期货研究 烧碱：成本抬升，偏强震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2168 640 2000 -168 2026 年 2 月 13 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 从基本面看，需求端氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过后期也有大 规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口囤货偏弱，整体需求偏弱。供应端看， 山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续降价导致烧碱面临成本抬升、供应预期大规模减产的格局。因此建议 05 合约多单持 有。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 44.29 万吨(湿吨)，环比下调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last after April, and the recent price cut of liquid chlorine in Shandong has significantly raised the cost of caustic soda. The short - term oversupply situation of alumina in the demand side has not changed, and the overall demand is weak. The spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production reduction and load reduction is increasing after March. The weak spot pattern of caustic soda is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival, but later, caustic soda will face cost increase and large - scale production reduction. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions of the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and consider gradually building long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the futures price of the 03 contract was 1862, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 600, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was 13 [1] Spot News - On February 9, the price of liquid chlorine of Shandong Xinfa was reduced by 50 yuan, with the tank - truck ex - factory price at 1 - 100 yuan/ton [2] Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of shorting caustic soda profit was the strong liquid chlorine and the declining caustic soda cost. However, this logic will be challenged later as the short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not last after April. The recent 200 - yuan/ton price cut of liquid chlorine in Shandong has raised the caustic soda cost [3] - In the demand side, the short - term oversupply of alumina remains unchanged, and the expectation of production reduction suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. There is also incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later. Non - aluminum downstream is facing a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and export stockpiling is weak, so the overall demand is weak [3] - In the supply side, the spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production reduction and load reduction is increasing after March [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda is expected to run moderately strong in the short - term. Although the far - month valuation is repaired due to cost increase affected by liquid chlorine, the continuous rebound space may be limited. The key is to focus on the persistence of liquid chlorine's impact on caustic soda supply [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 10, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2454, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, the converted futures price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda was 2531, and the basis was 77 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda was 810 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous period. After the procurement price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises increased, the price was temporarily stable today. The operating load of local enterprises changed little, and the market price was stable [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures was due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, causing some enterprises to reduce production. The short - term spot rebound was because low prices stimulated phased replenishment demand. In July, the overhaul capacity decreased compared to June, mainly in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled devices in Shandong will restart. The new capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but export support is okay with strong low - price replenishment willingness. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid fall of liquid chlorine increased the cost of caustic soda [3]