Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in China, particularly its efforts to combat "involution" and stabilize prices [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing electricity and coal prices to prevent harmful competition, aiming to raise unreasonable low prices to reasonable levels while avoiding price surges [1][3]. - The coal industry's strategy to combat involution consists of two phases: reducing production to raise prices and eliminating excess capacity to adjust the industry structure. Currently, the industry is in the first phase, focusing on production cuts to restore profitability [1][4]. - Supply-side reforms align with the goals of combating involution, encompassing both production cuts and capacity reduction, which are essential for long-term stability [5]. - The reduction of capacity and structural adjustments are closely linked to carbon neutrality policies, as coal consumption is expected to decline gradually. This necessitates capacity reduction to match changing demand and ensure sustainable development [6]. Future Predictions - China is projected to reach its peak carbon emissions from thermal power by 2027 and from the coal industry by 2028. By around 2030, there may be an oversupply of capacity, requiring policy adjustments to address this [7]. - The coal industry has undergone significant policy changes and market fluctuations since 2010, with a notable recovery in profitability and price stability achieved through supply-side reforms and capacity reductions [8]. Important but Overlooked Content - The SASAC's current approach to price control focuses on maintaining reserve and peak-shaving capacity, allowing for flexible adjustments in production rates to stabilize prices, contrasting with the 2016 strategy of aggressive capacity withdrawal [9]. - The reasonable coal price is estimated at 750 RMB/ton, with potential short-term fluctuations due to policy execution uncertainties, possibly rising to 800-860 RMB/ton before stabilizing back to 750 RMB/ton [10][11]. - The upcoming policies expected to be introduced by the end of this year or early next year will further drive the coal industry's capacity reduction and structural adjustments [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the coal industry Core Insights - The coal production in China has remained high since 2025, with significant growth in Shanxi and Xinjiang, while the overall coal supply is expected to remain stable compared to last year due to anticipated production cuts in the second half of the year [6][7] - Coal consumption has been weak, particularly in the power sector, where the rise of clean energy has negatively impacted thermal power demand, leading to a decline in coal consumption [14][15] - The coal price has been on a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with a slight rebound observed in July, but the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain [21][27] - The profitability of coal enterprises has significantly decreased, with some companies experiencing over a 50% drop in net profits or even losses [27][28] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the reduction of production in loss-making coal mines, impacting the overall supply dynamics [12][35] Summary by Sections Key Focus Areas - Domestic coal production has remained high, with a total of 2.78 billion tons produced from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [7] - The coal import volume has decreased, with 257 million tons imported from January to July 2025, a decline of 12.96% year-on-year [9] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to lead to a contraction in raw coal production in the second half of the year [12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall coal supply is expected to remain stable in 2025, with a balance between production and consumption [14] - The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, but the shift towards clean energy has led to a decline in thermal power generation [15] - The steel industry, another major consumer, has also seen reduced demand due to a slowdown in construction and real estate [16] Price Trends - Coal prices have shown a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in coking coal prices compared to thermal coal [21][27] - The average net profit of sample coal enterprises decreased by 27.03% in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging profitability environment [28] Financial Health of Coal Enterprises - The debt levels of coal enterprises have increased, with a slight rise in financial leverage and a weakening of debt repayment indicators [30] - The operating cash flow of sample enterprises decreased by 33.28% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the impact of declining coal prices [30][31] Conclusion - The coal industry is facing significant challenges, with weak demand, declining prices, and increasing debt levels, leading to a further weakening of profitability and financial health [35]

