1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the most convenient deliverable for coking coal, Mongolian 5 clean coal (Tangshan area), has a premium of over 250 yuan/ton, with a warehouse receipt price of around 1200 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the warehouse receipt cost is about 1150 yuan/ton, close to the price of the near - month contract [2]. - The core driver of coking coal lies in policy factors. The policy side controls coal prices within a reasonable range through measures such as ensuring supply, safety inspections, and strict crackdowns on over - production. Additionally, the weakening steel price restricts the upside space of coking coal prices [2]. - The future story of coking coal revolves around the supply - side policies of coking coal. The policy side provides a floor, while the weak steel price limits the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The design of the futures delivery system makes the price of the near - month contract converge to the spot price. The warehouse receipt cost can be regarded as an anchor for the futures price and is worthy of investors' attention [3]. - The most convenient deliverable for coking coal futures is Mongolian 5 clean coal. If delivered in Tangshan and other places, there will be a premium of 170 yuan/ton, and combined with the quality premium, the premium will exceed 250 yuan/ton [3]. - The high premium rate makes it difficult for traders to resell the goods after taking delivery, resulting in weak willingness of coking coal buyers to take delivery. The Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the coking coal delivery quality standard on November 4, which will reduce the premium of each coking coal variety and increase the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 clean coal more than that of Shanxi coking coal, reducing the delivery cost - effectiveness of Mongolian coal to some extent [4][6]. - Due to year - end safety inspections, strict crackdowns on over - production, and a reduction in import quotas, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have continued to rise. The market price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal has risen from 1460 yuan/ton to 1540 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt price is around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the prices of coking coal contracts 2511 and 2512 are around 1150 yuan/ton (reference time: 2025/11/12) [7]. 3.2 Core Driving Factors of Coal Prices - In the black metal industry chain, the finished steel is weak this year, and the steel price is difficult to rise. The demand for steel in the building materials sector has decreased, and although there is a certain increase in the demand for coil products and steel exports, the increase cannot make up for the decrease in the building materials sector. With limited narrative space on the demand side, the market focus has shifted to the supply side [9]. - The core driver of coking coal price trends is policy - oriented. Policy meetings, documents, and coal mine safety accidents since July have shown that each inflection point of the coking coal market depends on policy - end drivers. The state effectively regulates coal prices to keep them fluctuating within a certain range [11]. - In addition to policy - end impacts, the steel price also restricts the upside of coking coal prices. The weak demand in the finished steel end makes it difficult for the main coking coal contract price to break through the [1330] position in the second half of the year [13]. 3.3 Future Market Suggestions - It is believed that the coking coal price will remain range - bound for the rest of the year. The future story revolves around the policy side, with the policy side providing a floor and the weak steel price limiting the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [15]. - For long - position investors, it is recommended to try to go long at the warehouse receipt cost level, and pay attention to the changes in the steel mill's hot metal production and coking coal supply. For short - position investors, they need to wait for the right opportunity, consider light - position layout at the high end of the range, and then gradually increase the position. They also need to pay attention to coal mine safety incidents and this year's safety inspection news. For hedgers and arbitrageurs, they should comprehensively consider warehouse receipts, storage, and capital occupation, and seize arbitrage opportunities in the volatile market [15].