热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

期货研究报告 热轧卷板周度数据（20260109） 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 305.51 1.00 304.51 1.00 312.72 -7.21 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.04 0.78 85.26 0.78 86.13 -0.09 表观需求量 308.34 -2.43 310.77 -2.43 312.19 -3.85 冷轧卷板周产量 88.84 2.47 86.37 2.47 86.08 2.76 总库存 368.13 -2.83 370.96 -2.83 309.28 58.85 厂内库存 77.32 -5.00 82.32 -5.00 79.63 -2.31 社会库存 290.81 2.17 288.64 2.17 229.65 61.16 热卷供需格局变化不大，板材钢厂生产趋稳，热卷周产量环比增 1.00万吨，供应延续回升并位于相对高位，加之库存水平偏高，供 应压力未缓解，继续承压钢价。与此同时，热卷需求有所走弱，周 度表需环比降2.43万吨，高频每日成交低位运行，相对利好的是下 供给 需求 库存 270 280 290 300 310 320 ...

作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 1.02%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，商品情绪偏暖，叠加原料走势偏强，热卷价格低位回升，但供增需 弱局面下基本面并未好转，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑回归产业端，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.73%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，铁矿石供应偏高，而需求改善受限，矿石基本面并未改善，矿价继 续承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖与节前补库预期，多空因素博 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.9」 热轧卷板市场周报 多空交织 热卷期价冲高回调 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至1月9日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3294（+24），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量增加。305.51（+1），（同比+1.62）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需308.34（-2.43），（同比-5.33）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库降，社库增。总库存368.13（-2.83），（同比+58.22）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比上周减少0.44个百分点，同比去年减少12.99个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美国国会预算办公室预计美联储今年将小幅降息，目前利率成本在3.5%至3.75%的区间内，预计第四季度 将降至3.4% ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-09 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 白银高位回落，提示短期价格压力 观点分享： 我们观察近日白银有几个变化：1、由于此前国内投机情绪集中涌入、以及下游备货等行 为，国内现货升水高企，但近期有所缓和；海外白银租赁利率明显回落，1M 从 8%以上回落 至 4.46%，且结构从 back 转为 contango。2、价差方面，尽管伦纽维持升水，但内外价差 有所收敛，国内溢价持续挤出。3、资金层面，交易所对白银风控加码，限制最大开仓数量， 打压多头热情。此外，1 月 8 日 BCOM 权重调整即便市场规模有限，但在多空均有犹豫的高 位下对多空博弈的砝码影响可能高于理性判断，且美国最高法院周五将对特朗普关税是否合 法做出裁决，可能成为大逻辑上判断白银现货矛盾关键的证伪因素。 种种迹象表明，多头持续拉升价格的压力逐渐加大，现货紧俏短期在元旦后达到小高 峰，资金面基本面均出现泄力迹象，继续突破上行的条件越来越苛刻。故我们判断，从策略 维度上看，白银趋势做多策略具备离场的价值。 我们讨论是否代表了白银趋 ...

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空盘面博弈，警惕持仓风险 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空盘面博弈，警惕持仓风险 | 5 | | 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 813.0 | 涨跌(元/吨) -15.0 | 涨跌幅 -1.81% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | | | | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 636. 674 | -29.907 | | | | | 昨日价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.44%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 得益于商品偏暖情绪，螺纹钢价格低位回升，但供应持续增加，而需求 表现偏弱，基本面矛盾开始累积，淡季钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成 本支撑，预计后续走势延续低位震荡态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.48%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，商品情绪偏暖，叠加原料走势偏强，热卷价格低位回升，但供增需 弱局面下基本面并未好转，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑回归产业端，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 2026 年 1 月 8 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,187 | 89 | 2.87 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,332 | 82 | 2.52 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,937,222 | 1,741,383 | 178,435 | | | HC2605 | 943,506 | 1,377,887 | 103,802 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3320 | 3280 | 40 | | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月08日08时27分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比上升，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求继续回 升，五大品种表观需求整体方。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且市场整体处于消费淡季，钢厂产量仍有可能延续下降的趋势 。昨日焦煤和焦炭涨停，螺 纹和热卷跟随大涨，突破了近期的震荡区间，有可能将展开一轮中线级别的上涨行情 。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才 能到来，宏观面信心增强，股市强势上破以及双焦的大幅上涨提振信心 ， 期价向上的空间大于向下的空间。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易。空仓者不建议追涨，回调后再入场做多 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3187 | 76 | 2.44% | 65 | 2.08% | | | 热轧卷 ...