煤炭行业三季报前瞻 20250924 摘要 2025 年第三季度煤炭行业盈利压力缓解，环比上升，受益于夏季用电 高峰需求超预期增长及国家能源局对煤炭行业内卷的介入，煤价从二季 度低点 610 元/吨回升至 710 元/吨左右。 2025 年 7、8 月份全国原煤产量同比下降，新疆降幅最大，山西也出现 下降，内蒙古先降后增，陕西相对稳定。进口方面，受国内外煤价差缩 小影响，进口量持续同比下降，7 月降幅 23%，8 月降幅收窄至 6.8%。 2025 年第三季度需求端强劲，7 月全社会用电量同比增长 8.6%，城乡 居民用电增长 18%，火电单月增速 4.3%。非电领域中，水泥产量下降， 生铁产量稳定，化工产品产量保持增长。 2025 年三季度港口动力煤均价为 669 元/吨，较二季度上涨 38 元/吨， 缓解了行业压力，改善了盈利状况。动力煤长协价格滞后导致相关企业 业绩改善幅度较小，现货占比较高的企业业绩提升更明显。 2025 年三季度港口主焦煤均价约 1,545 元/吨，比二季度上涨 230 元/ 吨，高于一季度。现货为主的焦煤企业业绩提升显著，长协企业改善幅 度较小。中国神华、陕西煤业和中煤能源等龙头企 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 "反内卷"下，看好旺季煤价反弹，带来焦煤及弹性标的业绩修复 2025年8月煤炭行业热点事件复盘及投资策略 证券分析师：严天鹏 A0230524090004 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 闫海 A0230519010004 研究支持： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 联系人： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 2025.09.16 主要内容 2 2. 供给端：国内产量增速放缓，进口量同比 下滑 3. 需求端：动力煤需求边际改善，钢铁利润 改善促使焦煤价格修复 4. 投资分析意见与风险提示 8月热点事件汇总：关注反内卷、印尼及蒙古煤炭行业变化 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 3 资料来源：中国煤炭市场网，多彩蒙古公众号，申万宏源研究 ◼ 8月4日，国家能源局综合司关于开展煤矿智能化技术升级应用试点工作的通知。 ➢ 要点：内容包括：井工煤矿智能掘进系统、井工煤矿智能采煤系统、露天煤矿智能采剥系统、智能选煤 系统、辅助及其他智能系统；数量：每地方（企业）推荐项目一般不超过5个（山西、内蒙古、陕西不超 过10个）。8月6日，山西：煤矿智能化建设制定评定办法 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - to long - term trend of coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but there is a certain callback pressure on the black futures market in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - risk events at home and abroad such as parade production restrictions, Fed rate - cut games, and the Fourth Plenary Session [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for coking coal is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the predicted monthly price range is 1600 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For raw material procurement, when coking enterprises have a coking coal replenishment plan but haven't determined the purchase price and are worried about price increases affecting profits, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract JM2601 at an entry range of (1150, 1200) [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 2382 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 78386 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 lots, coking coal remained unchanged at 800 lots, coke increased by 20 lots, ferrosilicon increased by 373 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 87 sheets [3] 3.4 Core Contradictions - Supply - side disturbances such as over - production inspections in Shanxi coal mines and the "276 - working - day" policy have emerged. The resumption of production in coal mines has slowed down, and "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. There are also disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, strengthening the expectation of reduced coking coal supply. In the off - season, macro factors have a greater impact on the futures market. The trading focus of far - month contracts lies in unfalsifiable policy expectations, and "anti - involution" may be hyped repeatedly. Steel mill profits are still resilient, but attention should be paid to the impact of Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on the over - heated sentiment in the coking coal and coke market [4] 3.5 Bullish Interpretations - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [4] 3.6 Bearish Interpretations - The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the production increase space for mines in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, and the procurement demand for coking coal and coke is rigid. However, the import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on future arrivals. The apparent demand for rebar is lower than expected, and there is pressure on the actual end of finished products. The Dalian Commodity Exchange has imposed position limits on the main coking coal contract, which is expected to reduce the speculation degree of coking coal [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke contracts, the spread between different contracts, and indicators such as coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio have all changed to varying degrees [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties remained mostly unchanged, with only slight changes in some prices. The import and export profits of coking coal and coke also changed, and the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal decreased [8][9]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have shown significant gains, with Mongolian Coking Coal rising by 3.69% to HKD 8.42, China Coal Energy up by 2.85% to HKD 10.47, Yanzhou Coal Mining increasing by 2.85% to HKD 9.75, and China Shenhua Energy rising by 2.78% to HKD 37.6 [1] - According to a report from Founder Securities, the tightening of supply in the coal industry has become an investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - As temperatures rise and electricity generation from thermal power plants increases, the average daily coal consumption at thermal power plants is rapidly increasing, indicating a potential improvement in the coal supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan believes that the impact of warm winter weather on total demand has passed, and electricity consumption is rapidly recovering, with coal demand starting to grow by over 1% since May [2] - The recent statements from the National Energy Administration regarding the "anti-involution" in the coal industry, combined with the pressure on profitability at the price level of 650 CNY/ton, are expected to constrain production, leading to a stable but declining total supply [2] - The combination of reduced imports and the current supply-demand fundamentals suggests that the bottom of the coal market may have been reached [2]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry, particularly in the context of recent policy changes aimed at addressing issues of low-price competition and market order [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Support**: The revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and guidance from the Central Financial Committee provide legal and policy support for the coal industry to combat low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2]. - **Supply-Demand Shift**: The coal industry's supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to wide, with an increase in the release capacity of high-quality production. However, demand recovery is slow due to changes in electricity consumption structure, leading to a continuous decline in coal prices [1][2]. - **Local Government Dependency**: Local governments heavily rely on coal revenue and taxes, often resorting to increasing production to compensate for price drops, which exacerbates unhealthy competition [1][3]. - **Energy Bureau Document 108**: This document aims to regulate excessive production and ensure reasonable pricing to meet local GDP assessment requirements. It includes checks on production capacity and is expected to influence market behavior significantly [2][3][6]. - **276 Work System**: The 276 work system is not a mandatory policy but a voluntary measure taken by mining companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency. The Energy Bureau is conducting nationwide self-inspections to verify production data [4][5]. - **Future Policy Impact**: The upcoming policies will depend on market fluctuations and coal price trends. If prices remain reasonable, the approach may be more flexible; otherwise, stricter measures will be enforced [6][7]. - **Safety Regulations**: The new coal mine safety regulations set to be implemented in February 2026 will raise construction thresholds for certain mines, leading to a reduction in output from non-compliant mines and potentially tightening supply [7][8]. Market Dynamics - **Price Forecasts**: - The price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate between 750 and 800 RMB per ton, while coking coal prices are projected to rise due to scarcity and demand [12][16][17]. - As of July 31, coking coal prices reached 1,500 RMB, an increase of 330 RMB from June 30, driven by demand and supply constraints [17]. - **Demand Trends**: Despite a high inventory level at power plants, the overall demand for thermal coal remains strong, particularly as the share of thermal power decreases and renewable energy increases [12][14]. Long-term Considerations - **Reserve Capacity**: China has a total coal production capacity of approximately 5 billion tons, with potential reserve capacity estimated between 5.4 to 5.5 billion tons. However, specific guidelines on which capacities can be classified as reserve are still pending [18]. - **Resource Scarcity**: There is a significant scarcity of domestic high-quality coking coal, with limited incremental capacity expected in the coming years. The primary resources are concentrated in Shanxi province [19][20]. Conclusion - The coal industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing prices and ensuring sustainable production practices. The interplay between policy, market dynamics, and resource availability will shape the future landscape of the coal market in China.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On August 7, the main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 21,900 lots, a decrease of 1,274 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The resurgence of anti - involution news in the coal industry improved the coke futures atmosphere, and the main contract rose at the end of the session. In terms of supply and demand, coke supply stabilized this week while demand declined slightly, and the fundamentals still faced some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and pig iron production showed some resilience, with a relatively moderate seasonal decline. Overall, the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news brought back market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [5][34]. - On August 7, the main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 649,400 lots, an increase of 45,809 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.9% week - on - week, with the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt being about 1,126 yuan/ton. Frequent inspections of over - production in Shanxi improved the coking coal futures market atmosphere, and the main contract was running strongly. This week, there was no obvious change in the supply and demand of coking coal, maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lacked support. