1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side support for hot - rolled coils has weakened, causing the futures prices to fall from high levels. The HC2510 contract may enter a range - bound consolidation, and short - term trading is recommended with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton - Hot - rolled coil production increased from a decline, reaching 322.79 million tons, up 5.3 million tons - Apparent demand rebounded to 3.2 million tons, up 476,000 tons from the previous period and down 130,000 tons year - on - year - Both factory and social inventories increased, with the total inventory rising to 3.4795 million tons, up 27,900 tons and down 843,600 tons year - on - year - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, up 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points from last year [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended for 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased from a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46% remaining at a relatively high level; total inventory continued to increase slightly, and apparent demand was adjusted up to 3.2 million tons - Cost aspect: Coking coal prices dropped from continuous limit - up to limit - down, hitting market sentiment, and iron ore prices also declined, weakening cost - side support - Technical aspect: The HC2510 contract rose and then fell, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive negative lines and being under pressure below the 5 - day moving average; the MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red column shrank - Strategy suggestion: The anti - involution positive expectations in the macro - aspect are fading; in the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, terminal demand is resilient, apparent demand rebounds, but furnace material prices are adjusting downward, weakening cost - side support. The HC2510 contract may enter a range - bound consolidation, and short - term trading is recommended with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Adjustment - This week, the HC2510 contract adjusted downward. It outperformed the HC2601 contract, with the spread on the 1st being - 2 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On August 1st, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 57,174 tons, down 1,188 tons week - on - week - On August 1st, the net short position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 108,966 lots, an increase of 45,704 lots from last week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price Adjustment - On August 1st, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3482 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton week - on - week - This week, the hot - rolled coil spot price was stronger than the futures price, with the basis on the 1st being 79 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Material Price Changes - On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week - On August 1st, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [32] 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.009 million tons, up 918,000 tons; the Australia - Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 27.559 million tons, up 2.039 million tons - From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 47 ports was 23.197 million tons, down 1.921 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 22.405 million tons, down 1.307 million tons; at the six northern ports, it was 11.573 million tons, down 2.319 million tons - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, down 1.7367 million tons; the average daily clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, down 114,200 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore inventory was 61.0885 million tons, down 2.004 million tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 51.9207 million tons, up 524,700 tons; trade ore inventory was 90.4245 million tons, down 1.4112 million tons - On July 31st, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons week - on - week and 141,100 tons year - on - year [37][41] 3.3.3 Coking Industry Changes - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48%, down 0.13%; the daily coke output was 518,300 tons, down 90 tons; coke inventory was 465,200 tons, down 36,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.4406 million tons, up 28,500 tons; the available coking coal days were 12.3 days, up 0.07 days [45] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply - Side Changes - In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, it was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, down 900,000 tons from the previous month and 8.5% month - on - month; from January to June, cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from the previous month and 2.3% month - on - month; from January to June, cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% - On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and up 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points from last week and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year; the daily hot - metal output was 2.4071 million tons, down 15,200 tons from last week and up 40,900 tons year - on - year - On July 31st, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 322.79 million tons, up 530,000 tons from last week and down 66,000 tons year - on - year - On July 31st, the hot - rolled coil inventory in 37 enterprises was 793,000 tons, up 1,300 tons from last week and down 125,100 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in 33 cities was 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons from last week and down 718,500 tons year - on - year; the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4795 million tons, up 27,900 tons from last week and down 843,600 tons year - on - year [48][51][56] 3.4.2 Demand - Side Changes - In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4% - From January to June 2025, cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 163.2961 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; for household refrigerators, it was 50.6416 million units, unchanged year - on - year; for household washing machines, it was 58.6036 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil futures has risen, with cost support from the upward movement of iron ore and coking coal. Although the weekly output of hot-rolled coils has slightly declined, the capacity utilization rate remains relatively high. The apparent demand has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Considering the macro - economic situation and industry fundamentals, while chasing high prices of the HC2510 contract requires caution, buying on dips can still be considered, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of July 11, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3273 yuan/ton (+72), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+50). The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 323.14 million tons (-5), the apparent demand was 322.51 million tons (-1.86, -6.24% year - on - year), the total inventory was 345.56 million tons (+0.63, -78.56 million tons year - on - year), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week and 22.94 percentage points from last year [7] b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. Domestically, 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative, and the State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils slightly declined, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. The factory inventory decreased and the social inventory increased, with a total inventory increase of 0.63 million tons. The apparent demand slightly declined but remained above 3.2 million tons. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore and coking coal prices rose, providing cost support. The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants continued to decline. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2510 contract moved upward, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA continued to rise, and the red bars expanded. - **Strategy suggestion**: On the macro - level, anti - involution promotes the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity and improves market sentiment. On the industrial level, the output of hot - rolled coils remains high, the terminal demand is resilient, and the cost support from the rebound of coking coal and iron ore is strengthened. Chasing high prices of the HC2510 contract requires caution, and buying on dips can still be considered [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract moved upward and was stronger than the HC2601 contract. On July 11, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [15] b. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On July 11, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,587 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0 tons. The net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 10,042 lots, an increase of 51,561 lots from the previous week [21] c. Spot Price - On July 11, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 33,309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On July 11, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [25] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On July 11, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [34] b. Shipping and Arrival Volumes - From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total global iron ore shipping volume was 29.949 billion tons, a decrease of 3.627 billion tons from the previous period. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.65 billion tons, a decrease of 4.173 billion tons from the previous period. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 25.355 billion tons, an increase of 1.22 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 24.839 billion tons, an increase of 1.209 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.12 billion tons, an increase of 1.948 billion tons from the previous period [39] c. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.4689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3901 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 0.0361 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore decreased by 0.931 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 0.5229 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore decreased by 0.7715 million tons. On July 10, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 975,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 67,100 tons [43] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72%, a decrease of 0.48%. The daily coke output was 512,900 tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons; the coke inventory was 595,800 tons, a decrease of 20,200 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 7.5244 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons; and the available days of coking coal were 11.0 days, an increase of 0.6 days [47] 4. Industry Conditions a. Supply Side - **Production Volume**: In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to May, the cumulative crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative steel export volume was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative steel import volume was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [50] - **Blast Furnace Operation**: On July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points from last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 104,000 tons from last week and an increase of 152,000 tons from last year. On July 10, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils from 37 monitored enterprises was 3.2314 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 83,400 tons from last year [53] - **Inventory**: On July 11, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils from 37 monitored enterprises was 778,100 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from last week and a decrease of 147,700 tons from last year. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.6775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 637,900 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4556 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 785,600 tons [58] b. Downstream Demand - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% respectively. From January to May, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% respectively [61] - **Household Appliance Industry**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the production of household refrigerators was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; and the production of household washing machines was 49.115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [61]