Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coils can be traded in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, considering the increasing expectations of loose monetary policies in China and the US, and the expected improvement in demand after the resumption of work in enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region following the end of the military parade [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of September 5, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3340 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [7] - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 314.24 million tons, down 10.5 million tons week - on - week but up 3.76 million tons year - on - year [7] - Apparent demand declined to 305.36 million tons, down 15.36 million tons week - on - week and 4.01 million tons year - on - year [7] - Total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly to 374.34 million tons, up 8.88 million tons week - on - week but down 68.64 million tons year - on - year [7] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, down 2.60 percentage points week - on - week but up 56.71 percentage points year - on - year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal; the market is focusing on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday, and weak data may trigger discussions on a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 [9] - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly production of hot - rolled coils decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.27%; terminal demand was affected, inventory increased, and apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly, and the expected improvement in demand supported the firmness of iron ore prices. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased to 75.8%, and the decline in clean coal inventory supported the rebound of coking coal prices [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2601 contract was consolidating in a range, with technical support around 3300 yuan/ton, and it was testing the pressure of the MA10/MA20 moving averages in the short term; the downward momentum of the DIFF and DEA in the MACD indicator weakened, and the green bars shrank [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - The HC2601 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the price difference on September 5 was 26 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 5, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,059 tons, down 601 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 futures contracts of hot - rolled coils was 113,503 lots, an increase of 10,966 lots from the previous week [22] 2.3 Spot Price - On September 5, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3420 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on September 5 was 60 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [33] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From August 25 - 31, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China increased. The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, up 1.827 million tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, up 1.327 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, up 1.478 million tons week - on - week [38] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China was 144.2572 million tons, up 0.377 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3033 million tons, down 0.0381 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1702 million tons, down 1.1329 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.9296 million tons, up 0.662 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 91.6996 million tons, down 0.5806 million tons [42] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.61%, down 0.09 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 51.21, down 0.07; the coke inventory was 40.71, up 0.9; the total inventory of coking coal was 780.95, down 38.92; the available days of coking coal were 11.5 days, down 0.55 days [46] 4. Industry Conditions 4.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative national crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [49] - In July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 0.158 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 0.452 million tons, a decrease of 0.018 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; from January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [49] - On September 5, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.4%, down 2.80 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.77 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, down 4.23 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.19 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, down 0.1129 million tons week - on - week but up 0.0623 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 31.424 million tons, down 1.05 million tons from the previous week but up 0.376 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 7.998 million tons, up 0.003 million tons from the previous week but down 1.447 million tons year - on - year. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 29.436 million tons, up 0.858 million tons week - on - week but down 5.417 million tons year - on - year. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 37.434 million tons, up 0.888 million tons week - on - week but down 6.864 million tons year - on - year [57] 4.2 Demand Side - In July 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.593 million and 2.591 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.7% and 13.3%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.0% [60] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the production of household refrigerators was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the production of household washing machines was 68.1282 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The HC2510 contract may trade weakly in the range of 3130 - 3030 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - As of June 13, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil's main contract was 3082 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [7] - Hot - rolled coil production decreased from an increasing trend to a decreasing one, reaching 324.65 (-4.1) million tons [7] - Apparent demand declined but remained resilient. The current period's apparent demand was 319.88 (-1.04) million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.79 million tons [7] - Factory and social inventories continued to rise, but the increase was not significant. The total inventory was 345.41 (+4.77) million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.42 million tons [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year [7] Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the US will impose tariffs on various steel - made household appliances from June 23, and Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran. Domestically, Guangzhou cancelled purchase, sales, and price restrictions and lowered loan down - payment ratios and interest rates. The China - US economic and trade teams held their first meeting of the consultation mechanism, reaching a consensus on relevant measures [9] - Supply - demand aspect: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.94%. Factory and social inventories increased again, with a total inventory increase of 4.77 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 1.04 million tons to 319.88 million tons [9] - Cost aspect: Iron ore was weakly sorted. The shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, and port inventories increased from a decreasing trend. The demand side weakened. Coking coal and coke faced pressure in their rebound. