智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，2025年以来焦煤期现价格持续下跌，截至5月30日大商所焦 煤期货活跃合约结算价741.5元/吨，创8年来新低，主要受供增需弱基本面影响。当前国内黑色需求未 有明显提振，蒙煤通关量提升加剧价格竞争，市场进入成本支撑与需求萎缩的博弈阶段。当前国内及蒙 古焦煤价格临近成本线，供给或有缩量支撑焦煤价格，焦煤加速探底或接近底部，推荐关注平煤股份 (601666.SH)、淮北矿业(600985.SH)、山西焦煤(000983.SZ)等标的。 开源证券主要观点如下： 供增需弱致焦煤基本面承压，焦煤期货价格创8年来新低 2025年以来，国内焦煤价格持续下跌，截至2025年5月30日，京唐港主焦煤库提价自2024年底的1520元/ 吨下跌至1270元/吨，跌幅达16.4%，大商所焦煤期货活跃合约结算价则自2024年底的1157元/吨下跌至 741.5元/吨，跌幅达35.9%，并创8年来新低。焦煤期现价格下跌，主要系供-需-库存基本面偏弱运行影 响。 从供给端来看，产量方面，受2024年一季度焦煤主产地山西省煤炭产量低基数影响，2025年以来山西原 煤产量增长明显，并带动焦煤产量同比提升 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stabilization of coal prices and the reduction of inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim, suggesting a favorable outlook for coal allocation [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for coking coal are under pressure, with domestic prices nearing production costs, indicating potential for production cuts if prices decline further [5] - The report highlights that the current market is in a phase of competition between cost support and weakened demand, particularly with increased imports of Mongolian coal [4] Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - Domestic coking coal production has increased significantly due to a low base in early 2024, with Shanxi province's output rising by approximately 16.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [8] - As of May 30, 2025, the average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was about 750,700 tons, translating to an estimated total production of around 170 million tons, an increase of approximately 10.2 million tons year-on-year [3][8] Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen a significant decline, with prices at the port dropping from 1,520 CNY/ton at the end of 2024 to 1,270 CNY/ton by May 30, 2025, a decrease of 16.4% [5] - The futures price for coking coal has also fallen sharply, reaching a new low of 741.5 CNY/ton, down 35.9% from the end of 2024 [5] Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand for steel has shown seasonal improvement post-Spring Festival, but recent trends indicate a decline in iron and steel production as demand fluctuates [4][19] - The apparent demand for major steel products has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year as of May 23, 2025 [18] Inventory Levels - As of the end of May 2025, the inventory of raw coal at 523 sample mines reached 7.662 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 71.6% [19] - The current inventory situation indicates a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream depletion [4] Competitive Landscape - The price of Mongolian coking coal remains competitive, with the cost of Mongolian coal being approximately 1,210 CNY/ton compared to 1,230 CNY/ton for domestic low-sulfur coking coal [4] - The report suggests that if prices for Mongolian coal continue to decline towards production costs, imports may decrease, potentially supporting domestic coal prices [5]

煤炭 煤炭 2025 年 06 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤价企稳和环渤海港去库，否极泰 来重视煤炭配置 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.2 《煤炭供给最重要变量：疆煤受价降 而减量—行业点评报告》-2025.5.30 《供-需-库存基本面迎利好，否极泰来 重 视 煤 炭 配 置 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.5.28 国内及蒙古焦煤临近成本线，焦煤加速探底或近底部 ——行业点评报告 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 供增需弱致焦煤基本面承压，焦煤期货价格创 8 年来新低 2025年以来，国内焦煤价格持续下跌，截至2025年5月30日，京唐港主焦煤库提 价自2024年底的1520元/吨下跌至1270元/吨，跌幅达16.4%，大商所焦煤期货活 跃合约结算价则自2024年底的1157元/吨下跌至741.5元/吨，跌幅达35.9%，并创8 年来新低。焦煤期 ...