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominated the market trend. Overall, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected that coking coal futures will maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In July, China imported 35.609 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 2.572 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%; from January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 257.305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [8]. - On August 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - price was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week, 3.52% month - on - month, down 13.02% year - on - year, and down 24.23% compared with the same period [10]. - Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, up 1.43% month - on - month, down 12.35% year - on - year, and down 20.22% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.86% week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, down 2.54% year - on - year, and down 20.69% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,520 yuan/ton, down 0.65% week - on - week, up 2.01% month - on - month, up 2.01% year - on - year, and down 23.62% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, up 7.84% year - on - year, and down 13.16% compared with the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71%, with a high of 1,698.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,627.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 25,627 lots (a decrease of 2,938 lots), and a position of 21,910 lots (a decrease of 1,274 lots) [14]. - The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29%, with a high of 1,254.0 points, a low of 1,185.0 points, a trading volume of 3,371,852 lots (an increase of 749,804 lots), and a position of 649,421 lots (an increase of 45,809 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - Charts include those related to coke inventory (230 independent coking plants, port total, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, emphasizing that the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news restored market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend; for coking coal, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal supply side [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The black - series commodity futures were generally bullish on August 6, 2025. The prices of coking coal and coke were strongly supported. The anti - involution expectation in the coal industry and supply - side disturbances were likely to last until around the National Day. The fundamentals of coke showed a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly, but the expectation of further price increases was weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Overview - On August 6, the overall black - series commodity futures were bullish. The closing price of rebar was 3234 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 794.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke rose, with coking coal leading the gain by over 6% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: Market rumors about the investigation of over - production in Shanxi coal mines from January to June reignited the "anti - involution" expectation in the coal industry. The expectation of production restrictions before the September 3 parade was strengthening, and rumors such as the 276 - working - day notice and the end of the coal supply guarantee policy shrank the supply expectation. In reality, coal mines had good sales, and the pit - mouth coal prices remained firm. With high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production, the rigid demand for coking coal was strong, and inventories were low. Last week, the inventories of 523 sample mines, coal - washing plants, and port - imported coking coal decreased, while the inventories of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased [1]. - **Coke**: On August 4, steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places raised the coke purchase prices. With the high daily pig - iron output of steel mills and the positive purchase attitude of most steel mills and the trading sector, the inventories of independent coke enterprises decreased to a 9 - month low. Supported by cost and demand, the fundamentals were in a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly. However, as steel mills' attitudes were clear and the trading sector started to sell, the expectation of further price increases weakened [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The prices of coking coal and coke futures were affected by market sentiment. After the previous sharp rise, the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, and price support remained. The anti - involution expectation was repeated, and supply - side disturbances in coal mines were expected to last until around the National Day [1].

Group 1 - Coal stocks have shown significant gains, with China Shenhua rising 3.44% to HKD 36.7, Yanzhou Coal increasing 3.13% to HKD 9.56, Mongolian Energy up 2.99% to HKD 0.69, and China Coal Energy rising 2.09% to HKD 10.24 [1] - The fifth round of price increases for coking coal has been implemented, with major steel mills in East and North China raising procurement prices by CNY 50-55 per ton, leading to a cumulative increase of CNY 250-275 per ton [1] - Coking coal futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a limit up and closing with a nearly 7% increase [1] Group 2 - Since early July, coal prices have risen by CNY 450 per ton or 37%, reaching the highest point since the beginning of the year [2] - Despite entering a demand off-season, steel mills maintain high operating rates and iron output, while market speculation has improved due to expectations of reduced competition [2] - The company anticipates that while coal price averages may decline in 2025, second-quarter profits are likely at a bottom, with expectations for steady recovery in the second half and long-term [2]