Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping over 2% to a low of 1116.0 yuan, indicating potential market volatility and varying institutional outlooks on future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract reported at 1120.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.14% [1]. - The short-term iron and steel production remains high, but there are concerns about whether post-holiday demand for steel can sustain, which may limit the rebound potential for coking coal prices [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures suggests a range-bound trading strategy for the coking coal 2601 contract, recommending a trading range of 1100-1250 yuan/ton [2]. - Ruida Futures indicates a cautious approach, noting that macroeconomic factors and recent production adjustments may lead to a volatile market, with a recommendation for investors to manage risks [3]. - Dayue Futures anticipates a weak and stable price trend for coking coal in the short term, influenced by cautious procurement attitudes and high iron and steel production levels, suggesting a trading range of 1100-1150 yuan [4].

【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 11 日 【策略分析】 短期低位弱势震荡，基本面仍难支撑反弹 今日焦煤主力低开后偏弱震荡，收盘价格重心继续下探。国内矿山复产加快，蒙 煤通关车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢焦企业开工继续 回升，焦企一轮提涨；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源价格仍 承压，蒙煤二季度长协价下调。短期看，焦煤供需双增，现货市场情绪有所回暖， 但需求端缺乏弹性，供需宽松格局难有明显转变；近期盘面受宏观风险影响较大， 考虑到焦煤估值偏低，短期低位弱势震荡思路对待。 【期货行情】 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 短期低位弱势震荡，基本面仍难支撑反弹 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后偏弱震荡，最终收盘于 892.5 元/吨，- 25 元/吨，涨跌幅-2.72%。成交量 24.26 万手，持仓 21.05 万手，-2990 手，今 日焦煤 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 130035 手，+10213 手，前二十名空头持 仓为 153207 手，+11838 手，多增空增。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格， ...