Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda is expected to run moderately strong in the short - term. Although the far - month valuation is repaired due to cost increase affected by liquid chlorine, the continuous rebound space may be limited. The key is to focus on the persistence of liquid chlorine's impact on caustic soda supply [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 10, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2454, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, the converted futures price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda was 2531, and the basis was 77 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda was 810 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous period. After the procurement price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises increased, the price was temporarily stable today. The operating load of local enterprises changed little, and the market price was stable [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures was due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, causing some enterprises to reduce production. The short - term spot rebound was because low prices stimulated phased replenishment demand. In July, the overhaul capacity decreased compared to June, mainly in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled devices in Shandong will restart. The new capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but export support is okay with strong low - price replenishment willingness. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid fall of liquid chlorine increased the cost of caustic soda [3]