pulled back. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the spot market was relatively stable. There were signs of easing in the US - Iran situation, and the decline in oil prices led to an adjustment in the black series. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The reference view is oscillating bearish, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,120.00 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the position volume was 870,166 lots, down 30,886 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 35,320 lots, up 23,515 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was - 29 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, unchanged. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 167 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 140.00 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 40.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 782.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; the price of first - class coking coal at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) was 2,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 16,996.84 million tons, down 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 49.76 million tons, down 2.59 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 691.73 million tons, up 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 239.94 million tons, down 9.59 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.05%, up 1.25 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 86.65%, up 1.10 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 197.87 million tons, down 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 43.37%, down 1.20 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 219.16 million tons, down 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 642.75 million tons, down 10.46 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel products was 747.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 3.80%, down 5.60 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 17.20%, down 6.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, down 2.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659,890 million square meters, down 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 53,686 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 40,236.00 million square meters, up 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to comprehensive reports from CCTV News and other media, the White House said on Tuesday that US President Trump would give a national speech at 21:00 on April 1st, Eastern Time (9:00 on April 2nd, Beijing Time) to issue an "important update" on the Iran issue. From March 23rd to March 29th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.3472 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 77.1% and a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Energy and Industrial Production - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of March 26, with a cumulative increase of 1.3% for the year[3] - The operating rate of national blast furnaces recorded 79.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points[3] - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 2.019 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%[5] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction resumption rate of 10,692 sites nationwide was 62%, a month-on-month increase of 19.5 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.62 percentage points[5] - The average cement dispatch rate was 24.4%, a month-on-month increase of 4.9 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%[6] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - The average daily transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a 28.0% decline in February[8] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from March 1 to 22 decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, an improvement from a 25.4% decline in the previous month[10] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Economic Indicators - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) recorded 137.9 points, a month-on-month increase of 7.1 percentage points[6] - The average daily number of domestic flights was 13,400, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%[8]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of rebar and hot-rolled coils, including their fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend intensity [1][2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for rebar and hot-rolled coils is weak, with prices fluctuating [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.48%); for HC2605, it was 3,294 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 477,403 lots, and the open interest was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 310,343 lots, and the open interest was 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices in Hangzhou remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet remained at 2,980 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2605 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 99 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to -14 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 increased by 4 yuan/ton to -25 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to -16 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to 173 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2610 and RB2610 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton. The spot coil-to-rebar spread remained at -37 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In February 2026, China exported 783.8 million tons of steel, a 1.1% month-on-month increase, with an average export price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a 6.7% month-on-month increase. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.2 million tons, an 8.1% year-on-year decrease, with an average export price of 706.4 US dollars/ton, a 1.0% year-on-year decrease. In February, China imported 36.9 million tons of steel, a 19.6% month-on-month decrease, with an average import price of 1,740.7 US dollars/ton, a 2.9% month-on-month decrease. From January to February, the cumulative steel imports were 82.7 million tons, a 21.2% year-on-year decrease, with an average import price of 1,769.5 US dollars/ton, an 8.0% year-on-year increase [2][3] - **Steel Production and Inventory**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on March 26, the production of rebar decreased by 5.46 million tons, the production of hot-rolled coils increased by 5.4 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.24 million tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 27.5 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 8.02 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 48.39 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.28 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 3.12 million tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 19.49 million tons [3] - **Steel Production of Key Enterprises**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,781 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 26.0% increase from the beginning of the year, a 17.9% increase from the same ten-day period of the previous month, a 9.7% increase from the same ten-day period of last year, and an 8.8% decrease from the same ten-day period of the year before last. In early March, key steel enterprises produced 2,011 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 201.1 million tons, a 0.8% decrease from the previous ten-day period; 1,821 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 182.1 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from the previous ten-day period; and 1,845 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 184.5 million tons, a 12.6% decrease from the previous ten-day period [3] - **National Steel Production**: From January to February, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 16,034 million tons, a 3.6% year-on-year decrease, with a cumulative daily output of 271.76 million tons; the production of pig iron was 13,770 million tons, a 2.7% year-on-year decrease, with a cumulative daily output of 233.39 million tons; and the production of steel was 22,119 million tons, a 1.1% year-on-year decrease, with a cumulative daily output of 374.90 million tons [3] - **Real Estate and Industrial Data**: In February 2026, the overall decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow month-on-month and decreased year-on-year. From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a 11.1% year-on-year decrease. From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year. From January to February, the national fixed asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year [3] - **Inflation Data**: In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year-on-year. The national producer price index for industrial products decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and the trend intensity of hot-rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Slow resumption of hot metal production, and ore prices are under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak market sentiment, with repeated fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuations in market trading sentiment, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Tightening demand expectations at the ore end, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Improving demand, with prices oscillating at a high level [2][20] 3. Summary by Category Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 808.