1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the most convenient deliverable for coking coal, Mongolian 5 clean coal (Tangshan area), has a premium of over 250 yuan/ton, with a warehouse receipt price of around 1200 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the warehouse receipt cost is about 1150 yuan/ton, close to the price of the near - month contract [2]. - The core driver of coking coal lies in policy factors. The policy side controls coal prices within a reasonable range through measures such as ensuring supply, safety inspections, and strict crackdowns on over - production. Additionally, the weakening steel price restricts the upside space of coking coal prices [2]. - The future story of coking coal revolves around the supply - side policies of coking coal. The policy side provides a floor, while the weak steel price limits the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The design of the futures delivery system makes the price of the near - month contract converge to the spot price. The warehouse receipt cost can be regarded as an anchor for the futures price and is worthy of investors' attention [3]. - The most convenient deliverable for coking coal futures is Mongolian 5 clean coal. If delivered in Tangshan and other places, there will be a premium of 170 yuan/ton, and combined with the quality premium, the premium will exceed 250 yuan/ton [3]. - The high premium rate makes it difficult for traders to resell the goods after taking delivery, resulting in weak willingness of coking coal buyers to take delivery. The Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the coking coal delivery quality standard on November 4, which will reduce the premium of each coking coal variety and increase the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 clean coal more than that of Shanxi coking coal, reducing the delivery cost - effectiveness of Mongolian coal to some extent [4][6]. - Due to year - end safety inspections, strict crackdowns on over - production, and a reduction in import quotas, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have continued to rise. The market price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal has risen from 1460 yuan/ton to 1540 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt price is around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the prices of coking coal contracts 2511 and 2512 are around 1150 yuan/ton (reference time: 2025/11/12) [7]. 3.2 Core Driving Factors of Coal Prices - In the black metal industry chain, the finished steel is weak this year, and the steel price is difficult to rise. The demand for steel in the building materials sector has decreased, and although there is a certain increase in the demand for coil products and steel exports, the increase cannot make up for the decrease in the building materials sector. With limited narrative space on the demand side, the market focus has shifted to the supply side [9]. - The core driver of coking coal price trends is policy - oriented. Policy meetings, documents, and coal mine safety accidents since July have shown that each inflection point of the coking coal market depends on policy - end drivers. The state effectively regulates coal prices to keep them fluctuating within a certain range [11]. - In addition to policy - end impacts, the steel price also restricts the upside of coking coal prices. The weak demand in the finished steel end makes it difficult for the main coking coal contract price to break through the [1330] position in the second half of the year [13]. 3.3 Future Market Suggestions - It is believed that the coking coal price will remain range - bound for the rest of the year. The future story revolves around the policy side, with the policy side providing a floor and the weak steel price limiting the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [15]. - For long - position investors, it is recommended to try to go long at the warehouse receipt cost level, and pay attention to the changes in the steel mill's hot metal production and coking coal supply. For short - position investors, they need to wait for the right opportunity, consider light - position layout at the high end of the range, and then gradually increase the position. They also need to pay attention to coal mine safety incidents and this year's safety inspection news. For hedgers and arbitrageurs, they should comprehensively consider warehouse receipts, storage, and capital occupation, and seize arbitrage opportunities in the volatile market [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].

Macroeconomic and Industry Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicated that the timing for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut may be approaching due to a weak U.S. labor market and a lack of sustained inflation driven by tariffs, but a significant cut of 50 basis points is not necessary in September [1] - Bank of America reiterated a bearish outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year, forecasting an average Brent crude oil price of $63.50 per barrel, with a temporary drop below $60 per barrel [1] Commodity Market Updates - As of August 13, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.674 million barrels to 2.4645 million barrels, marking a three-week low; light distillate oil inventory increased by 1.234 million barrels to 1.424 million barrels, a 16-week high; and middle distillate oil inventory rose by 653,000 barrels to 932,600 barrels, a five-week high [1] - On August 14, Mongolia's ETT company auctioned coking coal with a starting price of $119.6 per ton for 5 premium coal, with all 19,200 tons sold at a price of $131.9 per ton, down $8.4 from the previous day [1] - On August 14, steel mills in Hebei raised the procurement price of coke by 70-75 yuan per ton, while prices in the Ordos market increased by 50-55 yuan per ton, effective from midnight on the same day [1] Aluminum and Chemical Industry Insights - As of this week, China's total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, and the operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% due to the end of maintenance at some enterprises [1] - On August 14, domestic port alumina inventory stood at 77,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week [1] - A large alumina plant in Shandong raised the price of ion membrane liquid caustic soda by 32% to 770 yuan per ton, effective from August 14 [1] Soda Ash and Glass Industry Updates - This week, the average utilization rate of sample enterprises producing 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda in China was 84.1%, a decrease of 1.0% from the previous week, with varying loads across different regions [1] - As of August 14, the theoretical profit for China's soda ash production using the Leblanc process was 9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 59.50 yuan per ton [1] - Weekly profits for float glass production varied by fuel type, with natural gas down by 21 yuan per ton, coal gas down by 18.95 yuan per ton, and petroleum coke down by 42.86 yuan per ton [1] Agricultural Product Insights - This week, the physical inventory of red dates at 36 sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from the previous week, with reduced arrival volumes in sales areas leading to stronger spot prices as some inland merchants returned to Xinjiang for sourcing [1] - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 545,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]