能源、化工反内卷专场 20251204 摘要 2025 年上半年煤炭市场因价格下跌受政府政策干预，国家能源局 7 月 发布通知限制煤矿超额生产，有效稳定了市场价格。截至 2025 年 12 月，北港动力煤指数达 835 元/吨，高于年初约 30 元，现货成交价约 850 元/吨。 预计 2026 年一季度动力煤和焦煤市场将保持平稳，短期内或有小幅回 调，但整体趋势向上。政策调控和稳定的供应端将避免类似 2021 年的 剧烈波动，煤炭价格预计维持在合理区间。 2025 年政府工作报告强调整治内卷式竞争，通过安全督查等规范生产 行为稳定供应，与 2016 年供给侧改革不同，当前政策旨在保障行业平 稳运行，维护企业利润水平，不会引发剧烈波动。 2025 年 1 月至 9 月全国原煤产量同比增长 2%，但主要产区如山西、陕 西、内蒙古、新疆 9 月产量同比下降，表明主产区增速放缓，有助于市 场趋稳，防止过度竞争。 煤炭价格上涨主要由供应端扰动造成，而非需求增加。2023-2024 年 现货市场中间环节库存低，贸易商参与度低，导致价格波动剧烈，贸易 商持货意愿差，放大了价格弹性。 Q&A 煤炭行业反内卷的背景是什么？ ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the night session on November 25, 2024, the Dalian Commodity Exchange has relaxed the daily open - position limit for coking coal futures, improving the market trading atmosphere. With the growth of trading volume and open interest in coking coal futures, the effectiveness of coking coal open - interest analysis has been enhanced [3][24]. - The total open interest is a common open - interest analysis indicator. A continuous increase in total open interest indicates new funds flowing into the market, significant differences between long and short sides, and intensified competition, usually suggesting the current trend may enter an acceleration phase or a major turning point. A continuous decrease in total open interest means funds are leaving the market, differences between the two sides are shrinking, and the original trend may be nearing the end [3][10][24]. - From January to June 3, 2025, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, and the weak situation accelerated during the new round of China - US tariff war in April, showing the characteristic of increasing open interest while prices fell. Until early June, the market was dominated by the short side, and coking coal futures had a smooth downward trend [3][15][24]. - From June 4 to August 13, coking coal futures stabilized and rebounded. In July, the National Energy Administration launched a coal mine production capacity verification, starting the first shot in the coal industry's anti - involution. On July 24 and 25, the main coking coal contract increased in open interest and price, with a large influx of long - side funds, indicating the market was optimistic about future trends. However, regulatory intervention due to sharp fluctuations in coking coal futures hit market speculation, and the upward trend did not continue [4][16][26]. - From August 13 to mid - November, due to the lack of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry, the strong supply - side expectations for coking coal eased, and the market returned to fundamental games. Weak demand dragged down the market again. Coking coal futures had difficulty rising, and there was also obvious resistance to falling. During this period, the open interest was generally stable, and it slightly shrank when prices reached the edge of the oscillation range, reflecting cautious market sentiment [4][18][26]. - Currently, coking coal futures are in a stage of game between "expectation" and "reality". Although the actual support on the supply side has slowed down, considering the anti - involution background, the downside space for coal prices is expected to be limited. As December approaches, coking coal futures will face the impact of contract roll - over. The 2605 contract has more potential for anti - involution policies and is not restricted by winter heating energy supply guarantee compared with the 2601 contract. Due to the existence of high - cost - performance coking coal warehouse receipts, contracts approaching the delivery month will face more obvious warehouse - receipt pressure, and the pattern of stronger far - month contracts and weaker near - month contracts may deepen [5][23][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Preface - In 2021, the sharp fluctuations in coking coal futures led to exchange risk - control measures. In the strictest stage, non - futures company members or clients were restricted to a maximum of 50 daily open positions in each coking coal futures contract. In recent years, the Dalian Commodity Exchange has gradually relaxed the trading limits for coking coal futures. Since November 26, 2024, the daily open - position limit for each coking coal futures contract has been relaxed to 2,000 lots. In 2025, the trading activity of coking coal futures gradually increased, and on October 29, the total open interest of all coking coal contracts reached a record high of 986,000 lots [9]. 1 Total Open Interest Indicator - Total open interest represents the cumulative scale of all open contracts. A continuous increase in total open interest indicates new funds flowing into the market, reflecting significant differences between long and short sides on future price trends, and the current price trend may enter an acceleration phase. A continuous decrease in total open interest means funds are leaving the market, differences between the two sides are shrinking, and the original trend may be nearing the end [10]. - Different combinations of price trends and open - interest changes have different market implications and sentiments. For example, rising prices with increasing open interest mean long - side funds are actively entering the market, while falling prices with increasing open interest mean short - side funds are actively entering the market [11][13]. 