Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal and coke futures indicate a potential for price increases, driven by supply constraints and demand stability, with expectations for further price hikes in the near future [6] Supply - As of July 31, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 648,000 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.2%. The average daily production from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%, resulting in a total production of 1,118,000 tons per day, which remained stable week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,407,100 tons, down by 15,200 tons compared to the previous period. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57%. The profitability rate for steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73% [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total inventory of coke was 9.712 million tons, an increase of 0.8% week-on-week. The inventory at independent coking enterprises was 736,000 tons, down by 6.5%, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.267 million tons, down by 13.3%. Port inventory was 2.709 million tons, up by 20.6% [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke nationwide was -45 yuan. In Shanxi, the average profit was -32 yuan per ton, while in Shandong, it was 18 yuan per ton. Inner Mongolia reported an average loss of 105 yuan per ton, and Hebei had an average profit of 13 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - The fifth round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with an increase of 50 to 55 yuan per ton. The price for premium dry coke is now 1,475 yuan per ton, and further price increases are anticipated. Supply recovery from coal mines has not met expectations, and while coking limits have been lifted, production is constrained due to losses. Downstream demand remains supportive, with expectations for a slight decline in pig iron production in August [6]

【期现】 【供给】 截至7月10日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量64.1万吨/日，周环比-0.3，247家钢厂焦炭日均产量47.2 万吨/日，周环比-0.3，总产量为111.3万吨/日，周环比-0.5。 【需求】 截至7月10日，247家钢厂日均铁水239.81万吨/日，周环比-1.04万吨/日，折算焦炭需求114.19万吨/日， 日均供需差环比-0.50万吨/日。焦炭需求下降，表需再次下降。 【库存】 截至7月10日，焦炭总库存986.6万吨，周环比+5.0，其中，全样本独立焦企焦炭库存93.1万吨，周环 比-9.0，247家钢厂焦炭库存637.8万吨，周环比+0.3，港口库存255.7万吨，周环比+13.7。 【观点】 昨日焦炭期货震荡下跌走势，截至7月16日收盘，焦炭主力2509合约下跌19.5（-1.29%）至1494.5，焦炭 远月2601合约下跌22.0（-1.41%）至1538.5，9-1价差走强至-44.0。主流钢厂6月23日第四轮提降落地 后，主流焦化企业开启首轮提涨，但钢厂主张周五接受，幅度改为50/55元/吨，定价权仍在钢厂。吕梁 准一级冶金焦出厂价格报990元/吨，环比持平，对应厂库仓 ...