Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [3] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda is expected to run strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of this trend may be limited. The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is due to previous production cuts in some plants affected by weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking. However, the supply - side driver is hard to sustain as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, so the rebound lacks sustainability [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2496, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 820, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2563, and the basis was 67 [1] Spot News - On July 12, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa increased by 150 yuan, with an ex - factory price of - 350 yuan [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is driven by previous production cuts in some plants due to weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking. But the supply - side driver is unsustainable as plants have resumed production this week. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and downstream is reluctant to restock at high prices [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June. Maintenance is mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and previously maintained plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3] - Non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina caustic soda inventory is neutral, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to restock at low prices is strong [3]

烧碱：短期偏强运行 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2454 810 2531 77 2025 年 7 月 10 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 810 元/吨，较上期价格环比持平。前期主力下游企业采购 液碱价格上调后今日价格暂稳。区域内企业开工负荷变动较小，市场价格稳定。 【市场状况分析】 近期烧碱期货价格反弹，主要因液氯降价速度超预期，部分企业出现降负。短期现货方面出现反弹，主 要因价格低位，刺激市场阶段性补库需求。 从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东，山东前期检修装置 将陆续重启。同时，烧碱 6-7 月份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力仍较大。需求端，非铝需求支撑 偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存偏高，不过出口方向支撑尚可，低价补库意愿较强。成本端，虽然 7 月份电价继续 下行，但液氯的快速下跌，导致烧碱成本抬升。 请 ...