2 Price and Open - Interest Trends of Coking Coal Futures in 2025 - **Downward Phase (January 1 - June 3, 2025)**: High production and imports of coking coal, weak downstream demand, and low expectations for domestic steady - growth policies led to a continuous decline in the main coking coal contract. The weak situation accelerated during the new round of China - US tariff war in April, showing the characteristic of increasing open interest while prices fell. The market was dominated by the short side until early June [15]. - **Upward Phase (June 4 - August 13, 2025)**: After coal mine accidents around the Dragon Boat Festival and the National Energy Administration's coal mine production capacity verification in July, coking coal prices rebounded. In late July, the main coking coal contract first decreased in open interest while rising, then increased in open interest and price. However, regulatory intervention due to sharp fluctuations hit market speculation, and the upward trend did not continue. After that, coking coal entered an interval - oscillation phase [16][17][26]. - **Interval - Oscillation Phase (August 13 - mid - November 2025)**: Due to the lack of new anti - involution measures and the emphasis on winter heating energy supply guarantee, the strong supply - side expectations for coking coal eased. The market returned to fundamental games, and coking coal futures had difficulty rising and falling. The open interest was generally stable, and it slightly shrank when prices reached the edge of the oscillation range, reflecting cautious market sentiment [4][18][26]. 3 Conclusion - The relaxation of the daily open - position limit for coking coal futures by the Dalian Commodity Exchange since November 25, 2024, has improved the effectiveness of coking coal open - interest analysis. - The price and open - interest trends of coking coal futures in 2025 are divided into three phases: a downward phase from January to June 3, an upward phase from June 4 to August 13, and an interval - oscillation phase from August 13 to mid - November. - Currently, coking coal futures are in a game between "expectation" and "reality", and as December approaches, they will face the impact of contract roll - over, with the pattern of stronger far - month contracts and weaker near - month contracts likely to deepen [24][26][27].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in China, particularly its efforts to combat "involution" and stabilize prices [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing electricity and coal prices to prevent harmful competition, aiming to raise unreasonable low prices to reasonable levels while avoiding price surges [1][3]. - The coal industry's strategy to combat involution consists of two phases: reducing production to raise prices and eliminating excess capacity to adjust the industry structure. Currently, the industry is in the first phase, focusing on production cuts to restore profitability [1][4]. - Supply-side reforms align with the goals of combating involution, encompassing both production cuts and capacity reduction, which are essential for long-term stability [5]. - The reduction of capacity and structural adjustments are closely linked to carbon neutrality policies, as coal consumption is expected to decline gradually. This necessitates capacity reduction to match changing demand and ensure sustainable development [6]. Future Predictions - China is projected to reach its peak carbon emissions from thermal power by 2027 and from the coal industry by 2028. By around 2030, there may be an oversupply of capacity, requiring policy adjustments to address this [7]. - The coal industry has undergone significant policy changes and market fluctuations since 2010, with a notable recovery in profitability and price stability achieved through supply-side reforms and capacity reductions [8]. Important but Overlooked Content - The SASAC's current approach to price control focuses on maintaining reserve and peak-shaving capacity, allowing for flexible adjustments in production rates to stabilize prices, contrasting with the 2016 strategy of aggressive capacity withdrawal [9]. - The reasonable coal price is estimated at 750 RMB/ton, with potential short-term fluctuations due to policy execution uncertainties, possibly rising to 800-860 RMB/ton before stabilizing back to 750 RMB/ton [10][11]. - The upcoming policies expected to be introduced by the end of this year or early next year will further drive the coal industry's capacity reduction and structural adjustments [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the coal industry Core Insights - The coal production in China has remained high since 2025, with significant growth in Shanxi and Xinjiang, while the overall coal supply is expected to remain stable compared to last year due to anticipated production cuts in the second half of the year [6][7] - Coal consumption has been weak, particularly in the power sector, where the rise of clean energy has negatively impacted thermal power demand, leading to a decline in coal consumption [14][15] - The coal price has been on a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with a slight rebound observed in July, but the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain [21][27] - The profitability of coal enterprises has significantly decreased, with some companies experiencing over a 50% drop in net profits or even losses [27][28] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the reduction of production in loss-making coal mines, impacting the overall supply dynamics [12][35] Summary by Sections Key Focus Areas - Domestic coal production has remained high, with a total of 2.78 billion tons produced from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [7] - The coal import volume has decreased, with 257 million tons imported from January to July 2025, a decline of 12.96% year-on-year [9] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to lead to a contraction in raw coal production in the second half of the year [12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall coal supply is expected to remain stable in 2025, with a balance between production and consumption [14] - The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, but the shift towards clean energy has led to a decline in thermal power generation [15] - The steel industry, another major consumer, has also seen reduced demand due to a slowdown in construction and real estate [16] Price Trends - Coal prices have shown a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in coking coal prices compared to thermal coal [21][27] - The average net profit of sample coal enterprises decreased by 27.03% in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging profitability environment [28] Financial Health of Coal Enterprises - The debt levels of coal enterprises have increased, with a slight rise in financial leverage and a weakening of debt repayment indicators [30] - The operating cash flow of sample enterprises decreased by 33.28% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the impact of declining coal prices [30][31] Conclusion - The coal industry is facing significant challenges, with weak demand, declining prices, and increasing debt levels, leading to a further weakening of profitability and financial health [35]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability in Q3 2025, with prices rebounding from a low of 610 RMB/ton in Q2 to around 710 RMB/ton due to unexpected growth in summer electricity demand and intervention from the National Energy Administration [1][2] - National raw coal production saw a year-on-year decline in July and August 2025, with the largest drop in Xinjiang [1][4] - Import volumes continued to decline due to narrowing price differentials, with a 23% drop in July and a reduced 6.8% drop in August [1][4] Demand Dynamics - Strong demand was noted in Q3, with total electricity consumption in July increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and urban and rural residential electricity consumption rising by 18% [1][5] - Cement production decreased, while pig iron production remained stable, and chemical product output continued to grow [1][5] Price Trends and Financial Impact - The average price of thermal coal at ports in Q3 was 669 RMB/ton, up 38 RMB/ton from Q2, alleviating industry pressure and improving profitability [1][6] - The average price of coking coal rose to approximately 1,545 RMB/ton, a 230 RMB/ton increase from Q2, benefiting companies with a higher proportion of spot sales [1][8] Company Performance - Major companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy showed stable financial performance improvements in Q3 [1][10] - China Shenhua is expected to achieve a profit of 13.4 billion RMB in Q3, a 6% increase from Q2, with an annual profit forecast of 49.5 billion RMB [1][10] - Shaanxi Coal's profit is projected to rise by 72% to 5 billion RMB in Q3, with an annual forecast of 17 billion RMB [1][10] - China Coal Energy anticipates a profit of 4.1 billion RMB in Q3, a 10% increase from Q2, with an annual forecast of 16 billion RMB [1][11] Future Outlook - The coal supply-demand balance is expected to improve in 2026, with an upward adjustment in coal prices, leading to greater earnings elasticity for most companies [1][3][7] - The forecast for coal prices in the coming months is around 700 RMB, with potential peaks at 750 RMB [1][21] - Companies with high dividend yields and strong recovery potential, such as China Shenhua and Lu'an Mining, are recommended for monitoring [1][21] Additional Insights - The performance of coking coal companies is expected to improve in Q4, although current valuations remain high [1][18] - Lu'an Mining, with a significant portion of its sales linked to market prices, is projected to achieve a profit of 8.8 billion RMB in Q3, a 28% year-on-year increase [1][19] - The overall performance of thermal and coking coal companies in Q3 showed a 10%-20% increase, with high elasticity companies achieving even higher growth [1][20]

Group 1 - The report highlights a rebound in coal prices during the peak season, driven by improved demand for thermal coal and the recovery of coking coal prices due to better steel profits [2][4][45] - The supply side shows a slowdown in domestic production growth and a year-on-year decline in import volumes, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][40][79] - The report emphasizes the impact of seasonal adjustments in railway freight rates, which are expected to enhance the volatility of coal prices [11][12][79] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the steel industry maintains a resilient demand for coal, with low inventory levels potentially supporting price rebounds [46][51][72] - The report forecasts a marginal improvement in thermal coal demand as the winter heating season approaches, with expected price levels between 700-750 yuan/ton [79] - Recommendations include undervalued elastic stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, and Lu'an Energy, as well as stable high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - to long - term trend of coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but there is a certain callback pressure on the black futures market in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - risk events at home and abroad such as parade production restrictions, Fed rate - cut games, and the Fourth Plenary Session [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for