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, and there were signs of marginal improvement in supply, but the clean coal inventory continued to increase. Three rounds of price cuts for coke were implemented, and the demand for downstream steel products was under pressure during the off - season [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2510 contract oscillated weakly, with the daily K - line still under pressure from multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 - axis, and the green bar turned into a red bar [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract oscillated weakly and was weaker than the HC2601 contract. On the 13th, the price difference was 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [14] Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On June 13, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 109,936 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,915 tons. The net long position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 123,876 contracts, a decrease of 6,174 contracts from the previous week [20] Spot Price - On June 13, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The national average price was 3,230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [27] 3. Upstream Market Raw Material Prices - On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/tonne, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/tonne. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton [33] Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 35.104 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.794 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 29.194 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.506 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.739 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.765 million tons [37] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 145.0314 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0283 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1525 million tons, a decrease of 0.1381 million tons [41] Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%. The daily average coke output was 521,700 tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons. The coke inventory was 873,100 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 6.6953 million tons, a decrease of 213,200 tons. The available days of coking coal were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.13 days [45] 4. Industry Conditions Supply Side - From January to April, China's steel exports increased year - on - year. In April, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative output was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49] - On June 12, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year. The hot - rolled coil weekly output was 3.2465 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from last week [52] - On June 12, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils was 765,300 tons, an increase of 180 tons from last week. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.6888 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 459,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.4541 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 477,000 tons [57] Demand Side - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% respectively. From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% respectively [60] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The production of household refrigerators was 32.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The production of household washing machines was 39.188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures price is weakly operating due to weakened cost support. The black series is performing sluggishly, and the market lacks confidence in long-term demand. It is recommended to conduct short-side trading on the HC2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on May 9, the futures price of the main hot-rolled coil contract was 3157 yuan/ton (-47 yuan), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (-20 yuan) [7] - Hot-rolled coil production continued to increase to 320.38 million tons (+1.08 million tons) [7] - Terminal demand was blocked, and the apparent demand declined. The current apparent demand was 309.53 million tons (-23.19 million tons), (year-on-year +0.89 million tons) [7] - Factory inventories declined, and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 365.12 million tons (+10.85 million tons), (year-on-year -56.37 million tons) [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from last week and 6.92 percentage points from last year [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement. Domestically, China and the US will hold high-level economic and trade talks, and the central bank took measures to stabilize the property market [9] - Supply and demand aspect: The weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate above 80%. Factory inventories declined, social inventories increased, and the total inventory ended its consecutive decline. Terminal demand was blocked, and the apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The import volume of iron ore increased significantly, and the supply increase expectation strengthened, with the ore price oscillating weakly. Coking coal production was normal, with a high coking coal auction failure rate. The demand for coke still had rigid support, but the market was cautious due to the rumor of crude steel production reduction [9] - Technical aspect: The daily K-line of the HC2510 contract was under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0-axis [9] - Strategy recommendation: Conduct short-side trading on the HC2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price oscillated weakly. The HC2510 contract oscillated weakly and performed stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of -8 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan/ton [11][14] - This week, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the net long position of the top 20 holders increased. On May 9, the warehouse receipt volume was 297,005 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 37,011 tons, and the net long position of the top 20 was 149,883 contracts, an increase of 31,815 contracts from last week [17][21] - This week, the spot price decreased. On May 9, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3314 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price was stronger than the futures price, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week-on-week increase of 7 yuan/ton [23][25] 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. On May 9, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson iron ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week decrease of 7 yuan/dry ton, and the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0 yuan/ton [28][30] - The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.404 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.18 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.344 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.452 million tons [32][34] - This week, the iron ore port inventory declined. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.6471 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8356 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [36][38] - This week, the coking plant capacity utilization rate decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The daily coke output was 535,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons [40][42] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - From January to April, the steel export volume increased year-on-year. In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. From January to April, the steel export volume was 37.891 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [43][45] - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased. On May 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from last week, and the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from last week [46][48] - The total hot-rolled coil inventory decreased. On May 8, the hot-rolled coil inventory in factories was 848,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 700 tons, and the social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.8032 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 115,500 tons [49][53] 3.4.2 Demand Side - The production and sales of automobiles and home appliances increased year-on-year. From January to March 2025, the total automobile production was 7.561 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and the total sales were 7.47 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [54][56]