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan or 0.62%. The trading volume was 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) was 777.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices to a relatively high level. Recently, there are expectations of easing in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in ore prices. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy-based financial instruments. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 231.09 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.94 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.33%. The trading volume was 477,403 lots, and the open interest was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. Among spot prices, the Shanghai rebar price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, with an average export price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In March, the output of rebar decreased by 5.46 tons, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.4 tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2605 futures contract was 5,874 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan. The trading volume was 166,212 lots, and the open interest was 158,901 lots. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In March, the silicon - manganese production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia increased. However, starting from April 1, many enterprises announced production cuts. A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6,580 yuan/ton in late March [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a bearish outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan or 5.4%. The trading volume was 863,734 lots, and the open interest was 396,170 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots. The spot price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 31, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain trends. The online auction of coking coal had a high rejection rate, and the market sentiment was weak [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 820.5 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.7%. The trading volume was 4,637 lots, a decrease of 15.2%. The open interest was 11,027 lots, a decrease of 3.2%. The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/m³, unchanged [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy - based financial instruments [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend forecasts and analysis of influencing factors for each commodity [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: Drops from the trading range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: The situation reverses and rebounds, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. - **Palladium**: Rebounds upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Risk sentiment improves, and prices rise. The trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Runs strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventories decline, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply pressure persists. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. The trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of the pyrometallurgical cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The document does not directly cover crude oil, but it mentions the impact of geopolitical factors on energy prices [68][69]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Urea**: Oscillates in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Benzene**: Oscillates strongly. The trend strength is 0 [2][110]. - **PTA**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][76]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Widely oscillates within the day. The trend strength is 0 [2][79]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and the structure is differentiated. The trend strength is 1 [2][83]. - **PP**: The supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April. The trend strength is 1 [2][84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level. The trend strength is 1 [2][89]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][93]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is 0 [2][116]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks remain, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The trend strength is 1 [2][121]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend remains strong. The trend strength is 1 [2][122]. - **PVC**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: Drops at the night session and remains high in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds overseas. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance. The trend strength is 1 [2][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sown area is lower than expected, boosting the sentiment of the soybean sector. The trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA area report is bullish, and the market may rebound. The trend strength is 1 [2][170]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the market rebounds and oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][170]. - **Corn**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][173]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates within a range. The trend strength is 0 [2][177]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new domestic crop planting. The trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts. The trend strength is 0 [2][185]. - **Hogs**: The L - bottom expectation is recognized, and the central price continues to decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][188]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The resumption of hot metal production is slow, and ore prices are under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market trading sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Manganese Silicide**: The expected demand from the ore end tightens, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Log**: The demand improves, and the price oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The trend strength is 0 [2][151].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.48%. During the roll - over period, both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply is shrinking, while demand is seasonally improving, leading to marginal improvement in the fundamental situation. Coupled with cost support, steel prices have returned to the upper edge of the volatile range. However, the strength of peak - season demand is in doubt, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.33%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. At present, the fundamental situation of hot - rolled coil has improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with cost support, the price has returned to the upper edge of the range. However, demand concerns remain, and the high - inventory situation limits the upward driving force. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.80%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, supply disruptions support the high - level operation of iron ore prices, but the room for demand growth is limited, and there is no substantial improvement in the iron ore fundamental situation. The over - valued iron ore price continues to face pressure. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Recently, three Chinese vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and China called for a cease - fire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region [7]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level [8]. - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully resumed. The company expects to make up for half of the approximately 8 million tons of iron ore shipment volume affected by cyclones, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance remains at 323 - 338 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,200 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,333 yuan, down 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,328 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet remains unchanged at 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remains unchanged at 2,180 yuan. The volume - screw price difference is 90 yuan, and the screw - scrap price difference is 1,010 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 775 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 772 yuan, unchanged. The Australian freight is 10.93 yuan, up 0.17 yuan; the Brazilian freight is 30.56 yuan, down 0.10 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 106.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 108.50 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,121 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume is 477,403 lots, a decrease of 139,352 lots, and the open interest is 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,294 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume is 310,343 lots, an increase of 27,129 lots, and the open interest is 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 808.