coking coal is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the predicted monthly price range is 1600 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For raw material procurement, when coking enterprises have a coking coal replenishment plan but haven't determined the purchase price and are worried about price increases affecting profits, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract JM2601 at an entry range of (1150, 1200) [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 2382 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 78386 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 lots, coking coal remained unchanged at 800 lots, coke increased by 20 lots, ferrosilicon increased by 373 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 87 sheets [3] 3.4 Core Contradictions - Supply - side disturbances such as over - production inspections in Shanxi coal mines and the "276 - working - day" policy have emerged. The resumption of production in coal mines has slowed down, and "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. There are also disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, strengthening the expectation of reduced coking coal supply. In the off - season, macro factors have a greater impact on the futures market. The trading focus of far - month contracts lies in unfalsifiable policy expectations, and "anti - involution" may be hyped repeatedly. Steel mill profits are still resilient, but attention should be paid to the impact of Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on the over - heated sentiment in the coking coal and coke market [4] 3.5 Bullish Interpretations - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [4] 3.6 Bearish Interpretations - The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the production increase space for mines in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, and the procurement demand for coking coal and coke is rigid. However, the import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on future arrivals. The apparent demand for rebar is lower than expected, and there is pressure on the actual end of finished products. The Dalian Commodity Exchange has imposed position limits on the main coking coal contract, which is expected to reduce the speculation degree of coking coal [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke contracts, the spread between different contracts, and indicators such as coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio have all changed to varying degrees [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties remained mostly unchanged, with only slight changes in some prices. The import and export profits of coking coal and coke also changed, and the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal decreased [8][9]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have shown significant gains, with Mongolian Coking Coal rising by 3.69% to HKD 8.42, China Coal Energy up by 2.85% to HKD 10.47, Yanzhou Coal Mining increasing by 2.85% to HKD 9.75, and China Shenhua Energy rising by 2.78% to HKD 37.6 [1] - According to a report from Founder Securities, the tightening of supply in the coal industry has become an investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - As temperatures rise and electricity generation from thermal power plants increases, the average daily coal consumption at thermal power plants is rapidly increasing, indicating a potential improvement in the coal supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan believes that the impact of warm winter weather on total demand has passed, and electricity consumption is rapidly recovering, with coal demand starting to grow by over 1% since May [2] - The recent statements from the National Energy Administration regarding the "anti-involution" in the coal industry, combined with the pressure on profitability at the price level of 650 CNY/ton, are expected to constrain production, leading to a stable but declining total supply [2] - The combination of reduced imports and the current supply-demand fundamentals suggests that the bottom of the coal market may have been reached [2]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry, particularly in the context of recent policy changes aimed at addressing issues of low-price competition and market order [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Support**: The revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and guidance from the Central Financial Committee provide legal and policy support for the coal industry to combat low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2]. - **Supply-Demand Shift**: The coal industry's supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to wide, with an increase in the release capacity of high-quality production. However, demand recovery is slow due to changes in electricity consumption structure, leading to a continuous decline in coal prices [1][2]. - **Local Government Dependency**: Local governments heavily rely on coal revenue and taxes, often resorting to increasing production to compensate for price drops, which exacerbates unhealthy competition [1][3]. - **Energy Bureau Document 108**: This document aims to regulate excessive production and ensure reasonable pricing to meet local GDP assessment requirements. It includes checks on production capacity and is expected to influence market behavior significantly [2][3][6]. - **276 Work System**: The 276 work system is not a mandatory policy but a voluntary measure taken by mining companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency. The