Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the night session on November 25, 2024, the Dalian Commodity Exchange has relaxed the daily open - position limit for coking coal futures, improving the market trading atmosphere. With the growth of trading volume and open interest in coking coal futures, the effectiveness of coking coal open - interest analysis has been enhanced [3][24]. - The total open interest is a common open - interest analysis indicator. A continuous increase in total open interest indicates new funds flowing into the market, significant differences between long and short sides, and intensified competition, usually suggesting the current trend may enter an acceleration phase or a major turning point. A continuous decrease in total open interest means funds are leaving the market, differences between the two sides are shrinking, and the original trend may be nearing the end [3][10][24]. - From January to June 3, 2025, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, and the weak situation accelerated during the new round of China - US tariff war in April, showing the characteristic of increasing open interest while prices fell. Until early June, the market was dominated by the short side, and coking coal futures had a smooth downward trend [3][15][24]. - From June 4 to August 13, coking coal futures stabilized and rebounded. In July, the National Energy Administration launched a coal mine production capacity verification, starting the first shot in the coal industry's anti - involution. On July 24 and 25, the main coking coal contract increased in open interest and price, with a large influx of long - side funds, indicating the market was optimistic about future trends. However, regulatory intervention due to sharp fluctuations in coking coal futures hit market speculation, and the upward trend did not continue [4][16][26]. - From August 13 to mid - November, due to the lack of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry, the strong supply - side expectations for coking coal eased, and the market returned to fundamental games. Weak demand dragged down the market again. Coking coal futures had difficulty rising, and there was also obvious resistance to falling. During this period, the open interest was generally stable, and it slightly shrank when prices reached the edge of the oscillation range, reflecting cautious market sentiment [4][18][26]. - Currently, coking coal futures are in a stage of game between "expectation" and "reality". Although the actual support on the supply side has slowed down, considering the anti - involution background, the downside space for coal prices is expected to be limited. As December approaches, coking coal futures will face the impact of contract roll - over. The 2605 contract has more potential for anti - involution policies and is not restricted by winter heating energy supply guarantee compared with the 2601 contract. Due to the existence of high - cost - performance coking coal warehouse receipts, contracts approaching the delivery month will face more obvious warehouse - receipt pressure, and the pattern of stronger far - month contracts and weaker near - month contracts may deepen [5][23][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Preface - In 2021, the sharp fluctuations in coking coal futures led to exchange risk - control measures. In the strictest stage, non - futures company members or clients were restricted to a maximum of 50 daily open positions in each coking coal futures contract. In recent years, the Dalian Commodity Exchange has gradually relaxed the trading limits for coking coal futures. Since November 26, 2024, the daily open - position limit for each coking coal futures contract has been relaxed to 2,000 lots. In 2025, the trading activity of coking coal futures gradually increased, and on October 29, the total open interest of all coking coal contracts reached a record high of 986,000 lots [9]. 1 Total Open Interest Indicator - Total open interest represents the cumulative scale of all open contracts. A continuous increase in total open interest indicates new funds flowing into the market, reflecting significant differences between long and short sides on future price trends, and the current price trend may enter an acceleration phase. A continuous decrease in total open interest means funds are leaving the market, differences between the two sides are shrinking, and the original trend may be nearing the end [10]. - Different combinations of price trends and open - interest changes have different market implications and sentiments. For example, rising prices with increasing open interest mean long - side funds are actively entering the market, while falling prices with increasing open interest mean short - side funds are actively entering the market [11][13]. 2 Price and Open - Interest Trends of Coking Coal Futures in 2025 - **Downward Phase (January 1 - June 3, 2025)**: High production and imports of coking coal, weak downstream demand, and low expectations for domestic steady - growth policies led to a continuous decline in the main coking coal contract. The weak situation accelerated during the new round of China - US tariff war in April, showing the characteristic of increasing open interest while prices fell. The market was dominated by the short side until early June [15]. - **Upward Phase (June 4 - August 13, 2025)**: After coal mine accidents around the Dragon Boat Festival and the National Energy Administration's coal mine production capacity verification in July, coking coal prices rebounded. In late July, the main coking coal contract first decreased in open interest while rising, then increased in open interest and price. However, regulatory intervention due to sharp fluctuations hit market speculation, and the upward trend did not continue. After that, coking coal entered an interval - oscillation phase [16][17][26]. - **Interval - Oscillation Phase (August 13 - mid - November 2025)**: Due to the lack of new anti - involution measures and the emphasis on winter heating energy supply guarantee, the strong supply - side expectations for coking coal eased. The market returned to fundamental games, and coking coal futures had difficulty rising and falling. The open interest was generally stable, and it slightly shrank when prices reached the edge of the oscillation range, reflecting cautious market sentiment [4][18][26]. 3 Conclusion - The relaxation of the daily open - position limit for coking coal futures by the Dalian Commodity Exchange since November 25, 2024, has improved the effectiveness of coking coal open - interest analysis. - The price and open - interest trends of coking coal futures in 2025 are divided into three phases: a downward phase from January to June 3, an upward phase from June 4 to August 13, and an interval - oscillation phase from August 13 to mid - November. - Currently, coking coal futures are in a game between "expectation" and "reality", and as December approaches, they will face the impact of contract roll - over, with the pattern of stronger far - month contracts and weaker near - month contracts likely to deepen [24][26][27].