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.80%. The trading volume is 158,111 lots, an increase of 15,153 lots, and the open interest is 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production conditions (including 247 - sample - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent - electric - furnace - steel - mill operating rate, and profit situation) [14][22][30] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the weekly output has decreased by 5.460,000 tons. Demand is seasonally improving, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 17.280,000 tons. However, the strength of future demand improvement is in doubt. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand continue to rise. The weekly output has increased by 5.400,000 tons, and the inventory level is still high. Demand has some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.120,000 tons. However, there are still concerns about demand. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is rising seasonally. However, the room for future demand growth needs further observation. Supply is running smoothly. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the steel supply and demand fundamentals will continue to be in a game between relatively weak demand and relatively strong cost support. The core trading logic of the market lies in the macro - level, and the steel's own fundamentals lack obvious contradictions, increasing the operation difficulty. In the first half of the second quarter, steel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening pattern, but in the second half, if the conflict eases, market correction risks should be watched out for [3][88][89] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - quarter Steel Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, steel prices continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The black industry chain showed a flat performance due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal domestic demand and the suppression of steel prices by the increase in absolute inventory levels. The upward and downward price spaces were limited, resulting in a narrow - range oscillating pattern. The forward curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil were relatively flat, and the forward premium of rebar after the Spring Festival was lower than that of last year. The basis of rebar was relatively higher than in previous years, and the supply - side pressure of hot - rolled coil was greater [10] 3.2 Demand Changes are Limited, Focus on the Rhythm of External Demand 3.2.1 Domestic Demand Remains Stable, with Limited Expectations for Incremental Policies - After the Two Sessions in March 2026, it became clear that the domestic economy in 2026 would focus on stability, with limited incremental policy space. The GDP growth target was lowered, and the scale of fiscal policies such as the deficit rate, special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds remained the same as last year. The incremental funds for "two important" and "two new" aspects were also limited. Therefore, the outlook for steel domestic demand is not optimistic [19][20] 3.2.2 Real Estate Demand is Difficult to Improve, Infrastructure Focuses on Rhythm - Since the beginning of 2026, the second - hand housing market in first - tier cities has shown signs of a slight rebound, but the sustainability is to be observed. The improvement in the first - hand housing market is limited, and the year - on - year decline in real estate sales and new construction areas is still significant. For infrastructure investment, the incremental space depends on the participation of social capital. The fiscal policy shows a pre - set trend this year, and infrastructure investment in the spring is expected to support building material demand, but it may show a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [23][24] 3.2.3 The Decline in National Subsidies May Lead to a Decline in Manufacturing Domestic Demand - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars and home appliances have declined due to the reduction of national subsidies. In early 2026, the recovery of national subsidies had limited impact on demand. The production and sales of passenger cars in January - February decreased year - on - year, and the inventory coefficient of car dealers increased. The demand for home appliances has slightly improved, but the improvement space is limited. However, the manufacturing export remains strong, and although the export to the Middle East is affected by the conflict, the long - term external demand is expected to remain strong [33][34] 3.2.4 Steel Exports are Slightly Better than Expected, and Structural Differentiation Intensifies - In early 2026, the direct exports of steel and semi - finished products were slightly better than expected. The implementation of the export license management system affected steel exports, with a year - on - year decrease in steel exports and an increase in billet exports. The export of plates decreased significantly, and the export to most regions declined. In March, the steel exports to the Middle East were affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Although the short - term export is affected, the medium - term trend is not pessimistic [51][60][61] 3.3 Inventory Structural Contradictions Remain, and Cost Support is Strengthened 3.3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts Further Strengthen Cost Support - In the first quarter of 2026, with the slight resumption of hot metal production and the increase in energy prices, the profit of finished products declined again. The cost of the long - process steelmaking has been in a relatively stable and narrow - range oscillating pattern since the fourth quarter of last year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, energy prices are unlikely to return to the pre - conflict low. If the domestic demand does not decline significantly in the second quarter, the upward risk of the cost side is higher than the downward risk [63][64][73] 3.3.2 The Total Inventory Contradiction is Controllable, and Structural Differentiation is Obvious - After the Spring Festival, the structural contradiction of finished product inventory is obvious, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. The inventory of five major varieties is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the low inventory of building materials. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil is relatively obvious, and the inventory of non - five major varieties is also at a high level. High inventory mainly suppresses the upward space of steel prices, and the risk of negative feedback in the second quarter may come from the macro - level [74][75] 3.4 Second - quarter Steel Supply and Demand Outlook and Market Trading Logic - In the second quarter, the steel market will be in a game between weak demand and strong cost support. The energy price fluctuations caused by the Middle East situation and the market's expectations for the global economy will be important influencing factors. If a cease - fire agreement is reached in April, the upward space of steel prices will be limited; if not, there will be an obvious upward risk in supply and raw material costs. The core trading logic of the steel market in the second quarter lies in the macro - level, and the operation difficulty increases. In the first half of the second quarter, steel prices may be oscillating and strengthening, while in the second half, if the conflict eases, market correction risks should be watched out for [88][89]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the international situation is volatile with many uncertainties. With signs of easing in the US-Iran situation, commodity prices have generally declined. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the trading volume of the HC main contract was 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -29,127 lots, an increase of 18,558 lots; the HC5-10 contract spread was -16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt report was 549,618 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (excluding tax) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 169.9684 million tons, a decrease of 1.0583 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 497,600 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.9173 million tons, an increase of 39,500 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.3994 million tons, a decrease of 95,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0561 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.07%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; the inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 838,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.6942 million tons, a decrease of 69,100 tons; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.47 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 1.6724 million vehicles, a decrease of 777,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 1.8052 million vehicles, a decrease of 541,300 vehicles; the monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, an increase of 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, a decrease of 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Three Chinese ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz recently, and China called for a ceasefire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [2]