Energy Bureau is conducting nationwide self-inspections to verify production data [4][5]. - **Future Policy Impact**: The upcoming policies will depend on market fluctuations and coal price trends. If prices remain reasonable, the approach may be more flexible; otherwise, stricter measures will be enforced [6][7]. - **Safety Regulations**: The new coal mine safety regulations set to be implemented in February 2026 will raise construction thresholds for certain mines, leading to a reduction in output from non-compliant mines and potentially tightening supply [7][8]. Market Dynamics - **Price Forecasts**: - The price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate between 750 and 800 RMB per ton, while coking coal prices are projected to rise due to scarcity and demand [12][16][17]. - As of July 31, coking coal prices reached 1,500 RMB, an increase of 330 RMB from June 30, driven by demand and supply constraints [17]. - **Demand Trends**: Despite a high inventory level at power plants, the overall demand for thermal coal remains strong, particularly as the share of thermal power decreases and renewable energy increases [12][14]. Long-term Considerations - **Reserve Capacity**: China has a total coal production capacity of approximately 5 billion tons, with potential reserve capacity estimated between 5.4 to 5.5 billion tons. However, specific guidelines on which capacities can be classified as reserve are still pending [18]. - **Resource Scarcity**: There is a significant scarcity of domestic high-quality coking coal, with limited incremental capacity expected in the coming years. The primary resources are concentrated in Shanxi province [19][20]. Conclusion - The coal industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing prices and ensuring sustainable production practices. The interplay between policy, market dynamics, and resource availability will shape the future landscape of the coal market in China.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On August 7, the main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 21,900 lots, a decrease of 1,274 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The resurgence of anti - involution news in the coal industry improved the coke futures atmosphere, and the main contract rose at the end of the session. In terms of supply and demand, coke supply stabilized this week while demand declined slightly, and the fundamentals still faced some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and pig iron production showed some resilience, with a relatively moderate seasonal decline. Overall, the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news brought back market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [5][34]. - On August 7, the main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 649,400 lots, an increase of 45,809 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.9% week - on - week, with the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt being about 1,126 yuan/ton. Frequent inspections of over - production in Shanxi improved the coking coal futures market atmosphere, and the main contract was running strongly. This week, there was no obvious change in the supply and demand of coking coal, maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lacked support. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominated the market trend. Overall, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected that coking coal futures will maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In July, China imported 35.609 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 2.572 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%; from January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 257.305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [8]. - On August 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - price was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week, 3.52% month - on - month, down 13.02% year - on - year, and down 24.23% compared with the same period [10]. - Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, up 1.43% month - on - month, down 12.35% year - on - year, and down 20.22% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.86% week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, down 2.54% year - on - year, and down 20.69% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,520 yuan/ton, down 0.65% week - on - week, up 2.01% month - on - month, up 2.01% year - on - year, and down 23.62% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, up 7.84% year - on - year, and down 13.16% compared with the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71%, with a high of 1,698.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,627.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 25,627 lots (a decrease of 2,938 lots), and a position of 21,910 lots (a decrease of 1,274 lots) [14]. - The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29%, with a high of 1,254.0 points, a low of 1,185.0 points, a trading volume of 3,371,852 lots (an increase of 749,804 lots), and a position of 649,421 lots (an increase of 45,809 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - Charts include those related to coke inventory (230 independent coking plants, port total, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, emphasizing that the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news restored market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend; for coking coal, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal supply side [34][35].