焦煤期货回调

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焦煤期货狂飙现货却现分歧,钢厂采购趋于谨慎,大商所出手稳市|大宗风云
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-13 17:34
Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in coking coal futures has been significant, with prices experiencing sharp fluctuations, including a notable increase of 45% from July 4 to August 13, 2023, reaching a peak of 1328 CNY/ton on August 13 [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures have shown a recovery since August 4, driven by market optimism and supply disruptions due to regulatory measures on overproduction [1][2]. - The current supply of coking coal is affected by ongoing inspections and environmental regulations, leading to reduced production rates in coal mines [2][4]. - As of August 8, the operating rate of domestic coal enterprises was approximately 85.5%, translating to a supply of about 121.7 thousand tons per day, which is lower than the peak in May [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - Prices for high-quality coking coal in Shanxi have increased significantly, with a rise from approximately 990 CNY/ton in early July to around 1310 CNY/ton, marking a 32% increase [3]. - The price of Mongolian coal has also seen a similar trend, rising from 770 CNY/ton to 1010 CNY/ton, reflecting a 31% increase [3]. - Despite the upward trend in futures prices, there is a divergence with spot prices due to slower demand from downstream steel mills, which have seen a decline in daily iron output [3][5]. Group 3: Import and Supply Factors - In the first half of 2025, China imported 52.9 million tons of coking coal, a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%, with Mongolia being the largest supplier [4]. - The import of Mongolian coal has recently declined due to reduced mining capacity, with daily transport volumes dropping from over 1300 trucks to below 1000 [2][4]. - Domestic coal production is expected to face short-term disruptions due to safety measures and production adjustments, but overall annual production targets remain unaffected [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented risk control measures in response to the volatility in coking coal futures, including limits on daily opening positions for certain contracts [7]. - The market is closely monitoring supply changes, particularly potential reductions in production from mid-August to early September, which could impact future price movements [8]. - Analysts suggest that while coking coal prices have risen significantly, they remain below last year's levels, indicating potential for further increases, albeit with caution regarding short-term corrections [8].